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R 111352Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6423
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUCNMEU/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0495
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2596
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE 0406
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1134

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 001276 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD KFLU TBIO PINR PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: H1N1 INFECTS MEXICAN POLITICS 
 
REF: A. MEXICO 1269 
     ¶B. MEXICO 1260 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  While the Government of Mexico (GOM) 
generally got high marks for its response to the H1N1 flu 
outbreak, communication at times was lacking between federal 
and state health authorities, and in Mexico City the three 
main parties representing federal, state and local efforts 
often did not coordinate operations.  The PRI Governor of the 
State of Mexico and the PRD Mayor of Mexico City, potential 
presidential candidates in 2012, worked independently of the 
federal government, raising questions about whether they 
sought political advantage.  Separately,  some commentators 
suggested the GOM had used the crisis to divert attention 
from security problems in the country.  With the outbreak 
turning out less serious than first believed, it is not 
unlikely some of the government's political opponents could 
fault it for overreacting.  It remains unclear how the 
government's performance will play into the midterm 
elections.  End Summary. 
 
Government Responsiveness and Coordination 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Mexican public thus far has generally approved 
of the federal government's handling of the H1NI flu 
outbreak, according to preliminary public opinion polls. 
Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova was given high marks for 
addressing questions raised by the press in regular public 
briefings.  Although President Calderon was criticized for 
keeping a low profile at the beginning of the crisis, he 
recently made two televised addresses to the nation.  He 
tried to pre-empt criticism that his administration 
overreacted to the flu, indicating that it had saved lives 
and allowed the rest of the world to prepare for the 
epidemic.  Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate 
Adriana Terrazas, however, argued that the current outbreak 
was a "distraction" maneuver by the federal government, to 
divert attention from the true "pandemic" of crime and 
violence.  Ruling National Action Party (PAN) National 
President German Martinez Cazares, however, dismissed the 
notion that politics had influenced the government's response. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Each of the three major parties assumed a major role 
at the epicenter of the crisis in the Mexico City 
metropolitan area, but coordination was uneven.  Mexico City 
Mayor Marcelo Ebrard from the opposition Democratic 
Revolution Party (PRD) held his own news conferences and 
issued his own decrees, including the controversial decision 
to close Mexico City establishments including restaurants, 
bars, theaters, gyms, etc. and institute a city code alert 
system.  At the same time, he made his first trip to Los 
Pinos, the presidential residence, in the three years since 
Felipe Calderon was elected, for a meeting of Mexican 
governors.  At the meeting, Calderon reportedly called for 
stepped up communication about the disease between federal 
and state health authorities. 
 
¶4. (SBU) PRI State of Mexico Governor Enrique Pena Nieto 
pointedly decided not to close local establishments though 
many appear to have closed on their own.  Local PAN leaders 
maintained that the governor had sought political gain over 
the crisis with frequent public appearances in the place of 
his health secretary.  The PRD filed a complaint with the 
State of Mexico Electoral Institute claiming the city of 
Nezahualcoyotl had distributed letters with a personal 
message from the governor about the success of the state's 
efforts.  More recently, the governor has proposed Mexico 
undertake an international campaign to improve the global 
perception of Mexico and stimulate the tourism industry. 
 
Political Reaction to the Stimulus Package 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) In an attempt to mitigate the economic impact of the 
H1N1 virus, the Government of Mexico (GOM) announced a USD 
1.4 billion stimulus package in the form of a number of tax 
breaks.  PRI Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones maintained 
that the package was "insufficient" and that "the federal 
government should make a better effort to attend to the 
 
MEXICO 00001276  002 OF 003 
 
 
(tourism) sector."  Mexico City Finance Secretary Mario 
Delgado also criticized the package, arguing that it was 
"insufficient in terms of size and timing to tackle the scale 
of the crisis."  Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard had already 
expressed reservations regarding the federal measures, 
arguing that "there should be a national effort (to rescue 
the economy) comparable to the curent health 
measures...Isolated measures will not suffice...to overcome 
the challenge we are facing."  Nuevo Leon business leaders 
were highly critical of the government's plan to reduce taxes 
to support businesses hurt by H1N1 flu closings, calling the 
measures absurd.  They told the local press that the package 
was a farce, as the government already was unable to collect 
the taxes that were reduced in the relief plan. 
 
H1N1 and Elections 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Even as the campaign season for midterm elections 
began May 3, large political rallies of more than 40 people 
were discouraged.  With big rallies ruled out, campaigns are 
pouring more money into virtual outreach through the internet 
and even text messages.  Nonetheless, the "legitimate 
government" website of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) 
reported that 2000 followers attended an event in Tabasco 
this week, in which AMLO politicized the flu issue. 
President Felipe Calderon "alarmed people through the media 
and spread fear among Mexicans," he said.  The PRD claims 
that Calderon is using the crisis for political gain. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Federal deputy candidates in Chihuahua seized on the 
flu epidemic for their campaigns.  PRD candidates Xochitl 
Flores and Jose Luis Olivas announced their intention to 
distribute hundreds of packages with bleach and detergents 
among their electorate, as well as yellow surgical masks with 
their party logo.  PAN candidate Hector Hernandez announced 
that he would start his campaign by distributing surgical 
masks and information leaflets on the current flu epidemic. 
Other candidates have also stamped the masks with their names 
and party logos. 
 
Xenophobia and Trade 
-------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Meanwhile, members of the Permanent Commission of 
Congress, a body that sits weekly during the periods that the 
full Senate and Chamber of Deputies are in recess, called for 
the federal government to condemn "xenophobia" against 
Mexicans abroad due to the flu outbreak.  Much of the 
indignation was directed toward China, where groups of 
Mexicans had been quarantined.  PRI Senator Recardo Cervantes 
accused China of lacking the moral ground to judge Mexico on 
public safety issues, pointing to its history of producing 
products manufactured with toxic materials.  Mexican 
authorities sent an airplane to China to transport the dozens 
of Mexicans who had been held in quarantine despite the fact 
that none had shown any flu-like symptoms.  They returned to 
a hero's welcome and were received by Mexico's First Lady. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Mexican Council of Foreign Trade (COMCE) 
reported that Mexican exports also are being "discriminated" 
against at foreign borders around the world.  Many Mexican 
shipments are being detained for more than 48 hours in order 
to allow for exhaustive inspections by customs agents.  In a 
joint press release, the governments of the U.S., Canada and 
Mexico asked the world not to use the H1N1 flu as a trade 
barrier, and reiterated that their governments are doing 
everything they can to control effectively the outbreak. 
During a speech in Michoacan, Calderon remarked that the 
demonization of Mexican products and people was unwarranted 
and described the return of the Mexican aid ship from Haiti 
as "unnecessary".  The Foreign Relations Secretariat (SRE) 
issued a statement to the UN, urging it to stop the 
discriminatory measures many countries are taking against 
Mexican citizens. 
 
U.S. Scores Points 
------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) Most media continue reporting good relations 
 
MEXICO 00001276  003 OF 003 
 
 
between Mexico and the U.S.  One columnist noted, "While our 
Latin American 'brothers' have turned their back on us during 
this difficult time, Barack Obama has shown us more than one 
gesture of kindness and solidarity."  Assistant Secretary for 
Health Mauricio Hernandez acknowledged the 400,176 doses of 
Tamiflu and the USD 7 million donated by the USG.  He also 
gave special thanks to the U.S. for keeping its 3000 mile 
long border open. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment:  While most still believe the GOM may have 
prevented a major outbreak, there is a growing sentiment in 
some circles that government officials overreacted and 
unnecessarily hurt the economy, especially in the services 
and tourism sectors.  The GOM's new GDP growth forecast for 
2009, adjusted to include the maximum negative 0.5 percent 
impact of H1N1, now stands at negative 4.5 percent. 
Independent analysts believe the economy could shrink even 
further -- maybe even as much as 5.9 percent.  The outbreak 
managed to overshadow the drug war, which continues to cause 
heavy casualties.  At this juncture it remains unclear which 
party, if any, will reap the greatest advantage from the flu 
crisis.  End Comment. 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT