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INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000930 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E Driano 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PREL EFIS ASEC UG KE
SUBJECT:  Migingo Island -- The View from Kenya 
 
REF: A) International Boundary Study No. 139, August 27, 1973, 
Office of the Geographer, INR 
 
¶1. Summary: The current dispute over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria 
sparked in 2006 when Ugandan customs officers began to collect 
levies from Kenyan fishermen fishing in waters around the disputed 
island.  Despite the competing claims to ownership and the generally 
inflammatory media hype, the Kenyan and Ugandan governments have 
both publicly declared that the issue will be resolved peacefully. 
However, the dispute has elevated the political drama within the 
GOK, as sections of the Grand Coalition government have used the 
issue to distract the public from more pressing concerns.  The 
dispute also poses something of a political embarrassment to PM 
Raila Odinga, highlighting his powerlessness to resolve the issue 
despite its location in his ethnic Luo community.  An expensive and 
unnecessary GOK survey is not likely to resolve what is ultimately a 
multi-faceted political dispute.  End summary. 
 
------------------------- 
Location and Significance 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. The island's significance lies in its proximity to one of Lake 
Victoria's most fertile fishing areas.  It is a rocky island in Lake 
Victoria located near the confluence of the Ugandan, Kenyan, and 
Tanzanian borders.  Less than two acres in size, the island is 
covered by small row houses made of rusty corrugated tin that are 
the home to roughly 500-700 inhabitants at any given time.  The 
population is approximately 70 percent Kenyan, 20 percent Ugandan, 
and 10 percent Tanzanian, Congolese and Rwandese.  In addition to 
fishing, the inhabitants survive on small trading activities related 
to foodstuffs, petroleum products, and other basic commodities. 
 
¶3. The island is 2.5 km due east of the north/south water border 
dividing Kenya and Uganda and approximately 10km off Kenya's 
Sori-Bay in Karungu Division, Migori District.  The nearest Ugandan 
land is approximately 180 km away.  Kenya's close proximity to the 
island has long implied ownership.  Since 1912 the island has been 
regarded as Kenyan territory, which was confirmed by the British 
1926 demarcation of the Kenya-Uganda border.  The 1973 INR Office of 
the Geographer's International Boundary Study (Ref A) on the 
Kenya-Uganda Border has been cited in the press to underscore 
Kenya's claim. 
 
------------------- 
The Current Dispute 
------------------- 
 
¶4. The current dispute started in 2006 when Ugandan authorities 
began demanding payment of levies from Kenyan fishermen with the 
rate for Kenyan fishermen five times that charged to Ugandans.  With 
declining stocks of fish and a depressed industry local inhabitants 
were already on edge. When Kenyans refused to pay fishing fees of 
Uganda Shs 50,000 (USD 25) and an annual boat licensing fee of Shs 
150,000 (USD 75) the Uganda authorities expelled 400 fishermen from 
the island.  In addition, the Ugandan Fisheries Minister Fred Mukisa 
ordered the inhabitants of the island to elect local council leaders 
and a Migingo Beach Management Unit, which many Kenyan inhabitants 
perceived as acquiescing to Ugandan Sovereignty.  Lastly, the 
Ugandan authorities began to voice concerns about the loss of 
revenue due to fish sold to Kenya fish processors. 
 
¶5. Tensions flared again in February 2009 when the Kenyan 
Administration Police arrived on the island and replaced the Ugandan 
flag with a Kenyan flag.  Ugandan authorities arrested the Kenyan 
Police, who were released only after intervention by Kenyan 
President Kibaki.  Kibaki and Ugandan President Museveni have a 
longstanding and close political relationship, and both governments 
have said publicly the dispute will be resolved peacefully. 
However, Kibaki otherwise has not spoken out on the issue. 
Meanwhile, the issue has gained significant press coverage, often 
sensationalist, with the media calling for the government to declare 
the island in their possession and defend it with armed force, if 
necessary.  There is some speculation that Kibaki's silence on the 
issue is designed to embarrass Prime Minister Odinga, showing him to 
be powerless to resolve the dispute which negatively affects his 
ethnic Luo community. 
 
--------------------- 
Relations with Uganda 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. The Migingo island dispute has threatened relations between the 
two traditional trade partners.  Anti-Ugandan sentiment has become 
more widespread in Kenya, especially in the Western districts and in 
a Luo-dominated Nairobi slum.  A section of the Kenya-Uganda 
railway, one of Uganda's major commercial arteries, was ripped up in 
Nairobi's Kibera slum by angry Kenyans who were demanding the return 
of Migingo.  Kibera happens to be in the Prime Minister's 
parliamentary district, and is home to many ethnic Luo from western 
Kenya.  Vehicles in Kenya bound for Uganda have also been held up by 
 
NAIROBI 00000930  002 OF 002 
 
 
Kenyan civilians in western Kenya.  The dispute has provided an 
outlet for many Luo who believe that Museveni sought to influence 
the outcome of the 2007 presidential elections in Kenya by sending 
an early congratulatory message to Kibaki and allegedly dispatching 
Ugandan soldiers to western Kenya to help put down dissent over the 
election results. 
 
------------ 
A New Survey 
------------ 
 
¶6. On March 16, the two governments jointly announced a $1.75 
million survey to be completed in two months.  Ugandan Internal 
Affairs Minister Kirunda Kivejinja said, "We're just struggling with 
old colonial boundaries."  The next day, the British High Commission 
in Kenya offered both sides access to the British government's 
historical records on border demarcation.  Kibaki, during the State 
Opening of Parliament on April 21, reiterated that "diplomacy will 
be our first line of response" and he called on Kenyans to be 
patient. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. The dispute has elevated the political drama in the Kenyan 
government, and brought into focus the long-simmering rivalry 
between PM Odinga and Ugandan President Museveni.  Odinga has called 
strongly for his government to defend its territory, but the 
coalition government has been lax to act.  Many see this as part of 
Kibaki's PNU party attempting to make Odinga's ODM party look 
feeble.  Kibaki's refusal to act on Odinga's call to defend the 
nation is both political and practical:  Kibaki sees Museveni as a 
close ally and he has nothing to gain at this point by forcefully 
attempting to assert Kenyan sovereignty.   We anticipate that at the 
conclusion of the two-month survey the results will not be mutually 
agreeable to all parties, and the issue will remain awaiting a 
political resolution.  In the meantime, the dispute has proven to be 
an excellent distraction as the nation grapples with severe drought 
and food shortages, high unemployment and inflation, and growing 
public frustration with the coalition government's inability to 
improve conditions and its dithering over implementation of 
meaningful reforms. 
 
RANNEBERGER