VZCZCXRO6295
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0873/01 1251055
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051055Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9400
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 5471
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4612
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000873 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND ACTING A/S CARTER 
USAID FOR DAA/DCHA EKVITASHVILI AND JBRAUSE 
USAID/AFR/EA FOR CTHOMPSON AND JCICCARONE 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KCHANNELL, KDISSELKOEN AND ACONVERY 
DCHA/FFP FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, SANTHONY, CMUTAMBA, AND PMOHAN 
USUN FOR DMERCADO AND HSPANOS 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU PLERNER; USAID PBROWN 
NSC FOR CPRATT AND MGAVIN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - IDPs RETURNING TO MOGADISHU 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1)  According to the United Nations, more than 61,000 internally 
displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to Mogadishu in 2009. The UN 
has identified a number of push and pull factors influencing 
returns. Due to ongoing violence, displacement from and within 
Mogadishu continues.  A U.N.-led task force has been formed to 
develop "principled positions" regarding the return of IDPs to 
Mogadishu including the premise that return should be voluntary. 
The task force is not encouraging the facilitation of massive and 
organized IDP returns to Mogadishu at this time and recommends 
support for service provision in Mogadishu. Once the security and 
protection situation in Mogadishu has improved and stabilized, 
voluntary IDP returns would be encouraged and facilitated. USAID's 
Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and Office of Food for 
Peace (FFP) are working with their implementing partners for 
expanded assistance to facilitate IDP returns. 
 
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END SUMMARY 
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¶2.  According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 
(UNHCR), more than 61,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have 
returned to Somalia's capital city Mogadishu since early January 
¶2009.  The majority of these returnees are among the estimated one 
million persons displaced from Mogadishu since the eruption of 
hostilities between the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), local warlords 
and Ethiopian forces in January 2007. 
 
¶3.  IDPs who fled Mogadishu over the past two years migrated to 
regions throughout the country with the largest concentration, 
nearly 650,000, residing in camps amongst host communities in Lower 
and Middle Shabelle Regions.  Other regions hosting large numbers of 
IDPs include Lower Juba, Bay and Bakool regions in south Somalia; 
Hiran, Galgadud and Mudug regions in central Somalia and Bari Region 
in Puntland. 
 
¶4.  The largest groups of returnees to Mogadishu are coming from 
Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions as well as from central Somalia. 
UNHCR notes an increase in flights to Mogadishu from Nairobi, Yemen, 
Ethiopia, Somaliland and Saudi Arabia, reportedly carrying returnees. 
 
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PUSH AND PULL RETURN FACTORS 
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¶5.  The withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops from the country, as well 
as the restructuring of the Transitional Federal Government (TGF) 
and ongoing peace process are viewed by many IDPs as stabilizing 
"pull" factors encouraging returns.  "Push" factors have been 
identified as insecurity and limited access to services and 
livelihood options in places of displacement.  The UN also notes the 
ongoing drought in regions of central Somalia is also contributing 
to the migration of IDPs back to Mogadishu.  IDPs residing in the 
Afgoye corridor just outside the city are able to conduct 
look-and-see visits to Mogadishu and in many cases, families have 
split, with women and children staying in Afgoye while men venture 
back to Mogadishu in search of employment. 
 
¶6.  Factors which may be inhibiting a larger return include: 
persistent insecurity in parts of Mogadishu, particularly in the 
Hodan district, where African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) 
camps attract insurgents' attacks; unexploded ordinance and mines; 
the presence of different militias opposing the government; looting; 
the destruction of homes or squatters occupying homes; lack of 
available social services; lack of employment and income 
opportunities; and high transportation costs.  UNHCR also 
highlights the fact that steady provision of aid in places of 
 
NAIROBI 00000873  002 OF 003 
 
 
displacement may be keeping IDPs from migrating back to Mogadishu. 
 
¶7.  UNHCR reports about 250,000 long-term IDPs resided in Mogadishu 
prior to January 2007.  These IDPs were mostly from minority clans 
who migrated to the city during the early 1990s and squatted in 
abandoned government buildings, relying on casual labor 
opportunities.  Many of these old caseload IDPs lacked resources to 
leave the city at the onset of unrest in 2007, resulting in 
displacement within the city to safer districts. 
 
¶8.  Civil unrest continues in Mogadishu.  During the past four 
months, more than 20,000 persons were either displaced within or out 
of the capital city.  The UN estimates that about 11,000 were 
displaced to other districts of Mogadishu while about 9,000 fled to 
other parts of the country. 
 
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UN LED TASK FORCE FORMED 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  The inter-agency standing committee (IASC), a forum for 
coordination, policy development and decision-making involving key 
UN and non-UN humanitarian partners for Somalia has formed a task 
force led by UNHCR, to formulate "principled positions" regarding 
the return of IDPs to Mogadishu.  The task force is proposing 
policies for all stakeholders that are grounded in established 
humanitarian principles. 
 
¶10.  The IASC task force has identified protection, security, and 
political considerations that should be addressed by all 
humanitarian assistance providers.  These include the premise that 
return should be voluntary.  Reducing food and other assistance at 
IDP sites can be seen as an unfavorable push factor and would affect 
the voluntary nature of return. 
 
¶11.  The IASC recognizes the ongoing unstable and unpredictable 
security situation in Mogadishu as well as the presence of 
unexploded ordinance in civilian areas of the city.  The committee 
also notes that land and property disputes may arise in Mogadishu, 
especially for IDPs who previously lived on public property.  It is 
the IASC recommendation that IDPs who lived in unused government 
buildings prior to 2007 be allowed to return to such domiciles for a 
reasonable period of time until alternative solutions can be 
identified. 
 
¶12.  Another major consideration to be taken into account is the 
paucity of a UN presence on the ground in Mogadishu; it currently 
operates by remote control.  International non-governmental 
organizations (NGO) operational in the city are also in short 
supply.  Without a strong UN and NGO presence in the city, 
monitoring systems are weak and availability of social services is 
limited. 
 
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CONTINGENCY PLANS BEING FORMULATED 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  The IASC is not encouraging the facilitation of massive and 
organized IDP returns to Mogadishu at this time.  The current 
situation in the city is not conducive to massive integration of 
returnees. 
 
¶15.  The IASC is recommending that contingency plans for returns 
should identify benchmarks and triggers to determine the various 
phases of return in order to guide humanitarian agencies' engagement 
with returnees.  The IASC task force is recommending that assistance 
programs focus on increasing assets available to returnee households 
and is advocating cash grants and cash-for-work options to 
reactivate the local economy. 
 
 
NAIROBI 00000873  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶15.  At the same time the task force recommends support for service 
provision in Mogadishu, targeting not just returnees but all persons 
in need. Community-based organizations and national NGOs should be 
strengthened to meet the service demands of returnees. 
 
¶16.  The IASC is encouraging support for immediate low-profile 
humanitarian assistance programs to support IDPs who return 
spontaneously while also assisting other vulnerable beneficiary 
groups in Mogadishu.  Once the security and protection situation in 
Mogadishu has improved and stabilized, the IASC will then encourage 
and facilitate voluntary IDP returns. 
 
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CONCLUSIONS 
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¶17.  We recognize the delicate balance that is needed to maintain 
assistance in displacement locations and scale up assistance on 
return.  USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) is 
working with implementing partners to scale up livelihood programs 
targeting Mogadishu returnees and residents.  WFP, through support 
from USAID's Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP), is planning to 
transition from soup kitchens providing cooked meals to more than 
80,000 persons daily to dry food distributions, supplementary 
feeding for moderately malnourished, and food for work programs, as 
security improves. 
 
¶18.  We commend the IASC for outlining policies and recommendations 
for Mogadishu specific humanitarian assistance interventions for 
returnees, and will encourage the UN to take a pro-active role in 
contingency planning, identification of benchmarks and triggers 
while at the same time re-establishing its presence in the city to 
monitor and facilitate livelihood and service support programs. 
 
RANNEBERGER