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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000969 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: INDIA'S MARATHON ELECTION 
REACHES FINISH LINE 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 927 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: Indian voters cast the final ballots in the 
country's marathon elections on May 13.  In this fifth and 
final phase, polling took place in 86 constituencies across 
seven states and two territories.  Voting was relatively 
peaceful with the exception of small skirmishes in West 
Bengal.  Preliminary turnout figures were varied from 
moderate in Himachal Pradesh to strong in Tamil Nadu and 
Punjab.  Votes will be counted and results announced on May 
16 for all 543 constituencies for which 714 million eligible 
voters have had a chance to cast their ballot to elect a new 
Lok Sabha (lower house) of parliament and a new government. 
End Summary. 
 
Fifth and Final Phase 
--- 
 
¶2.  (U) Voters in 86 constituencies spread across seven 
states and two territories headed to polls in the fifth and 
final round of polling.  A total of 1,432 candidates, 
including 93 women, were fighting for 86 Lok Sabha seats. 
More than 107 million people are eligible to vote in the 
fifth round.  In the five rounds of voting, the eligible 
electorate of 714 million has made its selection for 543 
seats in the lower house of parliament.  Votes will be 
counted and results announced on May 16. 
 
The Contested States 
--- 
 
¶3.  (U) The 86 parliamentary constituencies going to the 
polls in the fifth phase are located in the following states: 
 
-- Tamil Nadu (39/39 seats) 
-- Jammu and Kashmir (2/6 seats) 
-- Uttar Pradesh (14/80 seats) 
-- West Bengal (11/42 seats) 
-- Himachal Pradesh (4/4 seats) 
-- Punjab (9/13 seats) 
-- Uttarakhand (5/5 seats) 
-- Chandigarh (1/1 seat) 
-- Pondicherry (1/1 seat) 
 
Good Early Turnout 
--- 
 
¶4.  (U) There was moderate to heavy polling in 86 Lok Sabha 
constituencies.  Local media reported the following as of 
1500 hrs:  Punjab 50%, Uttarakhand 46%, Tamil Nadu 46%, 
Himachal Pradesh 39%, West Bengal 45%, Uttar Pradesh 41%, 
Pondicherry 52%, Chandigarh 53% and Jammu and Kashmir 34%. 
The Election Commission will report preliminary turnout a few 
hours after polls close at 1700 hrs local time, and many 
expect voter turnout numbers to rise. 
 
Peaceful Polls 
--- 
 
¶5.  (U) The May 13 poll was peaceful, calm and orderly. 
There were reports of scattered violence in Kolkata that 
resulted in one reported death and 17 injuries.  Security was 
heavy in Jammu and Kashmir, and there were no reports of 
violence. 
 
Big Name Contests 
--- 
 
¶6.  (U) Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram is seeking 
re-election from Tamil Nadu.  Varun Gandhi, until recently 
the lesser known grandson of Indira Gandhi, is the BJP 
candidate from Uttar Pradesh.  Some of the other prominent 
personalities contesting during last phase include:  Lok 
Sabha Deputy Speaker Charnjit Singh Atwal from Punjab; 
Trinamool Congress President Mamata Banerjee from West 
 
NEW DELHI 00000969  002 OF 003 
 
 
Bengal; BJP Vice President Mukthar Abbas Naqvi from Uttar 
Pradesh; Maneka Gandhi, Varun's mother, from Uttar Pradesh; 
cricketer-turned-BJP MP Navjot Sidhu from Amritsar; and 
actress-turned-Samajawadi Party MP Jaya Prada from Uttar 
Pradesh. 
 
¶7.  (U) The Election Commission had prohibited the media from 
airing exit polls until voting had been completed in all 543 
constituencies over the five phases on grounds that such 
polls can be manipulated to influence voter behavior in 
subsequent rounds.  As polls closed at 1700 hrs today, the 
media began to furiously air exit polls that compiled the 
results from all five phases.  Embassy will report a survey 
of these polls tomorrow but cautions that the value of exit 
polls and opinion polls in India is extremely limited as they 
tend to be notoriously inaccurate. 
 
Eastern India - 11 Seats 
--- 
 
¶8.  (U) West Bengal: 11 seats were at stake in West Bengal in 
the fifth round of the polls.  Governance and development are 
the primary elections issues in the state.  In West Bengal, 
Trinamool and Congress together pose the most formidable 
threat to the Left Front's 32-year domination of state 
politics led by the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI-M). 
 All eyes are on South Kolkata and the ten other seats spread 
across urban and semi-urban areas to see whether the 
Trinamool-Congress alliance can capitalize on voter 
dissatisfaction with the Left Front over it acquisition of 
land for industry, or whether they will be held accountable 
for the departure of the high profile Tata small car factory 
from the state. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Senior CPI-M MP told Poloff today that CPI-M would 
likely support a Congress-led government.  However, Trinamool 
Chief Mamata Banerjee has explicitly ruled out her support 
for Congress if it entered an alliance with the Left to form 
a government. 
 
Southern India - 40 Seats 
--- 
 
¶10.  (U) Tamil Nadu: Polling brought out 54 million eligible 
voters to fill 39 Lok Sabha constituencies.  The DMK-Congress 
alliance fielded candidates in all constituencies, as did the 
AIADMK in its "rainbow coalition" with smaller parties such 
as the PMK, MDMK, CPI and CPM.  The BJP fielded candidates in 
only 26 seats.  In the 2004 elections, the DMK-led alliance 
swept all 39 of the state's constituencies.  There will 
likely be a reversal in this election; the consensus is that 
the AIADMK alliance will win a substantial majority of the 
state's seats.  Turnout is estimated to be close to 70 
percent statewide, but as low as 45 percent in Chennai.  We 
passed several polling stations in the city around mid-day 
and found no long lines.  Journalists and party workers 
expect turnout to be fairly low.  We also witnessed several 
incidents of disappointed voters who turned up at polling 
stations only to find out that their names were not on voting 
lists. 
 
Northern India - 34 Seats 
--- 
 
¶11. (U) Uttar Pradesh:  Fourteen seats representing nearly 20 
million voters went to the polls today.  The most prominent 
name contesting was BJP candidate Varun Gandhi, son of the 
late Sanjay Gandhi.  Gandhi caused a stir on the campaign 
trail several weeks ago for alleged anti-Muslim remarks. 
Muslims make up roughly 25 percent of the electorate in 
eleven of the fourteen constituencies.  Over the last several 
years, this configuration would have favored the Samajwadi 
Party.  But Mayawati's BSP has made inroads in the Muslim 
votebank.  Additionally, Embassy contacts report increasing 
numbers of Muslim voters returning to their historical 
 
NEW DELHI 00000969  003 OF 003 
 
 
political home, the Congress Party. 
 
¶12. (U) Himachal Pradesh: The contest for Himachal Pradesh's 
four Lok Sabha seats representing 4.5 million voters is a 
straight fight between the Congress Party and the BJP.  While 
the BSP and the CPM have fielded candidates, they are 
extremely marginal players.  Currently the Congress holds 
three seats and the BJP one.  Media report both parties are 
confident of winning one seat, while the other two remain up 
for grabs. 
 
¶13.  (U) Punjab: Nine districts in Punjab went to polls in 
the second and final phase of polling for 13 Lok Sabha seats. 
 The election is largely a two-way contest between the 
incumbent SAD-BJP coalition and the Congress Party.  Many 
believe that a growing anti-incumbency sentiment, together 
with the SAD-BJP's poor governance record, will provide a 
boost for Congress.  Contacts from across the political 
spectrum agreed that former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder 
Singh and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh retained popular 
support among rural and urban voters, and would enhance the 
Congress Party's elections prospects in the state. The 
Congress Party is expected to pick up five to seven seats, 
where it currently holds only two of the state's thirteen Lok 
Sabha seats. 
 
¶14.  (U) Uttarakhand: With five parliamentary seats up for 
grabs, job creation and economic development are the primary 
election issues.  The competition is primarily a binary race 
between the Congress and BJP.  Voters will in large part be 
holding a referendum on the current BJP-led state government 
and what they think of its efforts, or lack thereof, to 
develop the state.  The conventional wisdom of pundits in the 
state is that the BJP and Congress will hold on to two seats. 
 The one seat that is most likely to change hands is 
Haridwar, but whether Mayawati and her candidate will be able 
to convince the Dalit and Muslim communities to vote en masse 
for the BSP remains to be seen. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Jammu and Kashmir:  Of the two districts going to 
the polls, the Ladakh contest is a mere formality because it 
is a Congress stronghold.  The eagerly watched contest is in 
Baramulla in the valley where separatist leader Sajjad Lone 
has defied separatist calls for a boycott and entered the 
fray.  He is competing against candidates of the valley's two 
mainstream parties -- the National Conference and the 
People's Democratic Party.  Poloff contacts say that Sajjad 
Lone is attracting heavy support in his home base of Handwara 
and Kupwara.  A Lone win could have far reaching implications 
within the separatist movement in Kashmir if it encourages 
more separatists to enter the political arena. The voting in 
the valley was free of violence. 
BURLEIGH