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OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #1053/01 1480712
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O 280712Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9637
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Political Tensions in Somaliland 
 
REF: Nairobi 645 
 
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Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Political tensions in Somaliland are high as preparations 
for the presidential election, which should have taken place in 
March 2008, are at a standstill.  The elections have been 
rescheduled four times and with a political impasse among 
stakeholders, we are pressuring Somaliland stakeholders to stick to 
the current election date of September 27. Continued delays in the 
electoral calendar have generated considerable public frustration 
which could degenerate into civil unrest.  We have urged President 
Riyale to endorse an agreement reached by key stakeholders and have 
emphasized to him the importance of reforming the National Electoral 
Committee and agreeing to a code of conduct.  We expect that Riyale 
and the opposition leaders will sign the agreement in the coming 
days.  We will continue to work with other donors to continue the 
pressure to ensure progress on the elections.  End summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
September Elections in Doubt 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In line with the Somaliland constitution, President 
Riyale's original term of office should have expired on May 15 2008, 
and an election to choose his successor should have been held at 
least one month before that date.  That election has not yet taken 
place and the date has been rescheduled on four different occasions. 
 In March, the Guurti (House of Elders) proposed September 27, 2009, 
as the new election date and extended Riyale's term in office to 
October 29.  The opposition parties initially opposed this decision, 
but have since accepted the new date, as long as Riyale's term is 
not extended again.  Current wrangling over the terms of the 
election, which will need to be captured in a code of conduct, must 
be overcome in the coming weeks for this process to move forward 
without further delay. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) All parties bear some blame for Somaliland's current 
political crisis as they have separately maneuvered to get the upper 
hand.  Riyale has been adept at blaming others for the repeated 
delays, as well as citing terrorist activity, donors, the National 
Electoral Commission (NEC), international implementing agencies, and 
the voter registration system as responsible.  Perhaps the 
single-most responsible actor for the delays in the electoral 
calendar is the NEC.  Any additional delays will likely arise 
because the current NEC is not capable of leading a process as 
complex and politically charged as the presidential elections.  The 
NEC's structure and composition must be changed if it is to provide 
proper oversight of the presidential elections 
 
----------------------------- 
National Electoral Committee 
Remains Major Impediment 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Most observers consider the NEC not only incompetent, but 
also corrupt.  Three of the commissioners were directly appointed by 
Riyale, who also strongly influenced the selection of the two 
representatives of the Guurti on the NEC.  The two opposition 
parties appointed two commissioners each but President Riyale is 
believed to directly influence the NEC, and his interference may be 
responsible for its problems.  For example, three of the 
commissioners publicly disparaged the process, the donors, and each 
other.  The NEC representatives are at odds with each other, very 
loose-tongued, and not prepared to lead an electoral process, our 
contacts say.  The political parties have weighed various options 
but so far the fear of further delays has paralyzed any action for 
change.  An idea which has some buy-in is to add several more 
members to the existing NEC.  Provided they were credible, and 
agreed upon by consensus, their presence might dilute the negative 
influence of the existing members. 
 
------------------------------ 
Mediation Makes Headway; 
Riyale Promises to Do His Part 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) After weeks of escalating tension, a local mediation 
effort led by members of the elections monitoring board brought the 
 
NAIROBI 00001053  002 OF 003 
 
 
three party leaders together for face-to-face talks in April and 
negotiated an arbitration agreement.  The agreement document sets 
out basic principles on equitable access to the media, use of public 
resources, and freedom of assembly, but defers discussion of the 
details to a code of conduct and multi-party dispute resolution and 
monitoring mechanism to be established later.  After the 
discussions, Riyale, Kulmiye opposition party chairman Mohamed 
Silanyo and UCID opposition party chairman Faisal Warabe all 
announced they had reached an agreement.  However, President Riyale 
has delayed signing the agreement.  Our contacts told us he balked 
at the specific clause that prohibits an extension of the 
presidential mandate if the elections do not take place on time. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In a May 21 phone call with former Special Envoy for 
Somalia Ambassador John Yates, President Riyale insisted that the 
April 29 agreement was "not an agreement to be signed."  He said the 
parties never met and were presented a mediation document as a fait 
accompli.  In the end, he accepted the terms, then equivocated by 
saying "We (meaning himself) will do our best...."  Ambassador Yates 
insisted there could be no more delays.  He reiterated that 
Somaliland's hallmark was its commitment to constitutionality, 
legality, and good governance. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) We were told the European Union Special Envoy for Somalia 
reinforced Ambassador Yates' messages to President Riyale in a May 
25 telephone call.  According to the EU special envoy's staff, 
Riyale responded that no expansion or modification of the NEC could 
be envisaged, as this would require modifying the legal framework 
and would inevitably delay the elections still further.  Riyale 
promised to ensure that the NEC works harmoniously with donor-funded 
partners like Interpeace and stated his commitment to the conclusion 
of a binding Code of Conduct.  Riyale reported that the "monitoring 
body" is already in place.  Riyale told the Europeans and us he is 
committed to holding the elections on September 27, and to accepting 
the result whatever the outcome. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Voter Registration: Stakeholders 
Must Endorse a Final List 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Somaliland's voter registration process, replete with a 
sophisticated biometric system, is moving forward.  Despite a number 
of flaws, there are now 1.25 million out of 1.35 million records 
with biometric data (either fingerprint or photograph).  The next 
step in the process is to establish the final parameters by which 
duplicate records are disqualified.  On this issue, much groundwork 
has been done with the political parties to ensure that they will 
accept the parameters for disqualifying a registrant.  They have 
provisionally agreed that if there is no (or duplicate) biometric 
data, the name will be disqualified and that all registrants who 
have their fingerprints and/or photos included in the system will be 
allowed to vote in the first center they registered in.  The system 
will prevent registrants from voting in other polling stations.  The 
technical experts working on the registration list will produce 
electronic copies of the final voter list, and an annex of 
disqualified voters for each of the parties before July 27.  The 
final list will be published in all polling stations shortly before 
the elections. 
 
------------------------ 
Elections Possible 
Despite Major Challenges 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The threat of al-Shabaab in Somaliland continues to 
influence the electoral process.  The October 2008 terrorist attack 
in Hargeisa set the election timeline back months and there is fear 
that another attack could further delay the elections.  The security 
risk also threatens an international presence and full technical 
support by international partners. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The democratization steering committee, led by 
Nairobi-based donors, established conditions that have to be met 
before funding can support the elections.  The conditions include a 
signed code of conduct to be submitted no later than June 21, an 
endorsed final voter registration list, a binding mediation 
committee, confirmed financial contributions by the government, and 
a detailed security plan from the government. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Provided that all the stakeholders come on board, the 
 
NAIROBI 00001053  003 OF 003 
 
 
election could be conducted by the September 27 date, however the 
challenges are formidable.  The elections are scheduled to take 
place just after Ramadan, which will mean that the formal campaign 
period and all final preparations will be held during the most 
challenging period of the year.  Current wrangling over the terms of 
the election, which will need to be captured in a code of conduct, 
must be overcome in the coming weeks for this process to move 
forward without further delay.  Funds from the government must be 
made available by mid-June to ensure the resources needed to prepare 
for and carry out the elections are not delayed. 
 
---------- 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The three Somaliland political parties are expected to 
sign the arbitration agreement by the end of May.  This needs to be 
quickly followed by an agreement on a code of conduct and the 
parameters to certify the voter registration list.  The 
international community has agreed to continue pressure on the 
government and the opposition parties.  In the phone call last week 
with Ambassador Yates, President Riyale said "You have my commitment 
that there will be elections September 27 and that there will be no 
further postponements."  U.S. pressure remains key to ensuring 
Somaliland's election process moves forward and that public 
frustration does not degenerate into conflict. 
 
RANNEBERGER