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FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9390
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000341 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJ: LIBERALS UNDER IGNATIEFF VOW TO RAISE THEIR GAME 
 
REF:  OTTAWA 324 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Federal Liberals emerged from their recent 
convention more united, out of debt, ahead in the polls, and newly 
confident that they will form Canada's next government.  However, 
the party remains far from battle-ready, despite a push from some 
Liberal MPs to trigger a snap election.  Grassroots activists 
underscored the urgent need seriously to "raise our game" before any 
return to the polls.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) More than 2,500 federal Liberals turned out April 30 to May 3 
to "pull up their sleeves," renew the Liberal Party, and "earn the 
trust of Canadians" at the party's biennial convention in Vancouver. 
 Delegates confirmed Michael Ignatieff as leader of the Liberal 
Party by a vote of 97 pct.  In post-convention interviews, Ignatieff 
declared his party ready and "fit to govern," pledging by June to 
have a policy platform that would focus on citizenship, education, 
help for aboriginals, reform of Employment Insurance, literacy, and 
Canada's leadership role in the world.  Delegates largely declined 
opportunities to "blue sky" new policy ideas, focusing instead 
mostly on election readiness, fundraising, and internal 
organization. 
 
NO CONSENSUS ON ELECTION TIMING 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Differences on election timing were evident between some 
Liberal MPs as well as Ottawa-based staff and activists on the 
ground.  Some MPs claimed to be "ready to go" to the polls soon, 
perhaps by June.  A number of young staffers in Ignatieff's 
Ottawa-based Opposition Leader's Office (OLO) also favored an early 
election.  However, many activists, former candidates, and riding 
presidents -- especially in ridings not currently held by Liberal 
M.P.s -- underscored that the party was far from election-ready. 
One self-described "life-long" Liberal (who had worked twelve years 
in Ottawa in former Prime Minister Trudeau's office in the 1970s) 
candidly warned that "we're stony broke, and if people up in Ottawa 
get carried away [and trigger an election], we're in deep s--t." 
Some activists pointed to poor communications, lack of money, and 
outdated organization as evidence the party still needed 
significantly to "raise its game" in order to win the next election, 
whenever it might be. 
 
TIME FOR CHANGE 
--------------- 
 
¶4. (U) In a speech to the convention, Alf Apps (who had just won by 
acclamation the post of the Liberal Party's new National President) 
acknowledged that he "got" the need for "revitalization."  Reforms 
to fundraising and party organization had already begun before the 
convention, he noted.  Delegates overwhelmingly endorsed a change to 
a one member/one vote system for electing future party leaders. 
Ignatieff had personally campaigned for the change, which supporters 
argued will be more democratic, simpler, and cheaper -- C$10 per 
member, compared to C$2,000 per member for a traditional delegated 
convention like this. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In April, the party's "Change Commission" (initiated in 
late 2008) had reported that party machinery was moribund in large 
areas of the country.  Outgoing National President Doug Ferguson 
agreed that the party needed to "professionalize," advising 
delegates to "throw the bums out" if their local party officials 
underperform.  Delegates griped about lack of resources, as well as 
the need for better communications with members beyond the national 
headquarters'"ka-ching" barrage of fundraising emails. 
 
¶6.  (U) In one workshop for approximately 100 people, one-third of 
participants identified themselves as new Liberal Party members. 
Most described themselves as previously non-political;  some noted 
QMost described themselves as previously non-political;  some noted 
specifically that Ignatieff's leadership and/or anger over Prime 
Minister Harper's performance had motivated them to join the party. 
 
 
PUTTING GAS IN THE TANK 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) As the convention opened, Elections Canada reported that the 
federal Liberal Party had raised C$1.8 million in the first quarter 
of 2009, up C$977,801 over donations in the first quarter of 2008. 
However, the total was still less than half of the C$4.3 million 
that the Conservatives raised during the same period.  (In 2008, the 
Liberals had raised a total of C$6 million from a base of 
approximately 50,000 donors, far behind the C$21 million raised by 
the Conservatives.)  New National Director Rocco Rossi has the task 
of "putting gas in the tank," using state-of-the-art customized 
voter tracking software developed by the U.S-based Voter Activation 
Network (VAN), which the Obama presidential campaign had used. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Rossi specifically emphasized to delegates the need to link 
fundraising and membership engagement on the community development 
model of the Obama campaign.  In workshops, delegates reacted 
 
OTTAWA 00000341  002 OF 002 
 
 
positively to "Liberal 308," a new strategy to focus on all 308 
national ridings, in contrast to recent campaigns that had 
emphasized "winnable" (mostly urban) ridings, which had left large 
swathes of Canada without any Liberal representation.  Although a 
major incentive would be the C$1.95 subsidy for every Liberal vote 
in an election, delegates also argued the change would be better for 
morale and would also help to reinforce the Liberal "brand" across 
the country. 
 
THINKING ABOUT SUBSTANCE, A LITTLE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Delegates aired policy in four Policy Think Tanks:  Canada 
and the World: Earning Our Place at the Table; The Economy, 
Environment and Energy; Rural Canada; and, Social Justice and 
Multiculturalism.  Afghanistan came up only briefly, however.  A 
majority of delegates opposed a continued combat role after 2011, 
although Liberal MP and National Defence Critic Denis Coderre 
underlined that Liberals would have to be "realistic," adding that 
"we are at a crossroads," with an opportunity for Canada "to make a 
difference" in Afghanistan.  Former Foreign Minister and one-time 
interim Liberal leader Bill Graham warned that "the world needs 
Canada to play a role" and that there are "further challenges 
ahead," winning strong applause. 
 
¶10. (U) Delegates voted on 32 prioritized -- but non-binding -- 
policy resolutions on a range of topics, including calls for: 
 
-- the government "actively and aggressively" to assert Canada's 
northern sovereignty and expand its military capacity in the North; 
 
 
-- establishment of a National Water Strategy, a ban on bulk water 
exports, and talks with the U.S. and Mexico to exclude water from 
NAFTA; and, 
 
-- consideration of a carbon tax (a reprise of Stephane Dion's 
"Green Shift" that Ignatieff had already disavowed in favor of a 
cap-and-trade system). 
 
¶11. (SBU) With respect to Canada-U.S. relations, Graham also noted 
that the "U.S. has a President who thinks the way we do about the 
world" and argued that "this is a chance to work with it."  A number 
of delegates cited in private conversations "synergy" between the 
new U.S. administration and a future Liberal government.  An 
enthusiastic crowd cheered five images of Ignatieff with President 
Obama during his visit to Ottawa in February as part of a video 
backdrop to Ignatieff's keynote speech to the Convention. 
 
GOOD NEWS FROM THE POLLS 
------------------------ 
 
¶12. (SBU) A recent Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put Liberal 
support at 34 pct nationally, up eight pct since October, with 
support for the Conservatives only 29 pct, down eight points.   The 
Liberals made notable gains in Quebec, specifically to the detriment 
of the Conservatives, while drawing from the New Democratic Party's 
support in Ontario.  Notable were gains among female voters.  In a 
separate Ipsos Reid poll, the Liberals had a 36 pct to 33 pct lead 
over the Conservatives.   However, fifty-five pct of respondents in 
the Ipsos-Reid poll said that the Liberals were not yet ready to 
govern, and seventy-two pct did not want the opposition to trigger 
an election any time soon. 
 
BREESE