VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0249/01 1261707
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061707Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8986
INFO RUCNMER/MESUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000249 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UY
SUBJECT: Uruguay Elections - Majority of Cabinet Likely to Seek 
Elected Posts 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. As the election season moves into higher gear, President Vazquez 
informed the members of his cabinet that any individuals who wish to 
campaign in October's general election will need to resign their 
positions after the June 28 primaries.  It seems likely that the 
majority of the cabinet will do so.  Replacements are likely to be 
selected in accordance with their ability to complete outstanding 
initiatives in what is widely seen to have been a successful 
presidency.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. President Vazquez announced during a cabinet meeting April 20 
that any ministers wishing to pursue elected office in October's 
general election would need to tender their resignation from the 
cabinet after Uruguay's national primary (internal party elections 
to determine presidential candidates) on 28 June.  The move is not 
unprecedented; a similar request was made by President Luis Alberto 
Lacalle (1990-95) to his Cabinet members.  Mindful of the 
considerable strain that campaigning places on ministers' schedules, 
President Vazquez is hoping to ensure that the cabinet's ability to 
function is not too badly impacted by the election season.  The move 
could also be viewed as a way of moving controversial members of the 
cabinet out of the public limelight, to better the governing 
coalition's chances in the fall elections. 
¶3. The ruling Frente Amplio coalition (Broad Front, or FA) party's 
substantial victory in 2005 with over 50 percent of the total vote 
meant that Vazquez's administration was the first since the return 
of democracy in 1985 in which the cabinet has not included 
opposition party ministers.  As its name states, however, the FA is 
a broad coalition, and that means each cabinet minister has a key 
role to fulfill within his/her own party in addition to cabinet 
responsibilities.  Each of those parties will be trying to maximize 
their political positions in the coming months, placing significant 
demands on their top politicians.  Once the internal elections have 
revealed not only the FA's presidential candidate but also the wider 
political lay of the land, the pace of political activity will ramp 
up dramatically.  At stake is not only the presidency, but all the 
seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.  Not all 
factions with representatives in the cabinet are happy with 
Vazquez's ultimatum; there is a fear among some that once their 
candidates have stepped down from a ministerial position, their 
diminished public profile may result in fewer votes. 
 
¶4. Although none of the resignations below have been confirmed, the 
Embassy predicts that around 7 members of the 13-minister-strong 
cabinet (plus one de-facto minister) are expected to resign. 
 
A speculative summary follows: 
 
- Interior Minister Daisy Tourne, a member of the Socialist Party, 
will probably resign.  Note: the Socialist Party backs presidential 
hopeful Danilo Astori, who currently polls in second place within 
the FA.  End note.  Although she has expressed a desire to remain 
with the Vazquez administration until the completion of his term, 
she has a sizeable number of detractors resulting from battles with 
police unions, rising crime, and widely criticized prison decisions. 
 
- Defense Minister Dr Jose Bayardi, from the 'Vertiente Artiguista,' 
faction, as well as Vice Minister Jorge Menendez, are likely to 
resign and seek parliamentary seats.  Vertiente Artiguista supports 
presidential hopeful Marcos Carambula, currently in third place. 
 
- Enrique Rubio, head of the Planning and Budget Office of the 
Presidency (a de-facto ministerial position) is also aligned with 
the Vertiente Artiguista faction.  Rubio was once a potential 
presidential candidate himself and, like Bayardi, carries the kind 
of clout that could see him secure a seat in the Assembly in 
October. 
 
- Transport and Public Works Minister Victor Rossi, a member of the 
'Alianza Progresista,' has announced that he knows what his decision 
is, but that he will wait until July to announce it.  Less coy 
political sources have suggested it is probable he will campaign for 
a parliamentary seat.  Note: the Progressive Alliance supports 
Marcos Carambula. 
 
- Industry, Energy and Mining Minister Daniel Martinez, a member of 
the Socialist Party, was once a potential presidential candidate 
himself.  He retains a high profile in the party.  The Socialists 
are hopeful he will make it to the Senate. 
 
- Labor and Social Welfare Minster Eduardo Bonomi is a member of the 
Movimiento de Participacion Popular faction (The Popular 
Participation Movement or MPP), which is home to the present 
Presidental Candidate front-runner Jose Mujica.  His clear 
aspirations for a Senate seat make his resignation probable. 
 
- Agriculture, Livestock and Fish Minister Ernesto Agazzi is also a 
 
member of the MPP faction and is also seen as a possible 
parliamentary candidate.  He has been a lightning rod for criticism 
by ranchers critical of his handling of the drought in late 2008 and 
early 2009. 
 
- It seems possible that Tourism and Sports Minister Hector Lescano 
may also resign.  He is presently playing his cards close to his 
chest, however, declaring that Vazquez's announcement will require 
some 'personal reflection' before he announces his decision in June. 
 Lescano is a member of the Partido Democrata Cristiano-Alianza 
Progresista (Progressive Democratic Christian Alliance Party) and is 
backing Astori. 
 
- Economy and Finance Minister Alvaro Garcia, a Socialist, is likely 
to move back to the private sector after the election and will 
therefore not be required to resign.  Garcia is very close to the 
foreign minister and president, and is considered key to maintaining 
economic equilibrium amidst worldwide economic turmoil. 
 
- Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Gonzalo Fernandez, a member of the 
Socialist Party but a criminal defense attorney by trade, is also 
thought to be returning to private practice after he relinquishes 
his ministry.  He has stated that he will remain in office until the 
end of the Vazquez government. 
 
- Education and Culture Minister Maria Simon, from the 'Leftist 
Independent Sector,' has made no statement about her intentions, 
including which candidate she plans to support.  It is widely 
assumed that she will choose to stay in her Cabinet position. 
 
- Social Development Minister Marina Arismendi of the Communist 
Party is much more definite; she has made it clear that she has no 
aspirations to a parliamentary seat and will not resign.  Increased 
social spending, although criticized by the opposition, has been a 
hallmark of the Vazquez government. 
 
- It also seems probable that Public Health Minster Maria Julia 
Munoz, a former member of the 'Vertiente Artiguista' faction and a 
close ally of the President, will opt to keep her place in the 
Cabinet.  She may well return to private practice after the 
election. 
 
- Housing, Land Use Planning and Environment Minister Carlos 
Colacce, also close to Vazquez, is likely to remain in the Cabinet. 
He is a member of the Leftist Independent faction, but is considered 
to be more technocrat than political heavyweight.  He plays a key 
role in developing Uruguay's plan of action on climate change, but 
has been criticized for not delivering on GOU promises for low-cost 
housing. 
 
¶4. There is no word yet on possible replacements for the departing 
ministers, but it is likely many will be promoted from within their 
ministries.  A key exception may be the interior minister, an 
important position that in Uruguay holds precedence over all other 
Cabinet slots.  Vazquez seems to be aiming for a calm and steady 
close to this chapter of his political life.  Public approval 
continues to be high.  An opinion poll published this week not only 
shows a 53 percent approval for his administration's performance, 
but also places his personal popularity at 61 per cent, making him 
by far the most popular politician in Uruguay.  Last year's cabinet 
reshuffle (Vazquez's first), in which some political allies were 
moved into ministerial positions, already signaled Vazquez's desire 
to consolidate his achievements and reputation.