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P 141451Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5986
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000226 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: NUTS AND BOLTS OF BULGARIA'S JUNE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: For the second time since EU accession, 
Bulgarians go to the polls June 7 to elect 17 members of the 
European Parliament (MEPs).   Generating little public interest on 
their own, the MEP elections are viewed more as dress rehearsal for 
national parliamentary elections on July 5.  The MEP election 
campaign -- scheduled to open officially May 16, but effectively 
already in full swing -- will be dominated by domestic rather than 
European issues as the parties jockey for position before the real 
electoral race in July.  The opposition will hammer the coalition 
government for widespread corruption and bungling of Sofia's 
relations and reputation with the EU, while the ruling Socialists 
will tout their steady handling of the economy amid global financial 
turbulence.  Each of the parties has stacked appealing personalities 
at the top of the lists (the Socialists with FM Kalfin; the 
center-right with former FM Mihailova; the king's party with popular 
EU Commissioner Kuneva).  Polls suggest that Sofia Mayor Boyko 
Borissov's opposition party GERB will come out on top with the 
Socialists running second.  Expected low voter turnout will benefit 
parties with dependable electorate such as the extreme nationalist 
Ataka and the ethnic Turkish party MRF.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MEP ELECTION NUTS AND BOLTS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Bulgarians will elect 17 MEPs (down from 18 in the previous 
European Parliament) for a five-year term through a proportional 
representation system in which parties and coalitions put up 
rank-ordered national lists of candidates.  Voters cannot add or 
delete names on the party lists but they may mark their preferred 
candidate on the party list by checking the box opposite their name. 
 In practice, voters choose among slates of candidates ranked by 
party headquarters and each vote is effectively for party rather 
than individual.  Parties must obtain one seventeenth of all valid 
votes (or 5.88 percent) to participate in the distribution of the 17 
seats.  Seats are allocated to parties exactly according to their 
share of the national vote.  Votes of parties not passing the 
threshold go to the other parties using the method of the smallest 
remainder. 
 
¶3. (U) The election is organized and supervised by a Central 
Electoral Commission (CEC), whose 25 members are nominated by 
political parties represented in the national and European 
parliaments.   The same Commission will organize both the MEP 
elections and the general elections on July 5.  Bulgarian and EU 
citizens are eligible to run for an MEP seat if they have turned 21 
years of age and if they have resided within the EU for at least two 
years prior the vote. 
 
VOTING RULES 
------------ 
 
¶4. (U) Bulgarians and other EU citizens who have held official 
residence within an EU state for at least three months prior to the 
election date are eligible to vote in the Bulgarian MEP elections. 
The voting age is 18.  According to official data, there are 6.9 
million eligible voters in Bulgaria, but CEC officials acknowledge 
these numbers need updating and the true figure is probably about 
one million fewer.  Diplomatic and consular missions set up polling 
stations abroad if at least 20 voters have registered with the 
mission for the vote.  Bulgarian legislation does not allow absentee 
ballots -- citizens must cast their vote in person. 
 
CAMPAIGNS AND FINANCING 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The June 7 election is preceded by a three-week campaign 
beginning on May 16.  Campaigning is forbidden on election day but 
this is the first post-communist election in which campaigning will 
be allowed on the day preceding the vote.  Incumbent MPs, MEPs, 
members of EU bodies, and national government employees running in 
the election must take a leave of absence for the campaign.  Parties 
finance campaigns with their own funds and with donations from 
individual sponsors, which cannot top 10,000 leva (USD 6,666). 
Parties are banned from receiving donations from Bulgarian and 
foreign private companies, foreign individuals and governments. 
Parties and coalitions are required to set up a public registry 
listing sponsors of their election campaigns.  The overall amount 
used to finance the campaign of one candidate list cannot exceed two 
million leva (USD 1.3 million).   According to new election law 
amendments, all campaign materials must carry a sign warning that 
vote-buying and vote-selling are crimes. 
 
POLLING AND RESULTS 
------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Polling stations will open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. 
Exit polls are allowed, but results cannot be announced before 
polling stations close.  In practice this rule is consistently 
violated.  The CFC usually announces preliminary results within 
several hours of poll closing.  The CEC announces the results for 
parties and coalitions within three days of the vote and publishes 
the names of the elected MEPs within five days of the vote. 
 
SOFIA 00000226  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
DRESS REHEARSAL FOR JULY VOTE 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Generating little interest on their own, the MEP elections 
are seen as more of a dress rehearsal for the national parliamentary 
elections on July 5.  Parties will test and fine tune tactics and 
set the attack scenarios on opponents.  The Bulgarian Socialist 
Party (BSP), which leads the current three-party coalition, faces a 
strong challenge in both elections from Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov's 
opposition GERB party.  Expected low turnout (pollsters put it 
around 30 percent) will benefit parties with highly dependable 
electorate such as the extreme nationalist Ataka and the ethnic 
Turkish party MRF.  With these four parties likely to win seats, the 
real question will be the performance of several smaller groups: the 
center-right UDF-DSB "Blue Coalition," which has been plagued by 
high-profile infighting; the populist Order, Lawfulness and Justice 
party of controversial, so-called "corruption fighter" Yane Yanev, 
and ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's NMS, which has negligible popular 
support, but when it galvanizes core constituencies, has pulled out 
last-minute victories in the past. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The parties and coalitions are topping their tickets with 
some of their most recognizable personalities (many of whom will be 
used as mere attention-grabbers and are unlikely to take up seats in 
Brussels).  In a surprise move, the Socialists named respected 
Foreign Minister Ivailo Kalfin (who is not even a Socialist Party 
member) to head their ticket.  Another well-known face, Nadezhda 
Mihailova, will lead the center-right Blue Coalition ticket.  GERB's 
candidate list is headed by incumbent MEP Roumyana Zheleva, who is 
also said to be eyeing nomination as Bulgaria's next EU 
Commissioner.  The struggling party of former King and PM Simeon is 
pinning its hopes for a comeback on popular EC Commissioner Meglena 
Kouneva, highly regarded both at home and in Brussels. 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT:  Seen here as merely "the first round of the 
general elections," the June 7 European elections themselves hold 
little interest for Bulgarian voters.  The results will influence 
the second election, eliminating some players and boosting the 
chances of others, which raises the stakes for party strategists. 
Domestic issues will dominate the campaign as parties take off the 
gloves to leave rivals weak and bloodied before the July race.  It's 
going to get ugly. 
MCELDOWNEY