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R 051316Z MAY 09
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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000357 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA:  MARTINELLI WINS BIG 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR BARBARA J. STEPHENSON.  REASONS:  1.4 (D). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The opposition's Alliance for Change presidential 
candidate Ricardo Martinelli defeated governing Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD) candidate by over twenty points and 
more than 300,000 votes on May 3.  Martinelli also appears to 
have wrested gained control of the 71-seat National Assembly 
from the PRD as his alliance is likely to win at least 37 
seats.  Martinelli called for all Panamanians to come 
together to work for the change on which he camapign. 
Herrera took responsibility for her loss and promised to lead 
the opposition.  Torrijos congratulated Martinelli on this 
victory and announced they would meet on May 5 to begin the 
transition.  Several seasoned PRD veterans -- including Pedro 
Miguel Gonzalez, who is under federal indictment in 
connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S. serviceman -- lost 
their National Assembly seats.  Coming from behind, the 
opposition's Bosco Vallarino defeated the PRD's Bobby 
Velasquez to win the race for Mayor of Panama City, the 
country's second most important elected office.  Embassy 
observers, as well as Organization of American States (OAS) 
observers and domestic observation missions.  Martinelli will 
now face considerable challenge getting his administration up 
and running. 
 
---------------------- 
Big Win for Martinelli 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Alliance for Change presidential candidate Ricardo 
Martinelli defeated governing Revoltionary Democratic Party 
(PRD) presidential candidate Balbina Herrera in a landslide 
on May 3.  As of 11:00 pm on May 3, Panama's Electoral 
Tribunal (TE) reported that Martinelli had secured 60 percent 
fo the vote, and Herrera got 37 percent.  Sinc the 1989 
restoration of democracy, Martinelli is not only the first 
candidate to win by more than 50 percent of the vote but also 
the candidate to win by the largest margin (23 points). 
Herrera acknowledged her defeat in a short address at PRD 
headquarters shortly after the TE magistrates called 
Martinelli to inform him of his victory.  Martinelli then 
made remarks to his supporters.  In a brief televised 
statement, President Martin Torrijos congratulated Martinelli 
on his victory and said that he would meet with Martinelli on 
May 5 to begin the transition.  Martinelli will be 
inaugurated on July 1. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  According to Panama City television broadcaster 
Telemetro on the morning of May 4, the unofficial results, 
reflecting unofficial reporting from 92.41 percent of the 
voting tables, were: 
 
Candidate:                Percent:            Votes: 
----------                --------            ------ 
Ricardo Martinelli        60.31               886,819 
Balbina Herrera           37.34               549,002 
Guillermo Endara           2.35                34,551 
Blank ballots              1.17                17,268 
Spoiled ballots            1.90                27,923 
 
Telemetro reported that 68.61 percent of voters or a total of 
1,515,623 voters cast their ballots.  Panama City leading 
daily La Prensa reported on May 4 that Martinelli's 
Democratic Change (CD) brought in 54 percent of the 
coalition's total votes while alliance partners the 
Panamenista Party acounted for 30.5 percent, the Movement of 
Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA) brought in 9.8 
percent; and Patriotic Union (UP) delivered 5.5 percent of 
the total.  Post will report final official results SEPTEL. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Martinelli:  Victory for "all the people of Panama" 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a short victory speech to supporters on the 
evening of May 3, Martinelli said that his victory was a 
victory "of all the people of Panama."  He called "on all 
those who opposed us, who are also Panamanians" to join him 
to "begin a new day, a day of change."  Echoing calls made 
during the closing weeks of his campaign, Martinelli said, 
"We need to put our best minds, independents, the best PRD 
members because they have very good people too, the best 
members of this alliance, and all Panamanians" to the 
challenge of changing Panama.  Concluding his remarks, he 
said, "We need all of you to make this change that Panama 
demands and wants to come true." 
 
¶5. (SBU) In impromptu remarks to the press on May 4, 
Martinelli made news by giving his first indications 
regarding cabinet and other high-level appointments: 
 
-- Demetrio "Jimmy" Papadimitriu, his closest campaign 
advisor, would serve as Minister of the Presidency; 
-- Romulo de Roux would be Minister of Canal Affairs; 
-- Giselle de Calcagno, who broke with the PRD to support 
Martinelli, would remain at the helm of the Authority for 
Medium, Small, and Micro Enterprises (AMPYME); 
-- former FM in the Moscoso Administration Jaime Aleman would 
be Panama's Ambassador to the U.S.; and 
-- Gustavo Perez, Jr. would be named the Director of the 
Panamanian National Police (PNP). 
 
Additionally, he said he would offer morning television talk 
show host Lucy Molinar the Ministry of Education.  Regarding 
the U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreement, Martinelli simply 
noted, "We need to speak with the U.S. Ambassador." 
 
---------------------------- 
Balbina:  "I am responsible" 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) "The Panamanian people are sovereign, and I will 
respect their decision,"  Herrera stated on the evening of 
May 3 in making her concession speech that was marked 
primarily by her expressions of gratitude for her supporters 
and calls for the party to continue to fight for a better 
Panama.  Responding to questions after her concession, 
Herrera said, "I am the only one responsible (for my 
electoral loss), I am the leader, I am the candidate.  I will 
not blame anyone else.  I am the candidate, and I assume 
responsibility for this campaign."  Indirectly answering 
former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares assertion 
that the PRD's National Executive Committee (CEN), of which 
Herrera is president, should resign, Herrera said, "No, we 
will continue.  This executive committee was elected for five 
years, and we will respect that decision.  Those who think 
that there will be changes in the party's leadership are 
mistaken." 
 
----------------------------- 
National Assembly Projections 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Early unofficial projections broadcast by RPC radio 
on May 4 indicated that the four-party Alliance for Change 
would win control of the National Assembly, though only by a 
slim margin.  RPC reported that, the Alliance for Change 
would win at least 37 seats with the Panamenistas winning 19 
seats, CD 12, UP 4, and MOLIRENA 2.  The same radio 
broadcast, projected that the PRD would win 21 seats and its 
alliance partner, the Popular Party (PP), 1 seat while former 
President Endara's Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) party 
was projected to win 1 seat.  Independents were projected to 
win 2 seats.  These projections only accounted for 62 of the 
71 seats in the National Assembly, however, as 8 other seats 
remained to be determined. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Several PRD incumbents lost their seats, including 
most notably Pedro Miguel Gonzalez who is under U.S. federal 
indictment in connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S. 
serviceman in Panama. Additionally, current PRD National 
Assembly President Raul Rodriguez and Majority Leader Leandro 
Avila also lost re-election as did former National Assembly 
President Jerry Wilson.  Torrijos Second VP Arosemena -- 
essentially the standard bearer for the PRD's minor alliance 
partner, the Popular Party -- failed to win a seat. 
 
------------------- 
Major Mayoral Races 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) In the hotly contested Panama City Mayoral race, 
opposition candidate Bosco Vallarino appears to have come 
from behind to defeat PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez by a 
narrow but comfortable margin.  With 1,004 of 1,162 voting 
tables reporting, CD/Panamenista/MOLIRENA candidate Bosco 
Vallarino held a comfortable lead with 45.47 percent of the 
vote and 139,957 votes ahead of PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez 
by 17,868 votes.  La Prensa, noting that he had conceded 
defeated, reported on May 4 that Velasquez had won 40 percent 
of the vote.  Meanwhile, UP candidate Miguel Antonio Bernal 
took 14 percent of the vote. 
 
¶10. (SBU) PRD San Miguelito mayor Hector Carrasquilla, 
according to a May 4 broadcast by Telemetro, held on to win 
election in Panama's second largest municipality.  With most 
voting tables reporting, Carrasquilla was leading the vote 
count by about 7,000 votes. 
 
--------------------- 
The Transition Starts 
--------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Shortly after Martinelli's victory speech, 
President Torrijos went on television and congratulated 
Martinelli on his victory.  He noted that he had spoken with 
Martinelli and said that they would meet on May 5 to "begin 
the transition."  Martinelli acknowledged that he would meet 
with Torrijos on May 5 and said he would be accompanied by 
VP-elect Juan Carlos Varela and Papadimitriu. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) Exceeding the most optimistic predictions, Martinelli 
has won an enormous victory -- "a very big tsunami," he told 
international election observers.  The scope of his victory 
will be become apparent in the coming days as National 
Assembly and local-level races are determined.  Now, 
Martinelli must turn his attention to a much harder task than 
winning election:  governing.  It will be months before a 
functioning Martinelli Administration is up and running.  He 
won with the support of a complex four-party alliance, he is 
aided by only a small handful of young advisors that he truly 
trusts, and yet will need to grapple with tough issues in the 
immediate to near-term, including efforts to secure U.S. 
ratification of the FTA and security matters in the Darien. 
He willl need consolidate his base of support with the 
alliance and possibly including reaching out to the PRD to 
build the consensus necessary to tackle challenges. 
STEPHENSON