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DE RUEHBI #0187/01 1320845
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O R 120845Z MAY 09
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 2365

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUMBAI 000187 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IN PINR
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: POLLING IN MADHYA PRADESH GENERATES HEAT, 
NOT LIGHT 
 
REF: 08 MUMBAI 587 
 
MUMBAI 00000187  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  As Madhya Pradesh went to the polls in two 
phases in April, observers described the campaigns as 
lackluster, with little drama and few issues to excite the 
voters.  The state, one of the poorest in India, has been ruled 
at the state level by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since 
2003; in the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP took 25 out of 29 
seats as well.  However, political observers say the Congress 
Party will regain some ground in the Lok Sabha as it did in the 
state-level election in November 2008, picking up as many as 
three to seven seats; these gains may come in the tribal areas 
along the southern and eastern borders of the state.   With no 
national issues to get out the vote, voter turnout in the 
scorching heat was lower than hoped, estimated at about 51 
percent overall.  Commentators predicted that winning candidates 
will largely succeed on their own merits, rather than due to the 
platforms, messages, or personalities of the political parties. 
End Summary. 
 
 
 
MADHYA PRADESH BASICS 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Madhya Pradesh (MP) went to the polls to elect 29 
Members to the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament) in two 
phases, April 23 and 30.  With a population of over 60 million 
and nearly 39 million eligible voters, MP has the 
seventh-largest state delegation in the Lok Sabha.  Though 
essentially a two-party race between the BJP and Congress, 27 
parties fielded candidates and 89 people ran as independents. 
Going into the elections, the BJP held 23 Lok Sabha seats, the 
Congress five and the Samajwadi Party (SP) one.  Last year, the 
BJP's Parliamentarian from Bhind defected to the SP, and the BJP 
Parliamentarian from Damoh, ejected from the party over his 
support for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the 
no-confidence vote last fall resulting from the U.S.-India Civil 
Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, joined the Congress.  Four of 
the state's seats are reserved for members of Scheduled Castes 
(SC, or Dalits) and six, along the periphery of the state, are 
reserved for members of Scheduled Tribes (ST, or "tribals"). 
(Note:  Tribals comprise 21 percent of the state's population. 
End note.) Heavyweights contesting from MP include the 
Congress's Kamal Nath, the Union Minister for Commerce and 
Industry, and Jyotiraditya Scindia, Union Minister of State for 
IT and Communications.  Long time Gandhi loyalist Arjun Singh, 
the Union Minister for Human Development, however, was stunned 
when the Congress denied tickets to his children: daughter Veena 
Singh is running as an Independent for the Sidhi district, while 
his son, Ajay Singh, a state legislator, wanted to contest the 
seat in Satna, but decided to sit out rather than contest as an 
independent. 
 
 
 
VOTERS SOMBER AND SUBDUED 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Congenoffs visited MP April 29 and 30 to gauge the 
election mood and found a somber, dispirited electorate.  Rakesh 
Dixit, the Hindustan Times' Bhopal bureau chief told Congenoffs 
"this was the dullest election in memory."  Media sources 
estimated that voter turn out was 51 percent, up slightly from 
the 48 percent turn out in the last national election, but far 
lower than the hoped for 60 percent.  He said young voters 
failed to turn out despite a huge push by the parties, the 
media, and Bollywood stars.  While conceding that the scorching 
heat -- 104 to 113 degrees Fahrenheit -- may have been a factor, 
he said voter apathy was the primary cause.  Neither party 
excited the voters, he lamented.  Umesh Trivedi, an editor with 
the NaiDunia group of Hindi newspapers, said that those who 
actually voted were motivated by a sense of obligation to the 
system or by the individual candidates in each district rather 
than national level issues. 
 
 
 
 
 
OBSERVERS BELIEVE BJP WILL SLIP, CONGRESS TO GAIN 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
MUMBAI 00000187  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) In a repeat of the State Assembly elections in November 
2008, the Lok Sabha election is largely a fight between Congress 
and BJP candidates.  In the 2008 state elections, the BJP was 
re-elected with a firm mandate, winning 143 of 230 Assembly 
seats.  Observers credited the BJP's successful re-election in 
the 2008 Assembly elections to the leadership and appeal of the 
BJP's Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, seen by many as a 
well-respected, effective leader.  While this was a clear 
victory for the BJP, the party lost 30 seats from its 2003 
showing, and the Congress doubled its strength, rising from 33 
to 71 seats. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  However, observers believed that Chouhan's leadership 
appeal would not translate into votes for the BJP in the 
national elections, despite his intensive campaigning in every 
part of the state.  Shravan Kumar Garg, an editor at Dainik 
Bhaskar, the leading Hindi newspaper in Madhya Pradesh, said 
that the BJP's electoral fortunes had peaked and had nowhere to 
go but down.  Even the BJP's Organizing Secretary for the state, 
Anil Dave, noted despondently, "Now is not the time for the BJP. 
 We failed to carry our message to the voters.  We failed to 
tell them of our vision for the future." 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Observers project that the Congress in MP will repeat 
its modest success from the Assembly elections, gaining possibly 
three to seven Lok Sabha seats, mostly in the tribal areas along 
the southern and eastern borders of the state.  Interlocutors 
posited various explanations for the gains.  Some observers 
argued this may be due to the fact that these were traditional 
Congress-Party strongholds that voted for the BJP in the last 
national election out of frustration, but are now returning to 
the fold, while others credited the UPA's poverty alleviation 
programs and other programs that have directly assisted tribal 
populations.  Yet others said that with both parties seen as 
lackluster in MP, victory belongs to the candidate in each 
district who best inspired voters and had the best campaign 
machine to get out the vote.  Observers all commented that the 
Congress party lacked an effective state-wide machine, and many 
faulted the party's state chair, Suresh Pachouri, for passing 
over stronger candidates due to personal rivalries.  A critic of 
the BJP government's performance, Dixit blamed the Congress 
Party's poor organization and weak candidates in many districts 
for its inability to effectively challenge the BJP.  He quipped, 
"If the people had their way, the Congress would win.  If the 
Congress had its way, the BJP would win." 
 
 
 
POVERTY DROVE ELECTION ISSUES: FOOD AND ENERGY 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) The second largest state geographically, MP is largely 
agrarian and over one-third of its land mass is forest-covered. 
It is one of the poorest states in India: 73 percent live in 
rural villages, but even in urban centers the poverty is 
profound.  (Note: India defines poverty as earning less than 100 
Rupees (2 USD) per day.  End Note.)  A recent study in the 
economic paper Mint said that 36.79 percent of those living in 
rural MP are poor (almost 17 million people) and the situation 
is even worse for urban dwellers -- 42.72 percent fall below the 
poverty line (six million people).  (Note:  Only Uttar Pradesh 
and Bihar fare worse in rural poverty.  End Note.)  The Economic 
Times reports that the average annual household income in the 
state, for 2007, was 74,727 rupees, (1500 USD), compared to the 
nation-wide average household income of 115,000 rupees (2300 
USD), and only 46 percent of households are connected to paved 
roads.  A 2008 study by the International Food Policy Research 
Institute revealed that Madhya Pradesh has one of the worst 
malnutrition problems in the world.  Literacy is also low across 
the state:  the 2001 census reported a state-wide literacy rate 
of 64.11 percent (literacy is defined as the ability to sign 
one's name), nearly equal to the national average, but in eight 
blocks (roughly 100 villages each), the literacy rate for women 
was below 35 percent, and as low as 15 percent in Karahal in the 
Sheopur district.  Many vote by identifying the party symbol 
they wish to vote for as they cannot read the names of the 
candidates. 
 
 
 
 
MUMBAI 00000187  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) State Congress General Secretary Rajeev Singh listed 
specific programs of the UPA administration to aid the poor and 
bring development to the state:  the National Rural Employment 
Guarantee Program, the Farm Debt Waiver Program, free mid-day 
meals at schools, the rural roads program, and girl-child 
programs designed to offset the cost of raising a girl. (Note: 
The BJP claimed credit for this program in the state elections 
last fall.  End Note.)  Singh also claimed that the Congress has 
been able to capitalize on three other poverty alleviation 
programs:  the central government's program to regularize 
cultivation rights for tribals and other forest dwellers, the 
UPA's efforts to improve the power supply through the U.S.-India 
Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, and the Jawaharlal Nehru 
Urban Renewal program that spent 520 million dollars to build 
better dwellings for urban poor and provide potable water.  The 
BJP's 5-term incumbent in Indore, Sumitra Mahajan, remarked that 
food, electricity and water were the prime concerns of her 
electorate.  She blamed the Congress-led central government for 
failing to reign in double-digit inflation in food prices, 
maintaining that "The voters trust us to fix it when we get in 
office."  She did not offer alternative policies, however.  How 
voters credit or blame the parties for their policies is always 
difficult to discern.  S.R. Mohanty, a senior Indian 
Administrative Service officer in the state, remarked that the 
bureaucracy in the state is seen by voters as the face of the 
BJP, thus whatever frustrations there are about government 
programs are blamed on the BJP. 
 
 
 
ADVANI VS SINGH 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Neither Prime Minister candidate received high 
approval ratings from our interlocutors, though for different 
reasons.  The BJP's chief campaign strategy in the state was to 
argue that Prime Minister Singh is a weak leader compared to BJP 
prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani.  The BJP's Dave 
acknowledged that this approach misfired, as many voters 
remembered that the BJP - and Advani in particular - had 
struggled to project a strong image against terrorism when the 
BJP was in power from 1999-2004.  Anil Chawla, a researcher with 
Hindustan Studies and Services, concurred, noting that some see 
Advani as tainted by the violence from the Babri Mosque 
demolition, and others see him as old and out of touch; some, 
even within his own party, reportedly see him as arrogant and 
unable to inspire cohesiveness within the BJP's own ranks. 
Further, Advani's Sindhi Brahmin heritage gained the party no 
significant caste-based support or loyalties.  Chawla claimed 
that the BJP's usual partners do not want to deal with Advani, 
so they, too, have backed away from supporting the BJP's PM 
candidate. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was seen as more 
respected, though not necessarily more approachable.  Sumeet 
Maheshwari, co-owner of Navbharat Group press said that voters 
viewed favorably the accomplishments of Singh's government and 
saw that in a crisis he made good decisions and was tough with 
Pakistan without risking war.  Media interlocutors noted that 
the current PM is generally seen by voters as a kind, peaceful 
face that Indians, in MP at least, want representing them.  They 
noted, however, that he does not connect well with the common 
voter.  During his eight visits to MP during the campaign, Singh 
limited his talks to business groups, instead of mass rallies or 
interaction with common voters.  Dixit observed that the PM is 
very intelligent and appeals to educated voters, but is often 
unable to connect with the masses. 
 
 
 
PEOPLE TO WATCH 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  In an otherwise lackluster campaign, two candidates 
stood out:  the Congress's Satyanarayan Patel, running against 
Sumitra Mahajan in Indore, and the BJP's Sushma Swaraj, running 
unopposed in Vidisha thanks to her Congress opponent's failure 
to properly file his candidacy papers.  Shukla said Patel is 
seen as a very bright, able candidate; now 42, he has been 
involved in politics since he was 18 years old.  Patel had 
previously been elected to the state Assembly from two 
 
MUMBAI 00000187  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
constituencies included in the Indore Parliamentary seat, but 
lost in the fall 2008 Assembly elections when Congress put him 
on a ticket in a new, third district.  While none of our 
interlocutors projected him to beat his five-time incumbent BJP 
opponent, Sumitra Mahajan, his career was frequently noted as 
worth following.  When Congenoff encountered Patel on the 
campaign trail, Patel seemed well informed on the issues, was a 
good public speaker, and stayed energetic, despite the scorching 
heat.  In discussion with both Mahajan and Patel, he was clearly 
the more articulate and informed candidate, but as Karansingh 
Pawar, himself a former MLA, noted, the common voter is often 
put off by intelligence and prefers politicians who speak at 
their level. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (U) Swaraj is a 57-year old former two-time Indian cabinet 
minister for Information and Broadcasting during the BJP-led 
governments in Delhi.  She was Chief Minister of Delhi and 
currently serves in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house, 
representing Madhya Pradesh.  She is a lawyer by training but 
has spent most of her life in politics, starting in Haryana, her 
home state.  She was understandably confident of victory in 
Vidisha, with no Congress opponent, and campaigned in other 
states to help BJP candidates, concomitantly building her own 
base of support for the future.  Observers posited that even if 
Congress had not failed in its efforts to contest this seat, 
Swaraj would have won, as the BJP has controlled the seat for 
the last six elections. 
 
 
 
THIRD FRONT A NON-ISSUE IN MP 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  Though the Lok Sabha elections have historically 
been a two-party contest in MP, third parties made some inroads 
in the state elections last fall.  Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj 
Party (BSP) won seven seats in the Assembly, but is not 
anticipated to make an impact in the Parliamentary elections. 
Traditionally, the BSP has eaten into the Congress Party's vote 
banks, but Sanjay Shukla opined that business kingpins, looking 
for turf they could control, would be shifting support to BSP, 
cutting into the BJP vote bank as well. (Note:  In contrast, 
Congress leader and candidate for the Indore seat, Satyanaran 
Patel, argued that business leaders and the intelligentsia, 
normally core BJP voters, like the steady, pro-growth leadership 
of Congress's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.  End Note.)  In the 
end, pundits felt that the BSP would gain in vote share, but not 
enough to win any seats.  Uma Bharati, a former BJP Chief 
Minister of the state, had fielded her own party for the 
Assembly elections and won five seats, but is sitting out this 
election. 
 
 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Comment.  While the final verdict of this suspenseful 
national election will be known only when the votes are counted 
on May 16, the consensus among pundits was that the Congress 
Party will gain three to seven seats in MP.  The BJP is likely 
to retain their traditional urban seats of Indore, Bhopal and 
Jabalpur, while the swing seats are along the periphery of the 
state, in tribal areas traditionally seen as Congress bastions. 
 The expectation that the Congress will pick up seats is 
credited to the merits of individual candidates especially in 
this current atmosphere where Congress fans and foes alike 
describe the current Congress state Chairman, Suresh Pachouri, 
as ineffective and disorganized.  While party loyalty was seen 
as less of a factor in this election than the ability of 
individual candidates to turn out voters, in this economically 
challenged state, the poverty alleviation programs of Congress 
also inevitably played a role in winning back a few seats for 
Congress in the most economically depressed areas.  Nonetheless, 
the BJP is likely to maintain its strong hold over most of the 
state.  End Comment. 
FOLMSBEE