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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000988 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 2009:  MUSLIM VOTE DIVIDED IN 
WESTERN UTTAR PRADESH 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: PolOff and PolFSN traveled to western UP to 
visit five parliamentary districts where Muslims make up a 
large minority, and in some cases, the majority, of voters. 
These five districts voted on May 13, the final phase of the 
election for the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament). 
Our Muslim interlocutors' primary concern seemed to be to 
ensure the defeat of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP), reflecting long-lasting memories of the 
Hindutva-inspired demolition of the Babri Mosque. They were 
divided, however, as to which party -- Congress, the 
Samajwadi Party (SP), or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) -- can 
beat the BJP. They were also divided as to what they were 
looking for in a party, beyond this capability. For those 
thinking primarily about local concerns, it came down to 
either the BSP or the SP. For those thinking about India as a 
whole, the pick was the Congress as the party that would 
bring stable government, economic prosperity, and respite 
from communal tensions. End Summary. 
 
Amroha: Caste Politics Trumps All 
------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) In Amroha, a market town in northwest Uttar Pradesh 
renown for its mangoes, we met with a large group that 
included Muslim community leaders, businessmen, and local 
leaders for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The consensus 
among the group was that caste would trump concerns about 
development when it came time for people to vote. The 
participants blamed the parties for perpetuating caste as the 
basis of votes because that was the criteria the parties used 
to pick their respective candidates. They claimed that 
potential candidates are not asked about their previous 
political experience when they apply for their ticket, but 
rather what caste group they come from and what percentage of 
the electorate that group represents in the relevant 
parliamentary district. Not one of our Muslim interlocutors 
wanted Navendra Nagpal, the candidate of the Rashtriya Lok 
Dal, the ally of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP), to win. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Later in the meeting there was a boisterous debate 
between supporters of the two regional parties, the Samajwadi 
Party (SP) and the BSP, as to the merits of each party's 
leader, rather than the qualifications of its candidates. SP 
supporters said that electricity rates had risen dramatically 
since Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati had taken office 
in 2007 and that it was hurting local businesses. They also 
noted rampant corruption in her administration and the lack 
of development during the two years of her rule. In contrast, 
our interlocutors pointed out that SP leader and former Uttar 
Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav was friendlier to 
small businesses because he had refused to collect a central 
government-mandated value-added tax. SP supporters also 
alleged that Mayawati and the BSP really couldn't be 
considered secular because of past alliances with the BJP. 
BSP supporters responded that it was their civic duty to pay 
taxes. They defended Mayawati by noting  her promise to build 
a 10,000 megawatt power plant - of which UP would only need 
6,000 megawatts with the excess being sold to surrounding 
states. 
 
¶4. (SBU) When asked about former BJP leader Kalyan Singh 
leaving the BJP and allying with the SP so that his son 
Rajveer would have a chance to run for Parliament under the 
SP banner, Muslim SP supporters saw it as a tactical move 
designed to entice one of the BJP's prominent leaders in UP 
away and weaken the BJP. They made it clear, however, that 
they did not forgive Kalyan Singh, who was the Chief Minister 
of UP during the destruction of the Babri Masjid (mosque) in 
1992, for his part in its destruction. They justified their 
continued allegiance to the SP by pointing out that it was 
Raveer Singh and not Kalyan who had formally joined the 
party. It makes it a little more palatable for them that 
Kalyan is running as an independent, albeit with SP backing. 
 
 
NEW DELHI 00000988  002 OF 003 
 
 
Rampur: Native Royalty versus Outsider Actress 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Although officially there are 16 candidates running 
for the Rampur seat, the contest seems to be a two-way race 
between the Congress and SP candidates in this district where 
Muslim outnumber Hindus. The Congress Party is represented by 
the wife of the former head of the princely state of Rampur, 
Begum Noor Bano, who previously held the seat for two terms. 
The SP banner is being carried by the incumbent 
actress-turned-politician Jaya Prada, who had defeated Bano 
in 2004. A prominent local SP supporter told us that the 
Begum would win because the poor would vote for her. He had 
seen Prada investing a lot of money in advertising for her 
campaign, but she hasn't accomplished much for her district 
in the last five years. Our interlocutor said that four out 
of the five local state legislators, including one from the 
BJP, were supporting the Begum. According to him, resentment 
is building toward outsiders, noting that Prada is from the 
southern Indian of Andhra Pradesh and the BJP candidate is 
from Allahabad in eastern Uttar Pradesh, whereas the Begum is 
from a local, well-respected family. The Muslim constituency 
is also against the BSP candidate because he is from the same 
family as Kalyan Singh, the former BJP leader. The BJP 
candidate, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, is the vice president of the 
national party, but that does not seem to be helping him with 
the voters. 
 
¶6. (SBU) When we visited the large gated compound of Begum 
Noor Bano later that evening, she was not as upbeat about her 
chances, claiming that the SP was throwing lots of money 
around to buy people's votes. She alleged that SP general 
s ecretary Amar Singh and BJP President Rajnath Singh were 
colluding across party lines to back Prada for the seat 
because they come from the same caste. Bano claimed the 
Congress Party had saved several lives in her district 
through its loan waiver program for farmers. She said that 
her primary concern was to make the lives of her constituents 
better by bringing in a steady supply of power, water, and 
infrastructure, but was noncommittal on how she planned to do 
so. Her son, who has a degree in urban planning and 
architecture from Columbia University, is a member of the BSP 
in UP's legislative assembly, but his mother hoped that some 
day he would return to the Congress Party fold. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The spartan BJP campaign headquarters in Rampur was 
quiet with only a few days to go before voting day on May 13. 
The Indian Election Commission's limits on campaign funding, 
including campaign posters, made for a disappointing lack of 
color around the office. The signage was limited to several 
images of the party's lotus symbol and some Hindi script 
painted in orange and green on the white-washed walls of the 
small compound.  The BJP secretary for the district, B. P. 
Singh, said they were using a grassroots approach to their 
campaign. One party member would have ten or so volunteers 
under him or her working to get out the vote in each of the 
district's 1339 voting stations.  Singh noted that he had 
helped with his party's campaign after phases 1 and 2 of the 
voting in eastern UP and said that percentages of voters were 
down and that many people were apathetic. This helped the 
BSP's cause because the Dalits, formerly known as 
untouchables, were committed to helping their fellow Dalit, 
Chief Minister Mayawati. 
 
Moradabad, Nagina, and Bijnor: National versus Local Interests 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In Moradabad, PolOff and Pol FSN met with a small 
group of educated Muslim urbanites. The first group's primary 
concerns were communal harmony, government stability, 
opportunities for economic prosperity, and recognition for 
India on the world stage.  They assessed that Congress would 
be the most likely to help meet these aspirations. The room 
was divided as to how qualified the Congress candidate, 
Mohammed Azharuddin, is. This is his first time running for 
 
NEW DELHI 00000988  003 OF 003 
 
 
office, but he is well known throughout India and the 
district because of his successful career as a cricket 
player. Our interlocutors hoped that Azharuddin's fame would 
make Moradabad a VIP constituency and bring in much needed 
investment into the area. They had no problem with him being 
an outsider because all of the main parties are running 
candidates from outside Moradabad. 
 
¶9. (SBU) PolOff and PolFSN later met with a large group of 
Moradabad's Muslim community leaders and businessmen.  The 
group was split between Congress, the SP, and the BSP. On 
concerns whether a split vote would open the door to a BJP 
victory, they responded that they would confer with one 
another and unite their votes behind one party to block the 
BJP. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In Chanpur, a part of the Bijnor parliamentary 
district, a group of Muslim community leaders emphasized the 
importance of peaceful communal relations and stable 
government, saying they placed India's national interests 
before their local interests. They saw Congress as the party 
most likely to meet those criteria. One of our interlocutors 
made it clear that they had yet to receive any benefit from 
the Congress Party for their support, but they still saw the 
party as the best choice. They were also concerned that the 
BSP and SP would take votes away from the Congress Party 
because they were more plugged into the local community and 
its concerns. 
 
¶11. (SBU) In a gathering of local community leaders and 
Muslim intelligentsia in Dhampur, part of the Nagina 
district, many of our interlocutors, most of them former SP 
supporters, criticized the SP for allying with Kalyan Singh. 
Many were choosing to vote for the BSP instead because the 
high percentage of Dalits in the constituency made it likely 
that the BSP would win. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment: The majority of our Muslim interlocutors, 
caught in Uttar Pradesh's caste-driven politics, are often 
compelled to base their vote on who they think will win based 
on the candidate's caste rather than who they judge to be the 
best candidate. It was encouraging, however, to see that some 
were looking beyond parochial concerns and thinking about 
what was best for India as a whole, no doubt judging what was 
good for the country was good for them. The unity that our 
Muslim interlocutors displayed against the BJP reflects how 
strong the memories of the destruction of the Babri Masjid 
remain in this community. 
BURLEIGH