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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000273 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, 
NSC FOR ROSSELLO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EFIN ETRD ECON BR
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR JOSE SERRA STRONGLY POSITIONED FOR 2010, 
SAYS FORMER PRESIDENT CARDOSO 
 
REF: A. SAOPAULO090 
     ¶B. 08SAOPAULO679 
     ¶C. 08SAOPAULO581 
 
Classified By: Consul General Thomas White; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Sao Paulo Governor and leading candidate 
for the PSDB nomination Jose Serra will likely win Brazil's 
presidency in 2010, Brazil President Fernando Henrique 
Cardoso told the Ambassador on April 23.  Serra's academic 
background, his strong ethic of public service and the 
Governor's "rags-to-riches" success story will all help him 
during the election.  Serra rival Aecio Neves would be an 
excellent VP candidate, according to Cardoso, but now is not 
Neves's time.  Serra's likely rival, Dilma Roussef, is 
saddled with a series of problems, including lack of campaign 
experience, a sinking economy and her own health issues.  For 
her to win, President Lula would have to transfer to her his 
considerable popularity, something he could not do for the PT 
candidate in the 2008 Sao Paulo mayoral race (Ref B).  End 
Summary. 
 
Serra's Abilities, Rags-to-Riches Story Have Appeal 
 
¶2.  (C) Former Brazil President Fernando Henrique Cardoso 
profiled 2010 presidential candidate and Sao Paulo Governor 
Jose Serra in an April 23 meeting with the Ambassador. 
Cardoso characterized Serra as bright and worldly, citing his 
PhD from Cornell University.  Serra "does not fear people, is 
persistent, and has a high sense of purpose," said Cardoso. 
In his view, Serra is a dedicated public servant, who 
initially entered politics to help the public good.  He is 
the son of poor, Italian immigrants, who sold fruit on the 
street, and a product of the public school system.  Because 
of his tough "rags-to-riches" childhood, Cardoso believes 
Serra has an exceptional capacity to understand people. 
(Note:  See Ref A for further biographical information about 
Serra.  End Note.) 
 
¶4.  (C) Serra's plebian background mirrors that of current 
President Lula, and in Cardoso's view, will help propel him 
to victory in 2010 election.  Cardoso told the Ambassador 
that Serra is popular in the Northeast, with approval levels 
double that of his nearest competitor, Ciro Gomes.  Cardoso 
does not think PT nominee Dilma Roussef has enough campaign 
experience to win the presidential election.  Cardoso 
characterized the electorate as "arbitrary in its behavior" 
and does not think Lula can transfer votes successfully to 
Roussef.  Cardoso stated that he believes the majority of 
Lula's supporters will actually vote for Serra.  (Note: 
Reports surfaced after the Ambassador's conversation with 
Cardoso of Dilma undertaking a four-month chemotherapy 
program after having a cancerous tumor removed.  Local 
commentators have stated that this could hurt her prospects 
for the 2010 presidential race.  Several newspapers have 
already begun speculating that the PT might need to find 
another candidate.  End Note.) 
 
Minas Gerais Governor Neves: Not This Time 
 
¶5.  (C) Cardoso sees Minas Gerais Governor Aecio Neves as a 
strong choice for vice-president.  He told the Ambassador, 
"It is not his (Neves) time to be president."  Cardoso does 
believe, however, that Neves will be president some day. 
Regarding Serra's foreign policy advisors, he cited former 
Development Minister Sergio Amaral and former Foreign 
Minister Celso Lafer (a career diplomat) as his two closest 
confidants. 
 
Serra Strongly Positioned for 2010 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment:  Since Cardoso and Serra are products of the 
same political party (PSDB), Carodoso's positive profile of 
Serra is not surprising.  At the same time, his analysis 
 
SAO PAULO 00000273  002 OF 002 
 
 
appears sound.  Serra's rags to riches story, the challenge 
Lula faces in attempting to transfer his popularity to Dilma 
Roussef (something Lula could not do in the November 2008 Sao 
Paulo mayoral race; see Ref B), the possible drag on both the 
PT and Lula's popularity caused by the spreading economic 
crisis (Ref C), and Dilma's questionable health all set a 
positive stage for Serra for 2010.  Though a year and a half 
is an eternity in politics, Dilma faces a tough challenge.  A 
March poll showed that, were the election to be held today, 
Serra would beat the PT's Dilma Roussef by nearly 30 points. 
End Comment. 
 
¶7.  (U) This cable was coordinated with and cleared by 
Embassy Brasilia. 
WHITE