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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000954 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: PART 3 OF 3:  THE LIFE AND TIMES OF SOUTH AFRICA'S 
NEW PRESIDENT 
 
PRETORIA 00000954  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU)  This is the third of three messages that aim to 
reveal a comprehensive background picture of  Jacob Zuma, the 
President of the ruling African National Congress party 
(ANC), who was inaugurated as the fourth post-apartheid 
president of South Africa.  The first message was released 
before Zuma was inaugurated, and the last two will be 
released following his ascendancy.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Zuma Destined for Greatness 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The global emergence of the anti-apartheid and 
disinvestment movements gained momentum in the 1970s and the 
1980's, such that even the USG adopted a sanctions policy 
against the apartheid regime.  Under international 
diplomatic, political, military, and economic pressure, the 
SAG decided that apartheid was no longer sustainable. 
Negotiations with Nelson Mandela, who was serving a life 
sentence in Robben Island, opened the door for his release 
from prison and the un-banning of the African National 
Congress (ANC) and other opposition and anti-apartheid 
political parties.  When SAG President F.W. de Klerk 
un-banned the ANC in 1990, Jacob Zuma, the ANC's Intelligence 
and Security chief in exile, was one of the first high level 
ANC operatives to return to South Africa.  Zuma immediately 
became involved in negotiations concerned with dismantling 
apartheid laws and governance, facilitating the repatriation 
of those in exile, as well as the release of all political 
prisoners.  It was between 1990 and 1994 that Zuma achieved 
his most important success: negotiating an end to the spiral 
of violence between the ANC and the Zulu-based Inkatha 
Freedom Party (IFP) -- that believed in Zulu tradition and 
primacy -- and resulted in thousands of politically-related 
deaths.  Zuma is likely the most prominent ANC Zulu 
politician -- even eclipsing Mangosuthu Buthelezi.  Moreover, 
his own Zulu ethnicity and identity was a major asset, 
convincing the Zulus of KwaZulu Natal to support the ANC's 
leadership, the new ANC constitution, and reconciliation as 
he urged a non-violent way for the opposing political 
movements to communicate.  Though sporadic outbreaks of 
Zulu-ANC violence occurred up until 2009, the intensity, 
frequency, and number of deaths have reduced to a very small 
fraction compared to the early 1990s.  This achievement 
remains one of the most important bases for Zuma's stature, 
popularity and support among the ANC rank and file. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  For the decades of his imprisonment, Mandela was 
the most recognized icon of the ANC as well as a global 
symbol of freedom, perseverance, and resistance to apartheid. 
 Upon his release, he led the ANC's efforts to create a 
majority-based, multi-racial democratic system founded on a 
progressive constitution based on democratic best practices 
around the world.  In the period before the end of apartheid 
following the 1994 election which made Mandela the first 
democratically-elected president of South Africa, Zuma was 
appointed to key roles in the ANC and participated in their 
political decisions and negotiations.  In 1994, his 
supporters say, he stepped aside so that Thabo Mbeki could 
stand unopposed as Mandela's Deputy President.  He had one 
unsuccessful campaign to become the premier of KwaZulu Natal 
Qunsuccessful campaign to become the premier of KwaZulu Natal 
and in 1994 was appointed the Deputy Premier of that province 
by his old comrade and sometimes adversary Thabo Mbeki. 
Between 1994 and 1996, Zuma was KwaZulu Natal's provincial 
chairman of the ANC as well as MEC for Economic Development 
and Tourism.  In 1996, he was re-elected as Chair of the ANC 
in KwaZulu Natal and the same year became the ANC's National 
Chairperson -- one of the top six jobs in the party. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  His highest office -- prior to his current status 
as President-elect of South Africa following a vote in 
Parliament on May 6, 2009 -- was ANC Deputy President and 
Member of Parliament, as he served as Deputy State President 
in the Mbeki Administration from 1999 to 2005.  Upon 
attaining the party Deputy Presidency, by tradition of 
succession in the ANC, Zuma was believed to be Mbeki's heir 
apparent, destined to succeed to the presidency in his time. 
But there were bumps in the road.  He served as an unofficial 
 
PRETORIA 00000954  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
peace mediator and diplomatic troubleshooter in the region 
(Zimbabwe, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) 
and helped the ANC build a rapport with trade unions, 
traditional leaders, and other political parties.  Zuma 
developed the reputation of being humble, charismatic, loyal, 
hard-working, and committed to improving the lives of South 
Africans.  In 1999, based on this profile, he was appointed 
Deputy President of the ANC and became the Deputy President 
of South Africa in the first Mbeki administration. He was 
dismissed by Mbeki as SAG Deputy President in 2005 as a 
result of being implicated in the corruption trial of his 
friend and financial advisor Schabir Shaik.  In 2006, he was 
charged with rape of a family friend, but was acquitted. 
Following Shaik's conviction of bribing Zuma for personal 
gain, Zuma was indicted and charged with multiple counts of 
corruption, accepting bribes, tax evasion, and money 
laundering. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Zuma's rise to the pinnacle of South African 
politics at the same time that serious questions about his 
character were headline news is an astonishing political 
achievement in itself.  Zuma is known as a populist whose 
rise occurred in partnership with leftist constituencies in 
the ANC.  Despite criminal allegations against him, he 
remained popular in the party, unlike Mbeki who came to be 
hated.  Zuma is particularly popular among Zulu ethnic and 
Youth Leagues; their defense of him claims he has served the 
people well, there are others worse than him, and he is much 
better than Mbeki.  Some of his most ardent supporters 
promised to kill and die for him while others threatened that 
if Zuma were to be convicted, "blood would flow" and they 
would make the country "ungovernable."  To them, Zuma had a 
"right" to be president.  Mbeki believed that a Zuma 
presidency would be a disaster for South Africa and would 
split the ANC.  Zuma's supporters counter-claimed that Mbeki 
was a disaster for the poor and he was the one splitting the 
party, creating a strong presidency that acted without 
reference to party instruction.  In 2007, well after the 
conviction of his friend Shaik for bribery and corruption, 
Zuma was also indicted for having a corrupt relationship with 
Shaik.  The charges were set aside in September 2008 due to 
lack of preparedness by the prosecutors to proceed with the 
case. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Despite Mbeki's intellect and experience as well as 
his apparent success as a leader, politician, and diplomat, 
Zuma out-maneuvered him by manipulating the party base 
through the district offices and portraying himself as the 
victim via the image-making machinery of the ANC.  Pundits 
thought Mbeki was the smartest and most effective political 
leader of his generation, but on December 17, 2007 in 
Polokwane, Limpopo, the ANC declared Zuma the clear favorite, 
beginning Mbeki's surprising slide into political obscurity. 
Days following his election, corruption charges were re-filed 
against Zuma, causing a leadership crisis in the ANC that was 
only resolved in September 2008 when the Zuma-led NEC forced 
Mbeki to resign as President of South Africa -- a deliberate 
act of triumphant revenge just eight months short of the end 
of his second five year term.  Kgalema Motlanthe (septel), 
Qof his second five year term.  Kgalema Motlanthe (septel), 
the ANC Deputy President, was sworn in as South Africa's 
third post-apartheid president, but his seven month tenure 
was purposefully that of a care-taker, marking time until the 
president in waiting took office. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Following a year-and-a-half of controversial high 
profile court challenges, appeals, and counter-suits, all 
charges against Zuma were dropped only weeks before the 
election in April 2009.  His supporters' adoration only grew 
as his detractors characterized him as an unlettered and 
corrupt buffoon surrounded by crass and intimidating 
socialist sycophants.  Zuma loyalists ignored critiques that 
he is a charismatic populist and political chameleon who 
tells each audience exactly what they want to hear, that he 
is a man without his own vision or policy center.  His 
supporters understand that Zuma has one over-riding policy -- 
loyalty to the ANC and improving the lives of the rural poor 
above all else. 
 
-------------------------- 
Keys To Zuma's Personality 
-------------------------- 
 
 
PRETORIA 00000954  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Zuma has clearly weathered numerous storms during 
recent years and he used several tactics of political 
survival that give clues to his personality and leadership 
style.  First, he used the power of persuasion to build 
strong alliances.  Faced with enormous challenges to his 
political career, Zuma built a strong support team and pulled 
his family close to him.  He also relied heavily on his 
contacts in KwaZulu Natal  Second, he leveraged on the 
infrastructure and networks of his friends.  The perceived 
political conspiracy against Zuma became a reality in the 
minds of many South Africans -- including Pietermaritzburg 
High Court Judge Chris Nicholson -- and this triggered a 
groundswell of sympathy for him.  The ANC Youth League, the 
Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), and the 
South African Communist Party (SACP) gave him a political 
platform to express his views.  He also worked closely with 
business people who had local and international networks. 
They extended their influence so he could counter the 
negative images that his adversaries had built of him. 
Third, he remained focused on key tasks.  Throughout the 
political crisis he faced after Mbeki fired him, Zuma focused 
on his oft-repeated assertion that he was innocent and that 
he was the victim of a systematic abuse of power.  Fourth, 
Zuma understood that the main thrust of the political 
conspiracy would have been to remove him from the ANC, and 
the ANC from him.  His best response would be to live the 
values of the ANC throughout the crisis period, and become 
the epitome of an ANC cadre -- which he did.  He built 
extensive relationships in Parliament and with ANC branches 
across the country.  As he began to live the values of the 
ANC, the ruling party found it more difficult to distance 
itself from him. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Fifth, Zuma delegated effectively while never 
abandoning his responsibilities.  Zuma is outstanding at 
delegating jobs to those around him.  According to those 
closest to Zuma, "his demeanor in the face of adversity 
helped to create a positive atmosphere inside his war-rooms." 
 Sixth, he always maintained the moral high ground and 
remained authentic throughout.  No matter how hard detractors 
tried to break his spirit by name-calling and leaking 
information, Zuma never lost his composure.  In the midst of 
his toughest times, Zuma visited his working-class supporters 
and the unemployed.  Seventh, he improvised his communication 
methods -- and found success doing so.  When he realized that 
much of the media in South Africa was against him becoming 
the next leader, he resorted to positive imagery.  He became 
the dignified underdog, and he painted those against him as 
shameless bullies and cowards.  Last, Zuma used smart 
aggression as a tool to wear down his opponents.  Throughout 
the most difficult times of the past few years, Zuma came 
across as reluctant to draw first blood, only displaying 
subtle determination to take the fight to his aggressors. 
This is consistent with a leader that is aware of his own 
strengths -- smart power. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  As Zuma's presidency begins, many outstanding 
questions remain about his government and his policies.  His 
close association with the ideological left of the ANC 
Qclose association with the ideological left of the ANC 
alliance has raised some worries about the impact on economic 
policy by close Zuma allies in the SACP and COSATU.  He has 
reassured investors their assets will be secure under his 
administration, but has also called for the redistribution of 
wealth in the interests of the poor.  The ANC has led the 
world to expect a more intimate intertwining of the ruling 
party and the state as well as a deployment of public 
officials whose standard of conduct and effectiveness will be 
their loyalty to Zuma and the ANC and their willingness to 
carry out ANC policies.  With a relatively weak opposition 
but respected courts and activist civil society, there is 
optimism that a Zuma administration will, at worst, muddle 
through.  There are many top performers in the ANC, and the 
ANC tradition of collective decision-making will define the 
policy context of the Zuma administration.  One can only 
guess how South Africa will evolve under a Zuma presidency -- 
which he promises will only be for one term.  South Africans 
have suffered many more and greater tragedies than an elected 
government with a near two-thirds majority.  It is trite to 
 
PRETORIA 00000954  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
say, but "time will tell."  In this case, such a statement 
rings true for South Africa in 2009. 
LA LIME