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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000997 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: TIGHT BATTLE IN RAJASTHAN 
 
REF: A. BHARAT BALLOT SERIES 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 470 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  While the race is close and tight in 
Rajasthan, the Congress Party is expected to pick up between 
5-10 seats from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 
parliamentary election.  Polling was on May 7 and results 
will be declared on May 16.  The Congress strategy was to 
pick strong candidates based on caste considerations and ride 
the momentum from its December 2008 win in the state assembly 
elections.  The BJP sought to present a united face after 
quelling the infighting that it felt was responsible for its 
loss in December.  Caste dominates all issues in Rajasthan 
elections.  The state is an important battleground for both 
parties because any swing in seats is magnified due to the 
straight head-to-head nature of  contests in this two-party 
state.  End Summary. 
 
Neck-to-Neck-Race 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Poloff and PolFSN traveled to Rajasthan to assess 
the political climate in the state ahead of the May 7 
parliamentary elections.  Besides the urban centers of 
Jaipur, Jodhpur and Ajmer, Poloff and PolFSN visited the more 
remote and smaller townships of rural Rajasthan such as Pali, 
Khemsar, Nagaur and Sikar.  Based on meetings with 
politicians, journalists, civic leaders and businessmen, it 
was clear the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) were engaged in a tight fight.  Results of the May 7 
polls will be known on May 16 when votes are counted and 
results declared for all of India's 543 election districts. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) A seat-by-seat analysis of Rajasthan's 25 
constituencies with several politicians and journalists 
pointed to a split result: each national party was favored in 
nine districts; it was too close to call in five districts; 
and independent candidates were ahead in the remaining two 
districts.  Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could be a 
factor in tilting the race in one of two districts, but only 
because of the stature and funding of the BSP candidate in 
these districts and not because of any appeal that Mayawati 
or her party has in the state.  The Communist Party of India 
(CPM) could play a similar role in another seat, again 
because of the strong credentials of the candidate, not 
because of any communist leanings of the electorate. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) With the Congress holding only 4 of the 25 seats in 
the current parliament, it stands to gain 5-10 seats in the 
state depending on how many of the five close races it can 
clinch.  This score card is in line with what we heard during 
our February visit to the state (ref b) before candidates had 
been selected and the campaigns have begun.  The problem for 
the Congress Party is that as poll day approached, the races 
got tighter and some of its more secure races started 
becoming toss ups or at least tough battles. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Post previously profiled Rajasthan (Ref B) as a 
two-party state with no third party posing any real challenge 
to the Congress Party and the BJP, which have in recent 
decades alternated in power in the state legislature.  With a 
population of about 60 million, it is as large as Italy. 
Rajasthan is a poor or backward state in terms of development 
indicators, but has taken steps recently to break out of the 
"bimaru" (sick) tag. 
 
Congress Strategy: Still Riding the Momentum 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Congress Party has devoted a great deal of 
attention to candidate selection, carefully balancing caste 
considerations with other compulsions, such as finding a 
district for young political star Sachin Pilot, who was 
displaced from his seat by redistricting, or forcing a 
 
NEW DELHI 00000997  002 OF 004 
 
 
Mumbai-based wealthy industrialist and funding source on a 
district despite the disadvantage of his outsider tag.  The 
party hopes to continue riding the momentum from its December 
2008 win in the state assembly elections.  Chief Minister 
Ashok Gehlot has cautiously avoided any controversial 
decisions and continues to be a low-key but effective 
tactician. 
 
BJP: Putting its House in Order 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The BJP has put aside most of the infighting that 
contributed significantly to its defeat in December 2008. 
Former Chief Minister Vasundhra Raje continues to be the face 
of the party in the state but she has made peace with her 
adversaries in the party.  Former Vice President Bhairon 
Singh Shekhawat is quiet.  Former Foreign Minister Jaswant 
Singh is fighting from West Bengal while his son is defending 
his Barmer seat in Rajasthas.  Ghanshyam Tiwari has got the 
Jaipur seat he wanted and is is in line for a ministerial 
post in Delhi should the BJP form the next government.  With 
the squabbling over, the BJP is putting up a tough fight, 
knowing full well that it will lose ground from its 21-4 
sweep of 2004 but trying to limit the damage. 
 
No-Issue Campaign 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) One of the most pressing development issues in 
Rajasthan is water.  The arid state suffers from a large 
shortfall of not only water for irrigation, but especially of 
drinking water.  In Nagaur and Pali, we heard of long lines 
in the townships and villages waiting for the water tankers 
that the government provides every four to six days.  The 
vernacular newspaper in Pali had on its front page the story 
about the government restarting a train which would make a 
daily water run to bring water by tanker cars from 200 
kilometers away.  Journalists in Nagaur spoke at length about 
the delayed plans to bring water via a 100 kilometer pipeline 
from an irrigation canal that feeds water from the Bhakra Dam 
in Punjab to the farmlands of northern Rajasthan.  Despite 
the almost overriding importance of the water issue to daily 
life in Nagaur and Pali, local political experts did not 
think it was an election issue.  In their calculations, the 
caste affiliations of the candidates and caste-related 
machinations of their campaigns would determine the winners. 
 
Caste is Everything 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Vinod Modi, former BJP state legislator and 
unsuccessful aspirant for a Congress Party nomination for the 
parliamentary elections this time, told PolOff that the 
"caste factor" this year is more intense than any other time 
that he has witnessed.  Former BJP Minister of Power Gajendra 
Singh agreed, noting that caste is becoming the central 
factor and increasingly the only factor in how people vote in 
the state.  Every conversation about the polls had at its 
core a discussion of the caste alignments in the district and 
how the selection of candidates by both parties and their 
respective ground game was playing into these caste 
equations. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The two principal caste-related political 
fault-lines in Rajasthan are Rajput vs. Jat and Gujjar vs. 
Meena.  While the Rajputs are traditionally BJP-leaning, the 
Congress has queered the pitch by selecting three members of 
erstwhile Rajput royal families, which still invoke loyalty 
among the Rajput voters, to contest on its behalf.  The Jats 
historically have sided with the Congress Party in the state 
but are now turning against it because of perceived anti-Jat 
sentiments of the party's chief minister in the state.  The 
Gujjars tended to lean towards the Congress while the Meenas 
were more sympathetic to the BJP.  The 2007-2008 unrest in 
 
NEW DELHI 00000997  003 OF 004 
 
 
the state over the Gujjar demands for affirmative action 
benefits similar to that enjoyed by the Meenas and the 
then-BJP state government's response to it has alienated the 
Meenas from the BJP but allowed the party to make some 
in-roads into the Gujjar vote. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The traditional Rajput/Jat and Gujjar/Meena 
alignments, therefore, have been significantly disturbed just 
in time for the parliamentary election.  A dozen other 
significant identity groups, among them Dalit, tribal, 
Muslim, Brahmin, Bishnoi and Vaishya, make the electoral 
dynamics of Rajasthan a complicated balancing act that 
parties have to navigate with careful candidate selections 
and a strong on-the-ground game. 
 
Turning Out the Stars 
--------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Given the close races in Rajasthan, both parties 
rolled out their star campaigners.  Rajasthan hosted Prime 
Minister Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the 
last week before polling day, each stopping off in different 
constituencies that were seeing close races.  The BJP's 
national stars Prime Ministerial candidate L.K. Advani, 
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and state in-charge 
Venkaiah Naidu. 
 
Muted Affair 
------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) In Rajasthan, as in many other states visited by 
Embassy New Delhi officers, there was little visible sign of 
campaigning and electioneering.  We saw only scattered 
campaign-related bill boards in some of the urban centers. 
There were few flags or fliers or posters or 
loudspeaker-armed vehicles.  The oppressive heat wave had no 
doubt contributed to the muted atmosphere but the Election 
Commission's expenditure limits have also played a part in 
muting what would have been in past cycles loud, colorful and 
boisterous campaigns.  Security considerations and a heavy 
police presence made Jodhpur eerily quiet the day Prime 
Minster made a campaign stop in the city.  His rally was 
disappointing and sparsely attended, according to one 
interlocutor. 
 
Weddings and the Heat Wave 
--------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Rajasthan was under a heat wave during the week of 
April 27, with temperatures touching 117 degrees Fahreneit. 
Many of our interlocutors worried that the energy sapping 
temperatures have dampened campaigning and would affect voter 
turnout on game day.  They also noted that the May 7 poll day 
coincidentally turned out to be an auspicious day for 
weddings by Hindu astrological charts.  They expressed 
concern that thousands of weddings scheduled for that day 
would divert voter attention and result in low turnout. 
There was two directly opposite and equally firmly held views 
to who would benefit from lower turnout: the Congress, 
because it appeals to lower income groups who tend to vote in 
large numbers in India; and the BJP, because its voters are 
more disciplined and more committed to the party (Note: 
Actual statewide turnout in Rajasthan on May 7 was about 48 
percent, slightly below the 50 percent as in the 2004 
parliamentary election but significantly below the 68 percent 
recorded in the December 2008 state assembly elections.) 
 
Voter Reticence 
--------------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Several districts we visited happened coincidently 
to be ones in which the race was close.  We heard several 
journalists and analysts explain their uncertainty about the 
results by noting that the Rajasthani voter in recent 
 
NEW DELHI 00000997  004 OF 004 
 
 
election cycles has become notoriously close mouthed about 
his preferences.  Two journalists told us separately that in 
their experience only 10 percent of those questioned about 
their intention will answer honestly, thus raising serious 
questions about opinion surveys.  According to these 
journalists, voters increasingly believe they have nothing to 
gain by sharing their views and much to lose if they alienate 
someone by their answers, which they believe are never kept 
confidential. 
 
Comment: Crucial State for Both Parties 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) For both the Congress Party and the BJP, Rajasthan 
is a crucial state because it appears to be the only sizeable 
state in which there could be a significant swing in seats 
between the two parties.  The head-to-head battle in this 
two-party state makes any swing doubly important - a gain of 
five seats means a swing of ten seats.  It is for this reason 
that Rajasthan saw an intense battle with the BJP fighting 
hard to limit its losses and the Congress seeing it as a ripe 
opportunity to make up for slippage elsewhere. 
BURLEIGH