VZCZCXRO9707
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1269/01 1281329
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081329Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6413
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUEHXQ/ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA 3835
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0503
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2590
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0200
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1128

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MEXICO 001269 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS; 
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR 
MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR 
CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DPPPC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT:  SITREP 14 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY 
 
REF: MEXICO 1250 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY 
-------------- 
The GOM announced that the number of confirmed H1N1 cases now 
stands at 1,204 including 44 fatalities.  The two additional 
fatalities were from analysis of backlogged samples.  Mexico 
City reduced its alert level from orange to yellow which 
means that normal business and social operations may continue 
with strict adherence to government sanitation guidelines. 
 
¶2.  (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:  With the gradual return to normalcy, the 
President and the Health minister warned that the influenza 
outbreak was still a very serious threat to public health and 
urged continued adherence to government prescribed sanitation 
precautions.  The President also remarked that the 
demonization of Mexican products and people was unwarranted 
and described the return of the Mexican aid ship from Haiti 
as Q&unnecessary.Q8 
 
MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: The Mexico City government decided to 
reduce the alert system from orange to yellow.  That means 
that gyms, bars, etc. can open.  Soccer matches will still be 
played without an audience.  Work places, restaurants, 
theaters will have screening systems to ask a client with 
symptoms to leave the establishment.  All places of business 
are to maintain strict adherence to the governmentQ,s 
sanitation guidelines and provide ample access to hand 
washing or sanitizing facilities.  High school and university 
students returned to classes. 
 
 
¶3.  (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
No new information to report. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) STATISTICS 
-------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a 
May 7 press conference that the number of confirmed cases now 
stands at 1204 that includes 44 fatalities.  The two latest 
fatalities were a woman in San Luis Potos! and a man in 
Tlaxcala.  The Health Secretary clarified that these were not 
new cases but that rather dated cases that had just been 
confirmed following an analysis of samples.  Cordoba further 
indicated that the percentage breakdown of fatalities stands 
at 49.5% women and 50.5% men. 
 
STATE BY STATE:  The GOM did not issue state by state numbers 
of confirmed cases on May 7.  The table below reflects the 
current state-by-state breakdown of fatalities: 
 
CHIAPAS Q) 1 
DF - 29 
HIDALGO Q) 1 
MEXICO STATE Q) 5 
OAXACA Q) 1 
SAN LUIS POTOSI Q) 4 
TLAXCALA - 3 
 
¶5.  (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES 
--------------------------- 
 
The Health Unit has seen a decrease in the volume of 
suspected cases of H1N1 influenza, however continues to test 
when presented with flu-like symptoms.  It registered no 
additional confirmations or probable cases. 
 
 
 
MEXICO 00001269  002 OF 006 
 
 
¶6.  (U) SECURITY ISSUES 
----------------------- 
 
No new information to report. 
 
 
¶7.  (U) CONSULAR ISSUES 
----------------------- 
 
Call volume to the Embassy switchboard returned to normal 
levels with 56 calls regarding visa and passport issues 
received.  In the 24 hours through 0700 AM May 7, the 
switchboard received 0 H1N1 related inquiries. 
 
Since the cessation of visa operations, approximately 10,000 
visa appointments were cancelled nationwide.  However, 
Consular operations do not expect a significant increase in 
backlog.  Rescheduling will be conducted by the scheduling 
service. 
 
¶8.  (U) CONSULATE ISSUES 
------------------------ 
CIUDAD JUAREZ:  The Chihuahua State Secretary of Health and 
the El Paso Health Department report that there are 4 
confirmed cases of H1N1 virus in Chihuahua and 7 confirmed 
cases in El Paso.  More than 216,000 high school and 
university students in the state returned to classes on May 
¶7.  State health authorities disclosed to Post that the 
number of possible H1N1 cases may increase in the coming 
weeks as schools resume normal operations. 
 
With the exception of bars and nightclubs - which remain 
closed - most businesses and government services are now 
operating on a normal schedule.  Restaurant-bars and event 
halls are open, but must close by 1 a.m. and limit the number 
of patrons to 50 percent of normal capacity.  There is 
growing disquiet among leaders in the service sector, who 
argue that local and state authorities have not adequately 
explained their decision regarding business closures and 
suspended hours. 
 
Occupancy rates at a selected sample of Juarez hotels are 
approximately 30 percent lower than the week prior to the 
H1N1 outbreak.  Several managers of hotels that do not cater 
to visa applicants cited occupancy rates as low as 14 percent 
in recent days.  This figure contrasts with hotels in the 
immediate vicinity of the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad 
Juarez, which report an average occupancy rate of 25 percent. 
 The Director for Border Tourism in Ciudad Juarez asserted 
that the H1N1 outbreak, combined with the high levels of 
narco-violence, threaten to stigmatize the Chihuahua tourism 
industry. 
On May 7, non-immigrant visa services resumed with a very 
small number of applicants.   Normal NIV operations will 
begin on May 11 and immigrant visa services will begin on May 
¶18. 
 
GUADALAJARA:  Despite having maintained that Jalisco remained 
H1N1 free, Jalisco Governor Gonzalez announced at a press 
conference yesterday afternoon that Jalisco now has 15 
confirmed cases.  He stated that they were diagnosed as 
potential cases early and the patients will be able to return 
to their normal routines soon.  The ages of the patients 
range from 12 to 40, and the individuals are from different 
families and different neighborhoods.  Jalisco still has 
additional cases pending confirmation.  At this point, the 
number of infections in Jalisco only represents 1.34 percent 
of the total in Mexico. 
 
Most universities opened today, and while students and 
employees were not required to wear masks, they were 
encouraged to do so.  Additional preventative measures 
consisted of pre-entry screeing in the form of a series of 
questions, similar to what has been used in airports, to 
 
MEXICO 00001269  003 OF 006 
 
 
identify potentially infected individuals.  Schools and 
public institutions, including public transportation, have 
implemented a routine cleaning program to disinfect all 
public areas.  Some public schools are waiting for sanitary 
supplies to arrive. 
 
The Consejo Empresarial Mexicano de Comercio (COMCE) reported 
today that already low export numbers from Jalisco have 
diminished further due to the H1N1 virus.  Exports were 
already down due to the economic situation; numbers recorded 
prior to the outbreak marked a decrease from last year of 
between 15 and 18 percent.  COMCE announced that it expects 
another 10 percent decrease due the outbreak.  It cited 
shipments received at ports, such as Los Angeles, that 
undergo a strict inspection process delaying delivery by 24 
to 48 hours.  COMCE asserts that a recovery will take up to 
six months.  Overall, it expects exports to decrease 15 
percent in 2009 in comparison with 2008. 
 
NIV scheduled 200 appointments for today, but only 40 slots 
were filled.  Additional appointments are open for tomorrow. 
The NIV section is prepared for a full schedule of 
appointments on Monday, but, due to the flu, does not 
anticipate that all slots will be filled.  ACS again fielded 
a full schedule of appointments, but with a significant drop 
in emergency requests. 
 
HERMOSILLO:  No new information to report. 
 
MATAMOROS:  No new information to report. 
MERIDA: Hotel occupancy in Cancun is now at 20 percent and 
six hotels have announced temporary closure (about half 
through May 15 and the rest through May 31).   The hotels 
that are temporarily closing have multiple properties and are 
consolidating their diminished volume of occupants into a 
fewer number of hotels. 
The Governors of Yucatan and Quintana Roo separately met with 
representatives from the cruise ship industry to urge their 
return to Mexico sooner than the June 15th date previously 
announced. 
Throughout the peninsula, universities and high schools, 
cinemas, shopping centers, and archeological sites are 
reopening.  There is a noticeably lower level of activity 
throughout the region.  Local press reports predict a slow 
recovery and estimate that low demand will continue in the 
tourist sector for at least six months. 
The Consulate opened limited visa services today with 
capacity for 100 applicants.  Thirty were scheduled. 
However, only one applicant appeared for his interview. 
MONTERREY:  State governments emphasized that they are open 
for business, even as they clean schools and urge citizens 
not to lower their guard.  In the states of San Luis Potosi 
and Durango the hospitals report that consultations about flu 
have stabilized, or in the case of Durango they have 
decreased 10%.  However, since the medical consultations in 
Durango had increased 50%, they are still 40% higher than 
normal.  In Nuevo Leon, SNTE teachers union head Elba Ester 
Gordillo said that schools would still be closed for 
teachersQ, day May 15, but she may agree to extending 
classes.  Nuevo Leon Governor Gonzalez Paras stated that 
citizens and businesses acted responsibly, and he urged a 
return to a normal life in the community.  In San Luis Potosi 
(SLP) the government again publicized that the state 
hospitals will soon have the capability to analyze flu 
samples without sending them to Mexico City.   The 
governments also seek to address the impact on business. 
Zacatecas proposed a state plan to lower taxes to help 
hotels, nightclubs and other affected businesses.  The 
federal government plans to fine 71 businesses in Coahuila 
that did not close May 1-5. 
 
The number of confirmed cases climbed in several states.  In 
Nuevo Leon there are now nine confirmed H1N1 cases (up from 
four yesterday).  The laboratory samples for these patients 
 
MEXICO 00001269  004 OF 006 
 
 
were taken between April 23-26 and Nuevo Leon just found out 
the results.  All are recovering, and two received anti-viral 
medication.  In San Luis Potosi (SLP), four people died from 
H1N1 virus (up from one).  SLP has 96 cases of H1N1 flu, 227 
cases have not been analyzed, and 44 people remain 
hospitalized.  Zacatecas still has 33 confirmed H1N1 cases. 
Durango did not update the number of confirmed cases, but as 
a precaution 41 people are on anti-viral medication. 
Coahuila proudly proclaims that it is still H1N1 free. 
 
A Monterrey tourism official stated that hotel occupancy is 
at 20%, vs 60% normally.  He also stressed that the May 1-5 
weekend is a big one for regional tourism, and now that has 
been lost.  Tourist operators have also seen companies cancel 
business meetings through June, although events are still on 
for July onward.  The Nuevo Leon maquila association 
continued to complain about the four businesses that were 
fined for opening from May 1-5.  Yale University has also 
decided to cancel its summer exchange program with Monterrey 
TEC University for 2009.  In addition, approximately 25 
flights to San Luis Potosi have been cancelled because people 
were Q&afraidQ8 to visit the tourist sites there. 
 
In Consulate Monterrey, there are no suspected cases of H1N1 
flu among FSO or LES staff and their dependents.  About 200 
NIV applicants will come in today to the consular section for 
rescheduled interviews.  The consular section is also quickly 
rescheduling H2 interviews for next week.  1,174 H2 
interviews are scheduled for enrollment at the ASC Monday May 
11 and consular interviews Tuesday May 12. 
 
NOGALES:  No new information to report. 
 
NUEVO LAREDO:  The public is calm and many people continue to 
wear face masks but in decreasing numbers.  Public awareness 
remains high regarding the possibility of contacting H1N1 but 
public anxiety seems to be decreasing.  There are still no 
confirmed cases of H1N1 in Neuvo Laredo. 
 
 
TIJUANA:  The number of confirmed cases for Baja California 
remains at 18.  According to the state health secretary, 
eleven of the 18 are women and the age range of cases extends 
from six months to 37 years of age.  He also repeated that 
there is no known connection among the victims.  Schools are 
set to re-open in keeping with the scheduled outlined by the 
federal government.  In preparation, all schools are being 
cleaned and disinfected prior to opening.  Sectors of the 
state are beginning to evaluate the economic losses that the 
flu alert has caused or contributed to.  There was reportedly 
a 90% drop in hotel occupancy, a 10% drop in consumer 
purchases, a 70-80 % drop in service industry businesses, and 
essentially no business in the tourism sector along Avenida 
Revoluci"n.  The president of CANACO stated that the losses 
can be tied to the measures imposed by the federal government 
to combat the flu epidemic, even though it at no moment 
affected Tijuana.  He suggested that the measures taken were 
Q&exaggeratedQ8, comparing the response in Tijuana to that of 
San Diego.  Consular is resuming normal services, with a 
phase-in of NIV appointments this week and a full re-opening 
next week. 
 
MEXICO CITY CONSULAR DISTRICT:  No new information to report. 
 
¶9.  (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
On May 7, the top item was the reopening of businesses in 
Mexico City.  The local Scientific and Sanitation Vigilance 
Committee lowered the alert level and announced that all 
businesses, including movie theaters, night clubs, stadiums, 
auditoriums, gyms, etc. in Mexico City could resume their 
services entirely. In spite of the optimism, President 
Calderon and Health Secretary Cordova once again reminded the 
public that the virus is not yet under control and that high 
 
MEXICO 00001269  005 OF 006 
 
 
sanitation standards must be maintained.  Secretary Cordova 
even said that it will take weeks to control the virus. 
Another relevant topic in the coverage was that President 
Calderon once again criticized foreign governments for the 
actions they have taken to prevent the A H1N1 flu.  During a 
speech in Michoacan, he reproached Haiti for rejecting a 
Mexican ship with humanitarian aid.  In contrast, most media 
continue reporting of good relations between Mexico and the 
U.S.  As one columnist noted, Q&While our Latin American 
Q brothersQ, have turned their back on us during this 
difficult time, Barack Obama has shown us more than one 
gesture of kindness and solidarity.Q8 
Also prominent in the press coverage was the announcement 
that Canadian and U.S. scientists announced advances in the 
development of a vaccine against influenza.  Q&Scientists 
could decode the genetic sequence of the virus, which will be 
crucial in the elaboration of a vaccine.Q8 
 
 
¶10.  (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT 
------------------------ 
 
--The Tourism Secretariat and the Tourist Promotion Council 
are already working on a set of measures to stimulate 
tourism.  Currently, the tourism sector is measuring the 
damages caused by the H1N1 flu outbreak in hotels, airlines, 
cruises and congresses/seminars. 
 
--The demand for canned and frozen food, detergents and soap 
increased during the past week.  The press reported that the 
prices of some of these products also rose and some companies 
were forced to increase their production lines to meet the 
larger demand.  Other companies said they had enough stock 
and they only delivered before the scheduled time. 
 
--Restaurants were among the most affected businesses last 
week. Yesterday they began to open at 50% of their capacity, 
but today the Mexico City government authorized them to 
conduct business as usual provide they took all the actions 
already announced by the government.  According to the 
association of franchises, sales dropped by 90%. 
 
--The alert also had a negative impact on facilities leased 
for baptisms, weddings, parties, etc.  Large party and 
conference rooms have said they had losses of USD 228,000. 
 
--The Pacific Airport Group reported that due to the economic 
recession and the flu it lost about 15.3% of passengers 
flows.  The group expects more losses in the coming months 
until the perception of MexicoQ,s effective controls of the 
epidemic changes abroad. 
 
--Despite the governmentQ,s incentives to attract cruises to 
Mexican shores, the industry does not expect to come back 
until the sanitary alert is over.  Carnival announced that it 
will resume its routes to Cozumel on June 15. 
 
--The Confederation of National Trade Chambers (Concanaco) 
said that sales have declined by 60% and that their income 
has fallen by USD 625 million.  The services and tourism 
sectors have reported losses for more than USD 337 million. 
The most affected have been the micro, small and medium-sized 
businesses, such as restaurants, bars, gyms, etc.  The 
industry is asking for more fiscal stimulus measures. 
 
--The Mexican Council of Foreign Trade (COMCE) reported that 
Mexican exports are also being Q&discriminatedQ8 against at 
foreign borders around the world.  Many Mexican shipments are 
being detained for more than 48 hours in order to allow for 
exhaustive inspections by customs agents.  Because of these 
delays, COMCE reports that companies are seeing their foreign 
sales fall by 25%.  Exports had already fallen 18% during the 
first quarter of the year as a result of lower demand in the 
U.S. 
 
MEXICO 00001269  006 OF 006 
 
 
 
--In a joint press release, the governments of the U.S., 
Canada, and Mexico asked the world not to use the H1N1 flu as 
a trade barrier, and reiterated that their governments are 
doing everything they can to effectively control the outbreak. 
 
--The Fiscal deficit is expected to increase from 1.8% to 2% 
of GDP -  Finance Secretary Carstens acknowledged yesterday 
in a TV interview that the fiscal deficit would likely rise 
from the authorized 1.8% to 2% of GDP as a result of the H1N1 
outbreak, because of a lower tax collection for about USD 760 
million.  However, the government does not expect to cut 
spending this year because it wants to keep stimulating the 
economy.  Carstens said that the government has also kept and 
will keep foreign and domestic debt under control. 
 
 
¶11.  (U) TRANSPORTATION 
----------------------- 
Airlines view favorably the GOMQ,s announcement of economic 
relief but say more is needed for the aviation sector.  Their 
wish list includes a reduction in landing fees, a cut in the 
airport use tax assessed on passengers, a subsidy of the 
price of jet fuel, and a campaign to cleanse the countryQ,s 
flu-sullied image.  One airline country manager notes he 
expects Cancun to move aggressively and lead the recovery -- 
cutting prices, recruiting tourists, and refilling empty 
airplanes.  The same contact cited resumption of port calls 
by cruise lines as a key indicator by which to measure 
returning confidence. 
 
 
¶12.  (U) POLITICAL IMPACT 
------------------------- 
 
No new information to report. 
 
 
¶13.  (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE 
------------------------ 
 
The Charge and senior CDC and OFDA representatives delivered 
remarks during a Ceremony of Appreciation at the Secretariat 
of Health on May 7.  The remarks thanked the GOM for its hard 
work and openness during this crisis and pledged continued US 
assistance.  During the ceremony, Mauricio Hern ndez, 
Asssitant Secretary for Health, acknowledged the 400,176 
doses of Tamiflu and the 7 million dollars donated by the 
USG.  He also gave special thanks to the U.S. for keeping our 
3000 mile long border open. 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
BASSETT