VZCZCXRO2787
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0048 1330329
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130329Z MAY 09
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0411
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0398
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0166
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0192
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0420

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000048 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EPET EINV SENV ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: AS THIRD ANNIVERSARY APPROACHES, 
INFRASTRUCTURE RELOCATION PROGRESSES SLOWLY, BUT SUBSIDENCE AND 
METHANE BUBBLES URGE SPEED 
 
REF: SURABAYA 28 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Sidoarjo mudflow has buried over 700 
hectares over the past three years and threatens critical 
infrastructure.  While the East Java Governor is pushing speedy 
construction of a new transportation corridor around the 
mudflow, landowners are demanding compensation equivalent to 
victims whose homes and businesses are under mud.  New methane 
vents outside the containment dikes, obvious evidence of uneven 
subsidence, and problems pumping the mud out to sea are raising 
local concerns. The Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) has 
reportedly ordered new pumps using government funds, although 
Lapindo remains responsible for financing BPLS's pumping 
operations. End Summary. 
 
Slow Progress on Infrastructure 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As the third anniversary of the Sidoarjo mud flow's 
eruption approaches, local press reports highlight continuing 
concerns about the mud flow's impact beyond the existing 
containment dikes. According to the Jawa Pos, the mudflow has 
buried over 700 hectares of land.  Should the mudflow stop 
tomorrow, geologists reportedly predict that land subsidence 
will continue in the area within 2 km from the epicenter, 
eventually destroying the main road and railroad linking 
Surabaya's port with factories and farms farther east. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Officials insist construction of a new toll road, 
access road, and rail road will be completed by 2010. 
Unfortunately, land acquisition remains problematic.  Landowners 
are insisting on compensation equal to that received by the 
mudflow's victims -- Rp 1,000,000/square meters (USD 98) for 
land and Rp 1,500,000/square meters (USD 147) for buildings. 
According to the USAID-funded Geological Hazards Advisor, rumors 
around the BPLS offices suggest that the new East Java Governor 
is seeking support from Jakarta for the forceful acquisition of 
land and expedited construction despite the lack of an eminent 
domain provision in Indonesian law. 
 
Haste Might Be Wise 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The situation at the mudflow site gives officials 
reasons for haste.  As reported reftel, subsidence north and 
west of the mudflow has hampered BPLS efforts to pump mud into 
the Porong River and financial difficulties have left Lapindo 
unwilling to fund needed new pumps.  A BPLS official privately 
told the USAID Advisor that BPLS had decided to order the pumps 
directly, using as-yet-to-be-approved government funds.  The 
government would then bill Lapindo for reimbursement.  With 
pumping stopped, mud levels have risen 1.3 meters since early 
March, and now rise to just 2.6 meters below the crest of the 
western dike protecting the road and railroad.  At this rate, 
mud will overtop the dike in approximately 4 months, although 
buildup along the western side may force the mud toward 
available storage in ponds to the east. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Subsidence is uneven, and the tops of the dikes 
undulate with the subsidence rate.  Subsidence rates near the 
old toll road bridge are much higher than elsewhere and the 
levee nearby shows a distinct sag for approximately 100 meters. 
BPLS has proposed installing piezometers in the dikes to monitor 
water buildup and the impact of flowing water on the dikes 
themselves.  The USAID advisor suggests that seepage along the 
dikes may be the result of thin layers of water flowing against 
and infiltrating the dike as the mud level rises. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Methane bubbles are resurgent both inside the ponds 
and outside the containment dikes.  Gas venting through the 
pavement beneath the congested main road threatens to further 
disrupt traffic flow.  One new geyser has appeared not far from 
a staircase erected to allow tourists to view the mud from the 
top of the western dike.  BPLS has capped similar geysers with 
separators to drain of the water and vent the gas high into the 
air to avoid any ignition hazards. The new vent has been marked 
off with police tape to keep smokers away. 
 
MCCLELLAND