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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000927 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: INDIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 
ENTER HOME STRETCH 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 817 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: The rolling Indian parliamentary election 
moved north as Indian voters cast their ballots in the fourth 
round of elections on May 7.  In play were several key 
battleground states for the Congress Party-led United 
Progressive Alliance's attempt to stay in power.  In this 
fourth of five phases, polling took place in 85 
constituencies across eight states.  Voting in the fourth 
phase was relatively uneventful with the exception of small 
skirmishes in Bihar and West Bengal.  Preliminary turnout 
figures were mixed, varying between weak in Bihar to strong 
in West Bengal, Punjab and Haryana.  Votes will be counted 
and results announced on May 16 when all five phases of 
polling have been completed and 714 million voters have had a 
chance to cast their ballot to elect a new Lok Sabha (lower 
house) of parliament and a new government.  End Summary. 
 
Fourth of Five Phases 
--- 
 
¶2.  (U) Voters in 85 constituencies spread across eight 
states headed to polls in the fourth round of the five-phased 
election.  A total of 1,315 candidates, including 119 women, 
were fighting for 85 Lok Sabha seats.  More than 94.6 million 
people are eligible to vote in the fourth round.  In the four 
rounds of voting, an electorate of 593 million (out of a 
total of 714 million) has made its selection for 457 (out of 
543) seats in the lower house of parliament.  The next and 
last round of polls takes place on May 13.  Votes will be 
counted and results announced on May 16. 
 
The Contested States 
--- 
 
¶3.  (U) The 85 parliamentary constituencies going to the 
polls in the fourth phase are located in the following states: 
 
-- Bihar (3/40 seats; polling for all 40 seats now completed) 
-- Jammu & Kashmir (1/6 seats; polling for 4/6 seats 
completed in phases 1-4) 
-- Uttar Pradesh (18 /80 seats; polling for 66/80 seats 
completed in phases 1-4) 
-- West Bengal (17/42 seats; polling for 31/42 seats 
completed in phases 1-4) 
-- Haryana (10/10 seats) 
-- Punjab (4/13 seas; polling will be completed in phase 5) 
-- Delhi (7/7 seats) 
-- Rajasthan (25/25 seats) 
 
Voter Turnout Better Than in Previous Rounds 
--- 
 
¶4.  (U) Voting began briskly in election states, but slowed 
as the mid-day heat kept voters home.  The Election 
Commission reported a preliminary turnout number of 57 
percent.  The turnout varied between high in West Bengal 
(75%), Punjab (65%) and Haryana (63%), to low in Bihar (37%). 
 Overall, the turnout was better than in the first three 
rounds. 
 
Peaceful Polls 
--- 
 
¶5.  (U) The May 7 poll was relatively peaceful and orderly. 
There were reports of stray incidents in the southwestern 
area of West Bengal resulting in two injuries.  In Jammu & 
Kashmir, the GOI deployed paramilitary troops throughout 
Srinagar and surrounding areas to thwart anti-election 
protests prompted by a separatist boycott. 
 
Big Name Contests 
--- 
 
¶6.  (U) Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi is seeking 
 
NEW DELHI 00000927  002 OF 003 
 
 
re-election from the traditional Nehru-Gandhi constituency of 
Amethi, Uttar Pradesh.  BJP President Rajnath Singh is 
contesting from Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, where he faces 
stiff competition from Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party 
candidates. Some of the other prominent personalities 
contesting during phase four include:  Foreign Minister 
Pranab Mukherjee from West Bengal; Railway Minister Lalu 
Prasad from Bihar; Mines Minister Sis Ram Ola from Rajasthan; 
Samajwadi President Mulayam Singh Yadav from Uttar Pradesh; 
National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah from Srinagar, 
J&K; Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) Chief Ajit Singh from Uttar 
Pradesh; and young parliamentarians Sachin Pilot (Congress, 
Rajasthan), Manvendra Singh (BJP, Rajasthan); Sandeep Dixit 
(Congress, Delhi); and Naveen Jindal (Congress, Haryana). 
 
¶7.  (U) The Election Commission has prohibited exit polls on 
grounds that they can be manipulated and could influence 
voter behavior in subsequent rounds.  It is not possible, 
therefore, to get a quick read on any trends or patterns in 
how voters cast their ballots today.  It will take a few days 
before the buzz from internal party surveys and political 
pundits' analysis begins to make the rounds on how the 
parties fared in this round in the various states. 
 
Eastern India - 20 Seats 
--- 
 
¶8.  (U) In eastern India, 20 seats were at stake in Bihar and 
West Bengal in the fourth round of the polls.  Bihar 
completed its final phase of voting, while West Bengal has 
one more phase to go.  Governance and development are the 
primary elections issues in both states.  Whereas caste plays 
a significant role in dictating electoral behavior in Bihar, 
ethnicity is a significant factor in northern West Bengal 
(where ethnic Gorkhas have campaigned for greater recognition 
and statehood) and in the Maoist-influenced southwestern 
areas. 
 
¶9.  (U) The discord within the United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) in Bihar has thrown the traditional electoral alliances 
out the window.  As a result, regional parties are expected 
to improve on their 2004 performance in Bihar (Janata 
Dal-United).  In West Bengal, Trinamool and Congress together 
pose the most formidable threat to the Left Front's 32-year 
domination of state politics led by the Communist Party of 
India-Marxist (CPI-M).  All eyes are on Singur (Hooghly) and 
Nandigram (Tamluk) constituencies to see whether the 
Trinamool-Congress alliance can capitalize on voter 
dissatisfaction with the Left Front over it acquisition of 
land for industry, or whether they will be held accountable 
for the departure of the high profile Tata small car factory 
from the state. 
 
Northern India - 65 Seats 
--- 
 
¶10. (U) Uttar Pradesh: Eighteen seats representing over 25 
million voters went to the polls in northwestern Uttar 
Pradesh (UP).  India's largest state, UP sends 80 members to 
the Lok Sabha and will see voting in all five phases.  The 
main fight in UP remains between Yadav's SP and the Bahujan 
Samaj Party of Chief Minister Mayawati, though embassy 
contacts recently reported a perceived uptick in support for 
the BJP and the Congress Party among the UP electorate. 
Media reported peaceful polling with a relatively low 31 
percent turnout through midday. 
 
¶11.  (U) Delhi: While Delhi boasts the second highest number 
of candidates per seat - 23 on average for each of its seven 
seats - the contests are generally straight Congress 
Party-BJP fights.  Embassy contacts report the Congress Party 
looks strong in all constituencies and could win six, if not 
seven of the seats.  This comes just weeks after party 
leaders dropped candidates Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar 
due to sustained protests by the Sikh community over the two 
 
NEW DELHI 00000927  003 OF 003 
 
 
men's alleged role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.  Also 
contesting from Delhi is Minister of Science and Technology 
Kapil Sibal.  The Congress Party is hoping to ride the 
coattails of Chief Minister Shiela Dikshit's November 2008 
assembly victory in which a high turnout of 59 percent from 
Delhi's 11 million voters returned the veteran politician for 
a third straight term. 
 
¶12.  (U) Haryana: An estimated twelve million voters cast 
their votes for ten parliamentary seats.  For the most part, 
the election is a two-way competition between the Congress 
and the Indian Lok Dal Party.  Many expect Congress to 
perform well in the state backed by the party's strong 
economic and development record, but it is not likely to 
match its 2004 performance when it picked up nine of the 
state's ten seats.  Identity politics is also expected to 
play a prominent role in these elections, as parties vie to 
project appropriate candidates to gain the support of 
strategic ethnic/caste vote banks. 
 
¶13.  (U) Punjab: Four districts went to polls in the first of 
two phases of polling for thirteen Lok Sabha seats.  The 
remaining nine seats will see polling on May 13.  An 
estimated 5.3 million voters turned out to cast their 
ballots.  The Bathinda constituency in Punjab's Malwa region 
has emerged as a battleground between the state's two 
political elite families.  Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the wife of 
Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal, is the Shiromani Akali 
Dal (SAD) candidate.  Harsimrat faces off with the Congress 
candidate and former Chief Minister Captain Amrinder Singh's 
son, Raninder Singh.  The election is largely a two-way 
contest between the incumbent SAD-BJP coalition and the 
Congress Party.  Many believe that a growing anti-incumbency 
sentiment, together with the SAD-BJP's poor governance 
record, will provide a boost for Congress.  The Congress 
Party is expected to pick up five to seven seats, where it 
currently holds only two of the state's thirteen Lok Sabha 
seats. 
 
¶14.  (U) Rajasthan: Voters in Rajasthan will elect 25 members 
of parliament in a mostly head-to-head election between the 
Congress Party and the BJP.  The Congress Party in the state 
is riding the momentum from the state assembly elections in 
December 2008 when it ousted the BJP from power in the state, 
but the BJP is fighting back hard.  Both parties have 
recruited their star campaigners -- Sonia Gandhi, Rahul 
Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, L.K. Advani, Narendra Modi -- to 
visit the state in the closing days of the campaign.  As 
things stood last week, the race was neck and neck with each 
party favored in nine seats, two expected to go to 
independents and five too close to call.  As the Congress is 
working from a low base in 2004 -- it won only four of the 25 
seats -- it stands to pick up some seats in Rajasthan. Seats 
swings in Rajasthan are doubly important because head-to-head 
BJP-Congress contests mean that a win for a party is 
accompanied by a corresponding loss for its main competitor. 
 
¶15.  (U) Jammu and Kashmir: Despite a boycott call by the All 
Party Hurriyat Conference separatists, turn out at 24% was 
better than the 18.5% registered in 2004.  The polling was 
peaceful amid a tight security presence.  Farooq Abdullah, 
former Chief Minister and father of current Chief Minister 
Omar Abdullah is contesting the seat. 
BURLEIGH