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Viewing cable 09NEWDELHI1099, GOVERNMENT SIGNALS PERFORMANCE IS PARAMOUNT IN KEY ECONOMIC
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09NEWDELHI1099 | 2009-05-29 14:32 | 2011-08-26 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy New Delhi |
VZCZCXRO5957
OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #1099/01 1491432
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291432Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6776
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8102
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 8359
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 NEW DELHI 001099
STATE FOR SCA/INS JASHWORTH AND SCA/RA MURENA
USDOC FOR 4530/ITA/MAC/OSA/LDROKER/ASTERN
DEPT PASS TO USTR FOR SOUTH ASIA - CLILIENFELD/AADLER
DEPT PASS TO TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF SOUTH ASIA - MNUGENT
TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD EAGR PREL PGOV PTER IN
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT SIGNALS PERFORMANCE IS PARAMOUNT IN KEY ECONOMIC
AND DEVELOPMENT MINISTRIES
REF: NEW DELHI 1062
¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) announced the remainder of its 79-member council of ministers
on May 28, who join the earlier round of ministers announced on May
22 (see reftel). The week-long process of selection seems to have
placed more weight on capable and committed administrators and
supporters of Prime Minister Singh's policies, rather than the more
usual coterie of party and Gandhi loyalists. Many have construed a
comment by Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi to signal that
Cabinet ministers must succeed in the government's infrastructure
and social sector goals, or expect to be replaced. Indeed, the
exclusion of several senior and loyal party members who were
perceived as nonperformers can be taken as the first proof of that
resolve. Press is interpreting the assignments as designed to
maximize the Prime Minister's imprint on economic policy goals and
outcomes. If successful, that bodes well for US economic and
commercial interests. However, it may be worthwhile to heed recent
contacts who warn that reform advocacy will only be welcomed where
it is tied to concrete, direct benefits for struggling Indians.
Efficiency and openness per se will not be winning arguments, but
tangible job creation and improved service delivery in
infrastructure and the social safety net will carry the day. End
summary.
Second Time Around, Performance Matters Most
------------------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) In the UPA's last term, allies' demands within a fragile
coalition and party loyalty were larger determinants in portfolio
assignments, leading to significant underperformance in ministries
key to improving livelihoods, including roads, power, health, and
education. The ministerial appointments announced late on May 28
suggest, encouragingly, that effectiveness is now the more important
factor, with PM Singh's input seen more clearly in the allocation of
portfolios. Singh has reportedly told Congress Members of
Parliament that "business as usual" won't do. Notably, several
Gandhi loyalists are out this time around - Arjun Singh, who was
Minister for Human Resource Development (HRD), HR Bhardwaj, and
octogenarian Sis Ram Ola, amid perceptions that they held back their
ministries. Three senior Congress leaders, seen as take-charge
people who have the PM and Sonia Gandhi's support, have been
assigned key social and infrastructure ministries. They are former
Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad at Health, Kapil
Sibal at HRD, and Kamal Nath at the Roads and Surface Transport
Ministry. These and the other assignments are credible first steps
towards the UPA's delivering on improving living standards, physical
and human infrastructure development, and job creation. Most of the
key economic ministries, along with implications for the US, are
noted below.
Ministry of Finance - Pranab Mukherjee
--------------------------------------
¶3. (SBU) Pranab Mukherjee was chosen as Finance Minister on May 22,
in the government's first tranche of senior ministers (see reftel).
He has been acting Finance Minister since January, when Prime
Minister Singh underwent bypass surgery. Key priorities for the
Finance Minister will be passage of the budget (septel), returning
India to a higher growth trajectory, and reining in the fiscal
deficit. The Finance Ministry will have to decide whether it can
afford another fiscal stimulus as well as examine how effective the
stimulus packages introduced so far have been. The fiscal
constraint may be partially mitigated by re-starting partial
divestment of public sector companies. (Note: Government figures
released on May 29 put GDP growth for the April 2008-March 2009
fiscal year at 6.7%, well within government estimates and above most
economists' forecasts. End note.) Mukherjee has also told press
that he will focus on inclusive growth and sees reforms as the way
to stimulate the economy.
¶4. (SBU) Contacts have told Econoffs that since Chidambaram moved
over to the Home Ministry in December, Planning Commission Deputy
Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has provided the substantive policy
input for the government's response to the global finance crisis and
the economic downturn. There is no word yet that this will
NEW DELHI 00001099 002 OF 007
continue, but Post judges it likely, given Mukherjee's limited
economic policy experience with India's integration with the global
economy. Contacts describe Mukherjee as an astute and capable
administrator, who is most interested in improving government
performance. As such, he is viewed as agnostic on reforms, rather
than an ardent reformer. US interlocutors may find him more open to
dialogue, but not easily persuaded on the merits of liberalization
without specifically tying it to concrete results in "inclusive
growth" objectives such as more roads, electricity, or schools.
Overall, Mukherjee brings with him vast experience in government,
uncanny political instincts and uncommon intellectual ability.
¶5. Bio: 78-year old Mukherjee, from West Bengal, is the most senior
UPA Cabinet Minister. Mukherjee is frequently tagged in the press
as the country's de-facto Prime Minister as he chairs Cabinet
meetings in the Prime Minister's absence. Mukherjee was at the
forefront of the U.S.- India Civil Nuclear Deal as the Foreign
Minister from 2006-09. He is one of the Congress Party's most
highly-regarded stalwarts and strategists, and a close advisor to
Sonia Gandhi. He has favored stronger ties with the U.S., including
more economic and trade cooperation.
Ministry of Commerce and Industry - Anand Sharma
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶6. (SBU) In a move that surprised many commentators and contacts,
former Minister of State for External Affairs, Anand Sharma, was
elevated to Minister of Commerce and Industry (MOCI) on May 28.
Some industry officials were not surprised that former MOCI Minister
Kamal Nath was replaced, given political signals in recent days, but
deemed the move to bring in Sharma in his stead as 'unexpected'.
Sharma is seen by some as close to the Prime Minister, given that he
played an occasional role as an envoy and troubleshooter in helping
to advance the PM's agenda on civil-nuclear and counter
proliferation issues. Indeed, some media speculated that Nath's
tough postures in multilateral forums, particularly the WTO Doha
Round, may have undermined his position with PM Singh, with the
latter feeling better placed to remove Nath after a strong election
outcome. Embassy officials who have met Sharma in different
settings describe him as a consummate diplomat, a quick study,
polished, and not drawn to the limelight, unlike his showman
predecessor.
¶7. (SBU) Foreign mission contacts in Delhi told Econoff May 29 that
they discussed the possible attendance of MOCI Minister Sharma at
the Cairns Group Ministerial in Bali, June 7-9, with senior MOCI
bureaucrats. The Cairns meeting will be one of the first
multilateral meetings where WTO members plan to reengage on the Doha
Round agenda in the wake of the Indian and U.S. elections. The
senior MOCI bureaucrats confirmed that they will recommend that
Sharma attend the meeting. Sharma does not have sufficient clout to
change India's substantive positions in the WTO Doha Round; that
will require consensus within the government. However, Post expects
Sharma to avoid the public posturing on behalf of the developing
world that Nath did, in favor of a more constructive,
consensus-seeking approach that burnishes India's image as a global
economic player.
¶8. Bio: The 56-year old veteran Congress official Anand Sharma is
a lawyer by profession. He was appointed Minister of State for
External Affairs in February 2006. As a former Youth Congress
leader, Sharma was the face of the Congress Party when he was its
spokesman for several years leading up to his MEA appointment. In
addition to his experience in external affairs, Sharma is conversant
with parliamentary and legislative procedures and international law.
He has also organized several major international conferences,
including the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Youth Conference in 1985.
Although his work with NAM might give pause, Sharma is seen as a
pragmatist.
Ministry of Agriculture - Sharad Pawar
--------------------------------------
¶9. (SBU) Pawar was reappointed Minister of Agriculture and will
immediately confront certain key decisions that have to be made on
government grain stocks and minimum support prices (MSP). High MSPs
NEW DELHI 00001099 003 OF 007
in the past few seasons, especially for wheat and rice, along with
good monsoon rains, have underpinned large crops. Much of this
harvest has been procured by the government, with 33 million tons of
wheat and 16 million tons of rice projected in stocks by July 1.
Faced with a glut of wheat, in particular, Pawar will have to decide
whether to feed the stocks into the broken public distribution
system or to export. A decision to export wheat would require a
costly subsidy since the domestic MSP-supported price is higher than
the internationally-traded wheat price. In addition to adding to
India's near-term fiscal deficit, an export subsidy would likely
violate WTO rules.
¶10. (SBU) Longer-term, Indian agriculture faces a number of
intertwined economic and political challenges revolving around the
need to improve agriculture productivity and growth. If the GOI is
to make progress on raising agricultural productivity, Pawar will
have to focus during his tenure on agricultural research and
education, rationalizing the costly fertilizer subsidy and the MSP,
undertaking marketing reforms, addressing futures trading in
commodities, and finding a vehicle to provide cheap credit to
farmers without creating moral hazard. Pawar has in recent days
stated that he is looking at a soft-credit program to enhance farmer
borrowing capacity.
¶11. Bio: Pawar, 69 years old, began his career in politics early,
becoming president of the State Youth Congress at 24. In 1978, he
became the Chief Minister of Maharashtra at the age of 38. Mr.
Pawar completed two more terms as Chief Minister before being
appointed India's Defense Minister in June 1991. An additional
stint as Maharashtra CM and as an opposition leader in Parliament
followed. Pawar was appointed Union Minister of Agriculture in
¶2004.
Ministry of Human Resource Development (HRD)
- Kapil Sibal
----------------
¶12. (SBU) Educators across India are today breathing a sigh of
relief at the appointment of Kapil Sibal, 60, as Minister of Human
Resource Development. A member of Parliament from Delhi, Sibal
served in the previous government as Minister of Science and
Technology where he served effectively and was a regular Mission
interlocutor. Said to be Rahul Gandhi's personal choice for this
Ministry, Sibal's appointment represents a recognition by the
government that it is time to end the practice during both Congress
and BJP-led governments of using the position as a holding spot for
the PM's internal rivals, on the assumption they could never succeed
in office.
¶13. (SBU) The lack of long-expected forward movement on education
reform during PM Singh's first term was a major sore point for many
of the Congress Party's urban supporters, even as the government
raised education outlays in recent years. Mission believes that
Minister Sibal, who has traveled many times to the U.S., will be an
active interlocutor in our bilateral educational dialogue. In the
past, Sibal has told senior USG visitors that he supports the
opening of India's education market to international participation,
consistent with the intent of legislation that has been stalled in
Parliament by his predecessor for three years. Although many
questions remain about the conditions under which U.S. educational
service providers may enter the Indian market, forward movement with
these reforms represents an important litmus test for urban Indians
of the UPA's desire to modernize and expand India's creaky education
system. India's teachers and administrators are hopeful that with
Sibal's appointment, things will finally get moving.
Ministry of Civil Aviation (MOCA) - Praful Patel
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶14. (SBU) As a Minister of State with an independent charge, Praful
Patel is back in the Union Cabinet with the same portfolio. He
resumes charge of the aviation sector at a time when it is
undergoing a deep crisis globally, with estimates that the Indian
aviation industry alone accounts for almost one-third of the global
losses. Following his appointment, Patel told reporters that his
top priority will be focusing on state-run carrier Air India which
has been underperforming and continues to face stiff competition
from private carriers. Since the Air India and Indian Airlines
NEW DELHI 00001099 004 OF 007
merger in 2007, Patel has faced criticism for the huge losses
incurred by the airlines. At present, Air India is estimated to be
grappling with losses of nearly $800 million. The ministry is
likely to consider a new proposal for Air India which will include a
larger restructuring plan, equity infusion and a soft loan.
¶15. (SBU) Patel, an industrialist turned politician, has been
credited for bringing a business-like approach to the aviation
sector, including reforms to liberalize the sector, to modernize the
aviation infrastructure, and to secure new aircraft for Air India
and Indian Airlines. His reappointment is viewed as affirmation of
his solid performance under the previous UPA government. Patel will
now face the tremendous challenge of turning around the depressed
aviation sector and moving ahead with modernization plans for the
nation's airports. One of the ministry's top priorities is said to
be the implementation of a new civil aviation policy, formulated
nearly three years ago, which among other matters allows foreign
airlines to acquire up to 49% stake in domestic carriers. Patel has
been a strong supporter of closer U.S.-India ties; he signed the
historic bilateral Open Skies Agreement in 2005 and the Aviation
Cooperation Program in 2007, a public private partnership to assist
in developing India's aviation infrastructure.
¶16. (SBU) Bio: Praful Patel, 52, is a young and dynamic leader of
the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). He has been a member of the
Rajya Sabha from Maharashtra since April 2000 and is a close
confidant of NCP chief Sharad Pawar. Patel serves as party
treasurer and spokesman. Patel is a member of the U.S-India
Parliamentary Forum, a group of Indian parliamentarians interested
in stronger US-India ties. Patel is forward leaning on reforms and
has been supportive of liberalization of India's civil aviation
sector. He is credited with allowing increased competition into the
sector with the entry of low cost carriers. Patel helped to expand
the fleets of Air India and Indian Airlines with large aircraft
orders.
Ministry of Road Transport and Highways
- Kamal Nath
----------------------------------------
¶17. (SBU) Kamal Nath, previously Minister for Commerce and
Industry, was named Minister of Road Transport and Highways with
Cabinet rank on May 28. His appointment is being cast by the GOI as
putting a Congress Party heavyweight with long standing
administrative experience in charge of key infrastructure policies.
Nath told reporters that the "old regulatory framework" overseeing
the transportation sector will be modernized to make it "practical".
He said his first priority will be to examine the major impediments
in implementing plans for infrastructure development in the country
and then introduce new models for reworking the regulatory policy
framework for roads.
¶18. (SBU) Major challenges facing Nath will include raising funds
for the sector; dealing with the liquidity crunch under the current
global recession which has delayed the financial closure of key
projects under the National Highway Development Plan (NHDP);
encouraging private investment and confidence in state-level public
private partnership projects; strengthening institutional capacity;
and helping ease land acquisition clearances. While some contacts
were surprised by the appointment of Nath to the Road Ministry, they
noted that his tough postures at multilateral forums as Commerce
Minister may have led to the change in portfolios. Nath is viewed
as an able administrator and is expected to help turn around the
road and transport ministry to deliver on major infrastructure
projects to stimulate the economy.
¶19. (SBU) Bio: While former head of MOCI, Nath was responsible for
major trade policy initiatives, bilateral and multilateral trade
negotiations, and domestic industrial policy. During his tenure, a
comprehensive Foreign Trade Policy (2004-09) was announced outlining
a coherent roadmap with a twin focus on exports as well as
employment. India's merchandise export growth rate increased during
the first four years of his tenure, before turning negative in the
past several months with the global slowdown. As MOCI, Nath pursued
major bilateral trade initiatives with ASEAN, Japan, the EU, and
within South Asia. On the WTO Doha Round, Nath has been a vocal
proponent of differential treatment for developing countries and a
leader - along with Brazil - of the G20 in the trade talks. Many
observers place the blame for the July 2008 collapse of a crucial
NEW DELHI 00001099 005 OF 007
WTO Ministerial meeting on Nath's unwillingness to reach a
compromise with the U.S. on the level of protection to be afforded
developing country farmers.
Ministry of Power - Sushil Kumar Shinde
-----------------------------------------
¶20. (SBU) Sushil Kumar Shinde, 67, retains his position as Minister
of Power, which he started on January 29, 2006. The Ministry of
Power oversees one-third of India's installed power generation
capacity and all inter-state power transmission through its
centrally-owned companies; and it affects inter-state policy related
to the state-owned and privately-owned power stations, that are 51%
and 15% of total capacity respectively. The separate Department of
Atomic Energy handles nuclear power (3%). With coal-fired thermal
power accounting for 65% of its power production, Shinde's ministry
and the power sector make up a large percentage of India's carbon
dioxide emissions, and thus any GOI climate change concerns must
take into account his responsibility for supplying electricity for
India's economic development. Shinde is tasked with achieving
India's ambitious targets of expanding power generation capacity by
over 50% by 2012 and he sees expansion of coal-fired capacity
(two-thirds of the addition) as the mainstay for growth through
¶2032.
¶21. (U) Bio: Sushil Kumar Shinde is a Dalit from a poor cobbler's
family in Maharashtra, a sub-inspector who studied law. He won an
assembly seat and rose through state Congress Party ranks to be
Finance Minister and then Chief Minister of Maharashtra (2003-04),
and held the non-political post of Governor of Andhra Pradesh for a
year before becoming Power Minister.
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas
(MPNG) - Murli Deora
---------------------------------------
¶22. (SBU) Murli Deora, 72, continues as Minister of MPNG, which he
became in February 2006, replacing Mani Shankar Aiyar, who was seen
as acting too independently on India's hydrocarbon-related foreign
activities, including in potential deals with Iran. Deora has seen
Iran as an unreliable potential partner, such as in the proposed
Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline. With strong connections
in both the Indian parliament and the U.S. Congress, Deora was an
important behind-the-scenes player and interlocutor for the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Initiative negotiations. India now imports
about 26% of its natural gas and 78% of its crude petroleum
consumption (with about 10% re-exported as refined products) and is
actively seeking equity in foreign oil and gas reserves. The
MPNG-controlled ONGC Videsh Ltd has been a potential partner in
proposed oil and gas deals with Iran, but none has yet come to
fruition.
¶23. (SBU) MPNG oversees government-owned companies responsible for
the majority of India's domestic petroleum and natural gas
production, refining, transportation and marketing, as well as its
overseas exploration, production and services activity through ONGC
Videsh. Deora says he supports decontrol of refined oil product
prices, a politically delicate position, which however could end the
need for large subsidies to GOI-owned refining and marketing
companies and could attract private sector participation. MPNG does
not control private companies like Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL),
which will soon produce new natural gas that doubles India's output,
but which is also a past and potential source of diesel and gasoline
exports to Iran.
¶24. (U) Bio: Murli Deora, prior to becoming MPNG Minister, was a
member of the Upper House (Rajya Sabha) of the Indian Parliament,
and has represented the prestigious South Mumbai constituency in the
Lok Sabha for three consecutive terms in 1984, 1989, 1991, and again
in 1998. Deora is the Congress Party's liaison with corporate
funding sources. He was previously elected Mayor of Mumbai with the
highest ever majority and was the Chief of Mumbai Region of Indian
National Congress for a record period of 22 years. He graduated in
Economics from the Univ. of Mumbai.
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) -
Farooq Abdullah
NEW DELHI 00001099 006 OF 007
---------------------------------------------
¶25. (SBU) Farooq Abdullah, 72, of the National Conference Party and
from Kashmir's predominant political family, was appointed MNRE
Minister. MNRE is responsible for policy related to renewable
energy, including wind, solar, bio-mass, and small hydropower (under
25 Megawatts capacity), but it does not directly supervise any fuel
or power production from these sources, which is mainly run by the
private sector. The MNRE is promoting feed-in tariffs and renewable
portfolio standards (RPF) and it is drafting the "Solar Mission"
policy aimed at incentives for developing and deploying photovoltaic
and solar thermal power. MNRE has been cooperative with the
U.S.-India Energy Dialogue's New Technology and Renewable Energy
Working Group, including with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office
of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in a wide variety of
programs, in addition to recently signing an MOU on Cooperation in
the Development of Bio-fuels. MNRE has also supported several
recent USDOC trade delegations for clean and renewable energy,
including the solar mission in March 2009. To date, renewables
account for only 2% of electricity production. The GOI promotes
renewables more as way to help meet the power demand-supply gap and
to deliver energy to remote areas, and less as a way to mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions.
¶26. (U) Bio: Farooq Abdullah was elected MP from Kashmir's summer
capital Srinagar in 1980 and succeeded his father as Chief Minister
succeeded on his father's death in 1982. He returned to power in
1987 and forged an alliance with Congress. After years of direct
Presidential rule, he again became the Chief Minister of Jammu and
Kashmir in 1996. His son Omar Abdullah is currently Chief Minister
of Jammu and Kashmir. His daughter Sara is married to Sachin Pilot,
the new Minister of State the Ministry of Communications and
Information Technology.
Ministry of Communications and
Information Technology (MCIT)- A. Raja
-------------------------------------
¶27. (SBU) Mr. Andimuthu Raja, 46, continues as MCIT Minister, which
he became in May 2007, after the ruling United Progressive
Alliance's coalition partner, the Tamil Nadu-based Dravida Munnethra
Kazhagam (DMK)Party forced out Minister Dayanidhi Maran, due to an
intra-DMK conflict. The MCIT is divided into the Department of
Telecom (DOT) and Department of Information Technology (DIT).
MCIT/DIT has overseen India's boom in information technology, with
India's world-class software technology and data-processing services
contrasting with its very low rate of computer and internet
penetration for the population as a whole.
¶28. (SBU) MCIT/DOT (Telecom) has presided over India's phenomenal
growth in mobile telephony, both by directly overseeing GOI-owned
MTNL and BSNL, and by allocating telecom licenses and radio spectrum
for second generation (2G: voice) and now third generation (3G:
data/video/voice) mobile services to private Indian and foreign
companies. Thus, the MCIT's authority creates a possible
susceptibility to corruption in a booming competitive private market
dependent on GOI licenses and allocations. Raja is expected to move
quickly in the long-awaited open auctions for 3G spectrum -- an act
welcomed by foreign participants. In his first term, Raja was
viewed positively for his support of raising the foreign direct
investment (FDI) ceiling to 74% and for approval of U.S. companies'
long distance licenses. However, he faced intense criticism as
"Spectrum Raja" for favoritism in his handling of 2G spectrum
allocation policy and for delays in the controversial 3G auction
policy. The Wall Street Journal India partner Live Mint's editorial
on May 29 reported that the Prime Minister had allegedly wanted Raja
out of the new cabinet, and said that Raja's reappointment "cancels
out" the PM's "positive signal" of removing another
politically-connected minister who had caused "damage."
¶29. (U) Bio: Andimuthu Raja, a 46-year old Dalit lawyer, and Member
of Parliament from Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu was groomed into a
politician by the late Murasoli Maran and is now a loyalist of
Rajathi Ammal, third wife of the DMK party Chief M Karunanidhi. He
is known for his oratorical skills. Raja held positions as Minister
of State for Rural Development and for Health and Family Welfare,
NEW DELHI 00001099 007 OF 007
and he was elevated to cabinet rank as Minister of Environment and
Forests in 2004. He is entering the Lok Sabha for the fourth time
in a row since 1996. A Raja is one of DMK's propaganda
secretaries.
A Rose by Any Other Name: New Name for Reforms?
--------------------------------------------- --
¶30. (SBU) Even amidst the positive signals coming from Congress'
stronger Parliamentary position and Ministerial choices, several
contacts this past week have mentioned that advocacy of reforms
should be handled carefully, noting that it is wrong to assume that,
because the Left is out of the way, that the government will
wholeheartedly embrace reform. Dr. Subir Gokarn, Senior Economist
for Standard & Poor, Asia, told an industry seminar on May 28 to
view the UPA's re-election mandate with caution. Calls for reform
should not be presented as "reform for reform's sake" but should be
translated into "tangible outcomes for inclusive growth." Dr.
Saumitra Chaudhury, member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory
Council, told Econoff on May 27 that reforms needed a new name,
comparing it (with only small irony) to US Treasury's renaming of
toxic assets as legacy assets. Chaudhury asserted that reforms in
India are seen as being pushed predominantly by those who most
benefit from them. Instead of reforms, he suggested calling
proposed changes as something like "home improvements," that would
address the new government's heightened focus on better service
delivery in roads, power, schools, and teachers.
Comment
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¶31. (SBU) While Post still advises tempered expectations on making
headway on key bilateral economic interests, the UPA this week sent
an encouraging message with its selection of ministers for key
economic and development posts. The Prime Minister seems to have
convinced party leader Sonia Gandhi that performance matters in
previously marginalized ministries, such as roads, health, and
education. Given the low health and education indicators that
prevail in India, these ministerial appointments are a good first
step towards improving livelihoods in India and fulfilling India's
potential as a sustained, inclusive, high growth economy, as well as
expanding opportunities for mutual, bilateral trade and investment.
The next important move will be to act quickly and decisively - the
first 18-24 months of a new Parliamentary session are the best
opportunity for policies that have longer-term gains but
shorter-term costs.
BURLEIGH