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O 181356Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6635
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RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8043
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 8324
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 001008 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR OPS, P (WEST), SCA (BOUCHER) 
NSC FOR CAMP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM EAGR ECON IN
SUBJECT: APPROPRIATE TIMING FOR A PRESIDENTIAL PHONE CALL 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 998 
 
¶1. (SBU) Embassy recommends an early telephone call from 
President Obama to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh 
congratulating India on its historic elections and the 
Congress Party's decisive mandate.  We suggest this call take 
place soon after the Indian President invites Manmohan Singh 
to form the new government.  We expect this invitation to be 
extended as early as Tuesday, May 19. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Congress Party moved swiftly May 18 to initiate 
the process of forming a new government after its 
surprisingly strong performance in the parliamentary 
elections.  Prime Minister Singh convened a Cabinet meeting 
in which the Cabinet submitted its resignation and 
recommended dissolution of the current Parliament.  The Prime 
Minister then drove to Rashtrapati Bhavan (Presidential 
Palace) to submit the resignations to President Pratibha 
Patil and recommend that she dissolve the 14th Lok Sabha 
(lower house of parliament).  President Patil accepted the 
resignations but asked the Prime Minister and his Cabinet to 
continue in office on an interim basis. 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Patil is expected to invite Manmohan Singh 
soon, as early as May 19, to form the new government.  Once 
this happens, the rest of the government formation process 
becomes a mere formality.  It would, therefore, be an 
appropriate time for the President Obama-Prime Minister Singh 
call. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) President Patil's invitation to Manmohan Singh will 
be formally extended only after the Election Commission has 
certified the elections results and submitted them to the 
President by cob (local time) on May 18.  The invitation will 
also likely come after incoming Congress Party legislators 
vote Manmohan Singh as the party leader in Parliament.  This 
is expected to occur on the morning of May 19.  Following 
President Patil's invitation, Manmohan Singh and the Congress 
Party leadership will begin finalizing the cabinet selections 
with swearing-in of the cabinet possibly coming before the 
end of this week, well before the June 2 date before which 
the new parliament is required to convene under Indian law. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Indian media is rife with speculation about 
ministerial berths for prominent Congress Party politicians. 
Embassy believes at this point only Sonia Gandhi, Rahul 
Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are in a position to know which 
posts will go to whom.  We can assess, however, that the most 
prominent Congress ministers of the previous government -- 
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister P. 
Chidambaram, Defense Minister A.K. Anthony, Commerce Minister 
Kamal Nath -- are likely to remain in the cabinet, although 
not necessarily with the same portfolios.  There is growing 
chatter about inducting more ministers from a large pool of 
younger members of parliament, many of whom were handpicked 
by Rahul Gandhi.  Minister of Human Resource Development 
Arjun Singh could lose his job because of his erratic 
behavior during the election campaign after both his son and 
his daughter were denied Congress party nominations.  Several 
Congress Party ministers who lost their contests, including 
Women and Child Development Minister Renuka Choudhary, may 
not find a place in the new cabinet. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The final numbers show that the Congress Party 
tally is now 205 seats, the first time any party has crossed 
the 200 mark in Parliament since 1991.  With its pre-election 
allies, the Congress Party alliance is up to 262 seats, 
within striking distance of the 272 seats needed for a 
majority.  It should have no trouble attracting smaller 
parties and independents to help it form a stable and secure 
government. 
BURLEIGH