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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000945 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PTER IN
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: BHARAT BALLOT 09: CASTE AND 
PERSONALITY DOMINATE IN BELLWETHER UTTAR PRADESH 
 
REF: BHARAT BALLOT SERIES 
 
Corrected for Spelling of Party/Candidate Names 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  A visit to six constituencies in an arc 
along the western border of bellwether Uttar Pradesh revealed 
that caste, personality politics, and tactical voting 
dominate over national issues as the region went to the polls 
May 7.  Results of all parliamentary contests across the 
country will be declared on May 16.  The caste-based 
strategies of the regional parties made communal issues the 
dominant dynamic in candidate selection and campaigning in 
most constituencies.  Contacts across the political spectrum 
believed that the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP) both stood to make modest gains in Uttar Pradesh, 
even though these contacts had difficulty identifying any 
national issues that would help turn the voter towards the 
national parties.  Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 
seemed to be riding her loyal and transferable Dalit support 
to gains within Uttar Pradesh at the expense of the faltering 
Samajwadi Party (SP).  One thing is certain:  the next Indian 
government will be determined not by national issues but 
rather by an impossibly complex landscape of local and caste 
dynamics best understood by pulling back the curtain to peer 
into individual races.  END SUMMARY. 
 
General Trends:  Caste Matters 
- - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) A visit to six constituencies in an arc along the 
western border of bellwether Uttar Pradesh -- from Delhi 
through Mathura, tourist hot-spots of Agra and Fatehpur 
Sikri, across the Scindia family stronghold of Gwalior in 
neighboring Madhya Pradesh to Jhansi in the clubbed foot of 
Uttar Pradesh's Bundelkhand region -- revealed that caste, 
personality politics, and tactical voting dominated over 
national issues as the region went to the polls May 7.  Votes 
will be counted and results declared on May 16. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In general, the more competitive the candidates from 
the powerful regional parties -- Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj 
Party (BSP) and the Samajwati Party (SP) -- the less 
important were national issues in the campaigns.  The 
caste-based strategies of the regional parties made communal 
issues the dominant dynamic in candidate selection and 
campaign performance in most constituencies.  One Muslim 
contact observed that India remains a young democracy; 
religion has faded as a defining issue in politics, but caste 
is still deeply entrenched and sentimental. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite the communal character of the campaigns, 
contacts across the political spectrum believed that the 
national parties -- the Congress Party and the Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP), the latter contesting in Uttar Pradesh in 
partnership with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) -- both stood to 
gain seats in Uttar Pradesh, partly because voters tended to 
view parliamentary elections as more national in character. 
Nevertheless, contacts had difficulty identifying national 
issues of concern in the races.  Even in the tourist 
hot-spots of Agra and Fatehpur Sikri, where declining numbers 
of visitors might be blamed in part on the 26/11 terrorist 
attacks in Mumbai, contacts attributed the lull instead to 
the global economic slow-down.  When pressed to describe 
national issues that resonated locally, contacts vaguely 
mentioned development, which seemed to be shorthand for 
benefits extracted from the political system by their caste 
and community leadership. 
 
¶5. (SBU) An Electoral Commission decree prohibiting posters 
and billboards resulted in few overt signs of the vigorous 
election campaigns.  Contacts agreed that the parties were 
effectively reaching voters through public meetings and 
rallies, speeches, door-to-door canvassing, and electronic 
outreach (mainly mobile phone text messaging).  Some contacts 
expressed concern that the lack of advertisements together 
with high summer temperatures would result in a lower voter 
turnout overall, tending to favor the BSP's committed Dalit 
voters and the BJP's fervent upper caste Hindutva base. 
These factors may also mitigate against a groundswell of 
 
NEW DELHI 00000945  002 OF 004 
 
 
youth voting.  However, a respectable preliminary turnout of 
50 percent on May 7, compared to 48 percent in 2004, belied 
some of these fears. Professors at the Jhansi College of 
Science and Engineering reported that although 43 percent of 
the population in that constituency was between the ages of 
18 and 35, young voters had not mobilized as a voting block, 
tending instead to vote with their families. 
 
Mayawati's Dalits:  Loyal ... and Transferable 
- - - 
 
¶6. (SBU) Overall, contacts generally agreed that the national 
parties would increase their seats in Uttar Pradesh, while 
Mayawati's BSP would gain at the expense of the faltering 
Samajwadi Party (SP).  Of Uttar Pradesh's 80 Parliamentary 
seats, BSP (19) and SP (35) combined won 54 seats in 2004. 
This time, the two parties together are expected to tally at 
least 5-10 fewer seats.  Senior SP officials and those close 
to them remain formidable, but their "socialist" party is 
increasingly viewed as the party of opportunism and 
corruption. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Mayawati's strategy is based on her Dalit vote base, 
which is not only loyal but also -- crucially -- 
transferable.  Lower caste BSP supporters not only reliably 
turn out to vote for fellow Dalits, but also follow 
Mayawati's instructions and vote for whoever she tells them 
to vote for, including Brahmin candidates.  This allows her 
to field upper caste candidates in some constituencies to 
attract support away from traditional Congress or BJP voters. 
 The BJP-RLD alliance employs a similar caste-based strategy 
unifying other caste voters (such as the prosperous Jats 
farmers) with the BJP's core upper caste constituents, a 
strategy that could pick up as many as 20 seats for the 
alliance in Uttar Pradesh, up smartly from the 10 seats it 
won in 2004. 
 
Congress and Muslims:  Don't Call It a Comeback... 
- - - 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Most remarkably, the Congress Party appeared to 
have a chance to make a modest come-back in the state home to 
the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and its bastion of power.  Congress 
held only nine seats in Uttar Pradesh in the previous 
Parliament, and appeared at one time to be losing in most of 
them.  However, strong candidates and the disillusionment of 
the Muslim vote with SP and its mistrust of BSP appeared to 
give Congress a reasonable chance of prevailing in as many as 
15 to 20 constituencies. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Muslim contacts uniformly told us that their 
community prefers Congress, but will support whoever seems 
most likely to beat the BJP.  For instance, Agra's 
substantial Muslim community previously had no problem voting 
for former BJP Prime Minister Atul Bihari Vajpayee, who was 
seen as teh moderate face of the BJP, but they do not trust 
the party's current candidate for Prime Minister L.K. Advani, 
who rose to prominence on strict Hindutva credentials. 
Likewise, prominent Muslims in Fatehpur Sikri told us that 
their community had turned to the surging SP in recent years 
to keep the BJP out of power, but is  now returning to the 
Congress, as well as considering the BSP where it is appears 
more likely to beat the BJP. 
 
All Politics Is Local:  Anecdotal Evidence From Six 
Constituencies 
- - - 
 
¶10. (SBU) The next Indian government will be determined by 
issues of caste, personality, and tactics.  These dynamics 
are perhaps best illustrated by pulling back the curtain to 
peer into individual races, such as those described in 
paragraphs 11-16. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Mathura hosted a triangular contest between Jayant 
Chaudhary (BJP-RLD), Shyam Sunder Sharma (BSP), and sitting 
member of parliament Manvendra Singh (Congress).  The BJP-RLD 
nominee's chances look brightest.  Chaudhary is the grandson 
of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, drawing 
 
NEW DELHI 00000945  003 OF 004 
 
 
cross-over support from Congress Party voters, including the 
sitting state assembly legislator from the Congress Party. 
He commands a large block of votes from his fellow Jat caste 
farmers, reinforced by the absence of an SP candidate 
competing for a similar vote block.  The BJP alliance also 
contributes committed Hindutva voters to the ticket in a 
pious constituency famous as the birthplace of the Hindu 
deity Lord Krishna.  The Congress candidate is also a Jat, so 
the two could split the vote block creating an opportunity 
for the BSP candidate.  However, party representatives 
(including from the Congress) shared that voters like the 
Congress Party, but not the incumbent, who was elected on a 
development platform, but spent much of his time in Delhi and 
accomplished little in the constituency. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Agra witnessed a tight race between sitting member 
of parliament Ramji Lal Suman (SP) and Ram Shankar (BJP-RLD), 
with Kunwar Singh Wakil (BSP) and Prabhu Dayal Katheria 
(Congress) described by local contacts as weaker candidates. 
The delimitation of parliamentary constituencies in 2008 made 
Agra a reserved constituency, in which by law only members of 
Scheduled Castes can stand for election.  As a result, lower 
caste voters will likely divide almost equally among the 
candidates, leaving the support of other castes and Muslims 
decisive.  Many Muslims in the constituency had supported BJP 
in the past under former Prime Minister Vajpay, but they do 
not share the same comfort level with Advani, leaving them 
divided among BSP, SP, and Congress.  This is the first time 
Agra is a reserved constituency, so the upper castes may lack 
enthusiasm to select among lower caste candidates, decreasing 
turnout. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Fatehpur Sikri was previously a reserved 
constituency, but has been redesignated a general 
constituency, drawing strong high caste candidates from 
neighboring Agra.  Fatehpur Sikri is one of the most 
closely-contested seats.  Sitting member of parliament from 
neighboring Agra Raj Babbar (Congress) is counting on his 
popularity as a former film star and the youth vote.  Wife of 
the Uttar Pradesh Energy Minister in Mayawati's cabinet Seema 
Upadhyaya (BSP) is counting on BSP's loyal lower caste vote 
together with support from her fellow Brahmins.  Ari Daman 
Singh (BJP-RLD) hails from a prominent feudal family and is 
viewed as having done a lot for the area as a minister in the 
previous BJP governments in the state.  Raghuraj Sing Shakya 
(SP) is perhaps the weakest in strong field, despite three 
terms as member of parliament from a constituency that 
disappeared due to redrawing of district boundaries. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Hathras is a reserved constituency with a 
triangular contest between Sarika Singh (BJP-RLD), Rajendra 
Kumar (BSP), and Anar Singh (SP), with Pradeep Chandel 
(Congress) rounding out the ballot.  The BJP-RLD candidate 
draws from her large RLD Jatav caste vote block, supplemented 
with upper caste voters gained through the alliance with BJP. 
 Faced with a strong BJP-affiliated candidate, local Muslims 
are divided on how best to avert a BJP victory, splitting 
their support between BSP and SP and leaving the Congress 
candidate out of contention.  Muslim contacts told us that 
local mosques would try to unify the Muslim vote the Friday 
before the May 7 vote. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Ferozabad witnessed a direct contest between the SP 
and BSP candidates.  Akhilesh Yadav (SP) is the son of SP 
President Mulayam Singh Yadav, who commands respect and votes 
across the lower castes.  The strength of S.P. Singh Baghel 
(BSP) lies in his Rajput caste vote block combined with the 
BSP's vote block in a constituency where the majority of 
voters are from lower castes.  Raghubar Dayal Verma, a former 
SP leader contesting on behalf of BJP-RLD, and Rajendra Pal 
(Congress) round out the ballot. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Jhansi saw a four-cornered contest between strong 
candidates.  Sitting member of parliament Chandra Pal Singh 
(SP) is a close associate of SP President Mulayam Singh 
Yadav.  Ramesh Kumar Shukla (BSP) is a Brahmin; Mayawati 
hopes she can deliver the loyal Dalit vote and Shukla can 
lure the upper caste vote away from the BJP-RLD.   Pradeep 
Jain (Congress) is a young and popular sitting state assembly 
 
NEW DELHI 00000945  004 OF 004 
 
 
legislator who in 2007 defeated Shukla, the BJP-RLD 
candidate, for that position partly by commanding the votes 
of Jhansi's large Jain community.  In a constituency which 
was in the middle of a 113 degree plus heat wave, low turnout 
could favor BSP and BJP, both of which have more committed 
voters bases.  Apart from caste and personality politics, 
voters are concerned about development and the prospect of 
statehood for Uttar Pradesh's neglected Bundelkhand region. 
A group of interlocutors including science and engineering 
professors said poverty and unemployment are concerns, but 
they tended to be viewed through the lens of caste. 
BURLEIGH