VZCZCXRO7072
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1237/01 1260103
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060103Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6375
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2576

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001237 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, 
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS 
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES) 
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER) 
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA 
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 12 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico 
 
REF:  MEXICO 1236 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY 
-------------- 
 
Mexico aimed for a return to normalcy on 5 May, with many 
re-openings scheduled for 6 May.  The Secretary of Health put total 
confirmed H1N1 cases at 866 and confirmed deaths at 26.  A chorus of 
indignation at discrimination against Mexicans abroad continued. 
The Secretary of Finance announced economic stimulus and offered a 
preliminary measure of the influenza's cost to GDP growth. 
 
¶2.  (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:  Finance Minister Carstens announced 17 billion 
pesos in economic relief measures the morning of 5 May (see economic 
impact, section 10).  The Secretariat of Communications and 
Transportation looked to demonstrate that passengers were still 
flying and that the country's civil aviation system was functioning 
normally.  Mexican lawmakers announced they would convoke the Latin 
American Parliament, an international organization composed of 
regional parliamentarians, to denounce "discriminatory practices" by 
several Latin American governments. 
 
MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: Mayor Ebrard defended his cross-party-line 
cooperation with the federal government the day after a 4 May 
meeting with President Calderon.  The city's Secretary of 
Government, Jose Angel Avila, provided new details on the planned 6 
May re-opening of restaurants.  Hours are to be limited from 0700 to 
2200 and restaurants must reduce seating capacity by 50%. 
 
¶3.  (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
The Archdiocese of Mexico issued a communique of reproach targeting 
those who, internationally and domestically, had seized on the 
influenza to discriminate against Mexicans.   Singled out for 
special mention were China and the Latin American countries that had 
closed their borders to Mexico. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) STATISTICS 
-------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: In a 5 May morning press conference, Secretary 
of Health Cordova announced the number of confirmed cases had 
reached 866, while the number of fatalities was steady at 26. 
According to the Secretary, the cases of 140 deceased individuals 
remain to be analyzed.  The female-to-male ratio neared even keel in 
the overall case count, with women comprising 50.9% of confirmed 
cases. 
 
STATE BY STATE:  27 states have confirmed cases.  Below is the 
state-by-state breakdown compiled by the Secretariat of Health, as 
of 1700 hrs on May 4.  State-by-state statistics do not align 
exactly with the overall federal count presented by the Secretariat 
of Health.  A state by state breakdown of the May 5 statistics 
mentioned above is not yet available. 
 
State-by-state Statistics (cases, deaths) 
Auguascalientes 5, 0 
Baja California 18, 0 
Baja California Sur 0, 0 
Campeche 1, 0 
Chiapas 10, 0 
Chihuahua 4, 0 
Coahuila 0, 0 
Colima 10, 0 
Distrito Federal 476, 24 
Durango 2, 0 
Guanajuato 1, 0 
Guerrero 3, 0 
Hidalgo 53, 1 
Jalisco 0, 0 
State of Mexico 87, 1 
Michoacan 1, 0 
Morelos 0, 0 
 
MEXICO 00001237  002 OF 005 
 
 
Nuevo Leon 4, 0 
Nayarit 0, 0 
Oaxaca 1, 1 
Puebla 4, 0 
Queretaro 2, 0 
Quintana Roo 3, 0 
San Luis Potosi 59, 0 
Sinaloa 0, 0 
Sonora 2, 0 
Tabasco 6, 0 
Tamaulipas 1, 0 
Tlaxcala 21, 2 
Veracruz 2, 0 
Yucatan 1, 0 
Zacatecas 34, 0 
Not specified 3, 0 
Total 822, 29 
 
¶5.  (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES 
--------------------------- 
 
The Embassy Medical Unit reports no new cases in the Embassy 
community and awaits test results for one "probable" case and eight 
additional outstanding cases. 
 
¶6.  (U) SECURITY ISSUES 
----------------------- 
 
The Embassy will convene its Emergency Action Committee at 0900 on 6 
May to discuss the evolving situation. 
 
¶7.  (U) CONSULAR ISSUES 
----------------------- 
 
The Embassy switchboard received 170 calls during the 24 hour period 
from 0700 4 May to 0700 5 May, an increase from low weekend call 
levels.  19 related to H1N1 directly, while more than 150 addressed 
passport and visa issues.  Between 0700 and 1600 on 5 May, the 
switchboard fielded 43 calls.  In the main, callers looked to 
schedule or reschedule appointments for consular services.  Regular 
consular services will resume 11 May. 
 
¶8.  (U) CONSULATE ISSUES 
------------------------ 
 
GUADALAJARA:  Although there have been no official reported cases of 
H1N1 yet in the state of Jalisco, local media report that in fact at 
the Hospital Civil, there might be eight cases. The State Health 
Secretary denies this, but anonymous inside reports from doctors 
there indicate these cases exist. One additional case was reported 
in Colima.  Primary and secondary schools will prepare to open next 
week, and the major universities here have mostly indicated that 
they will open as normal starting tomorrow. Businesses are also 
returning to normal.  The duty officer received no calls for ACS 
support over the last 24 hours. 
 
HERMOSILLO:  A second case of H1N1 has been confirmed in the 
Hermosillo consular district.  The subject is an 8-year old male 
from Sonora and is currently receiving treatment.  It is believed he 
contracted virus in the U.S.  Sinaloa still has no confirmed cases. 
The Sonora Secretariat of Health announced it will not conduct 
passive inspections of southbound travelers coming into the state. 
The focus instead will go to a public awareness campaign regarding 
identification of symptoms, what to do if sick, where to go for 
help, etc.  Sinaloa announced similar public outreach efforts, with 
renewed focus on rural communities.  Both Sonora and Sinaloa will 
follow federal guidelines regarding the opening of schools. 
Universities will open this week and primary/secondary schools on 11 
May.  Over the last 24 hours the Duty Phone has experienced no calls 
from AmCits regarding H1N1. 
 
MATAMOROS:  The situation remains the same as the last few days.  No 
cases reported, still light traffic going both ways on the bridge. 
High School classes resume 7 May and Elementary School classes 
resume Monday, 11 May.  All classes in Brownsville resume 7 May. 
There are more people circulating on the streets and in restaurants 
and businesses.  Things appear to be returning to normal. 
 
MEXICO 00001237  003 OF 005 
 
 
 
MERIDA:  The situation remains much the same.  Kinder and primary 
schools will remain closed through the end of the week.  High 
schools and universities plan to re-open 7 May.  Transportation 
checks and health screenings continue around the peninsula.  Tourism 
contacts in Quintana Roo state that international travel agencies 
are pessimistic about summer travel and will focus instead on winter 
travel to major Mexican resorts, including Cancun and the Riviera 
Maya.  Cancun international airport reports 32 flight cancellations 
on 5 May and 191 flights (104 international) still operating.  The 
Consulate plans to reopen tomorrow and anticipates processing a 
number of lost and stolen passport applications built up over the 
recent closure.  The Duty officer is receiving very few calls.  The 
public remains calm but concerned about long term economic impact. 
 
MONTERREY:  State governors all attended the 4 May meeting with 
President Calderon, and announced the return of students to classes. 
 State governments will clean schools and reemphasize student 
hygiene.  State governments announced no other new measures against 
H1N1 flu. 
 
Media reports discussed school re-openings, measures to clean 
schools, how Mexicans have been treated by other countries such as 
China (but not the U.S.), and the economic impact of the flu scare. 
Several newspapers quoted business leaders lamenting the large 
economic impact of the measures to prevent the spread of H1N1 flu. 
In Nuevo Leon, a representative of business association Coparmex 
estimated that 2 billion pesos were lost each day in productive 
activity.  San Luis Potosi saw an 85% decline in commercial sales, 
80% of businesses closed, and hotels at 10% occupancy.  In Nuevo 
Leon and Coahuila, restaurant owners complained proposed sanitary 
measures of distances between patrons' tables were unrealistic. 
Nuevo Leon's business association Caintra protested the proposed 
fines on four manufacturers for not closing between May 1 and 5. 
 
NOGALES:  CBP reports normal to heavy northbound traffic at both 
Nogales ports of entry, consistent with local holiday travel. 
Northern Sonora still reports zero cases.  The case count on the 
U.S. side of the border is also unchanged.  Pima County has 6 
confirmed cases (4 on Tohono O'odham Reservation, 2 in metropolitan 
Tucson), Yuma County has 1 confirmed case (Yuma), Santa Cruz County 
has 1 confirmed case (Nogales), and Cochise County has no confirmed 
cases. 
 
Visa services are suspended through 8 May.  If services re-open 
sooner, H2 applicants will be contacted as soon as possible.  ACS 
services continue with limited service for emergencies and the unit 
will accept passport/CRBA applications.  The lack of uniform school 
closing policies in Arizona is causing some confusion.  Schools in 
Metro Phoenix (with the vast majority of reported Arizona cases) 
will remain open, while the entire Nogales school system has closed 
(with only one confirmed case). 
Visa service 
TIJUANA:  No new cases have been identified in Baja, although 
officials are still awaiting results on the last samples sent; there 
are at least 13 "suspect" cases pending results.  San Diego now has 
24 confirmed cases and 24 "probable" cases.  Border crossing wait 
times appear to be back to normal.  The Duty Officer reports no 
flu-related calls over the past 24 hours.  The restaurant industry 
reported a 40% decrease in business during the past week/weekend, 
according to restaurant association CANIRAC.  CANIRAC is placing 
part of the blame on the U.S. media portrayal of the H1N1 flu as 
affecting all of Mexico, while Baja -- in CANIRAC's description -- 
remains calm and relatively unaffected.  James Gerber, director of 
the Center for Latin American Studies at San Diego State University 
and an economist, stated the obvious -- the flu is "...likely to be 
very, very expensive" for Mexico.  It is generally agreed that, 
though, that businesses in Baja have not been as hard hit as those 
in Mexico City. 
 
¶9.  (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Media coverage on May 5 in the Mexican media focused on the 
announcement of President Calderon of the return to "normality." An 
enthusiastic Milenio headlined its feature story "Good News." 
"Thanks to the actions taken by the government and the people, we 
are ready to begin resuming our everyday lives," stated President 
 
MEXICO 00001237  004 OF 005 
 
 
Calderon. According to authorities, most economic activities will 
resume Wednesday, 6 May, universities and high schools will restart 
classes Thursday, 7 May, and primary and secondary level schools 
will do so on Monday, 11 May. Other businesses like movie theaters 
and bars will remain closed until further notice.  Secretary of 
Health Cordova announced reports of new hospitalizations had dropped 
80% and the number of confirmed cases increased to 866, with 
fatalities steady at 26. Other media outlets were less enthusiastic 
in their headlines but reiterated the message: "Businesses open 
tomorrow, classes start on Thursday" (La Cronica); "Progressive 
return to schools" (El Universal); "A conditioned return to 
normality is decreed" (La Jornada); "High schools, universities 
resume classes on Thursday" (El Sol de Mexico); "Economic activities 
to be resumed" (Uno mas uno). Newspaper La Cronica's editorial 
warns, "We must be fearful of the epidemic and act intelligently and 
prudently. If we act otherwise, then consequences could be fatal. We 
must not make the mistake to believe that we have defeated the 
virus. This ain't over till it's over." 
 
Also very prominent in the media was President Calderon's public 
reproach of countries that have taken actions against Mexico. "In 
the name of all Mexicans, I ask every nation that has taken actions 
that negatively affect Mexico and don't really help to stop the 
outbreak to cease them...I express a strong rejection of these 
discriminatory measures." There was a lot of reaction in the media 
and in the international community.  The French ambassador to Mexico 
went on the radio to announce the arrival of antiviral medicine 
donated by his country.  The ambassador of Argentina offered a 
public apology for the measures taken by President Kirshner to 
cancel flights to and from Mexico and for having referred to Mexico 
as a "sick country."  Spain's ambassador agreed with President 
Calderon and condemned discriminatory measures against Mexicans, 
while reiterating his country's solidarity.  The Secretariat of 
Foreign Affairs (SRE) started a campaign to defend the image of 
Mexico. SRE's Subsecretary for multi-lateral affairs asked the U.N. 
to publicly condemn discriminatory measures.  The U.N. Secretary 
General stated his condemnation of "exaggerated measures...that 
affect economies, societies and peoples."  Press reports also 
mentioned the WHO director's call not to stop flows of people, 
products and services.  Most opinion makers supported the 
President's call.  "I don't like the way some countries have 
reacted...I expected something very different from Latin American 
countries.  Let us hope for the sake of good diplomatic relations 
that this can be corrected," stated Radio 13 commentator Javier 
Solorzano.  Excelsior analyst Jorge Fernandez Menendez added, "Fear 
has torn us apart. The measures taken by some countries do not 
follow WHO protocols and target Mexicans specifically."  The good 
relationship between the U.S. and Mexico was highlighted once again 
with reports of the meeting of President Obama with Ambassador 
Sarukhan in Washington for Cinco de Mayo celebrations. 
 
Finally, another crucial news item was President Calderon's 
announcement that his economic cabinet will meet to come up with a 
stimulus package to face the added economic challenges brought on by 
the influenza outbreak. The tourism sector is expected to reap the 
most benefits from this package, which includes tax cuts and ad 
campaigns. 
 
¶10.  (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT 
------------------------ 
 
At a press conference the morning of 5 May, Finance Minister 
Carstens acknowledged that H1N1 will have a "significant" impact on 
Mexico's economy.  Based on his ministry's study of similar 
incidents in other countries, the impact could be between .3 and .5% 
of Mexico's GDP.  Some sectors -- tourism, dining, and lodging -- 
have suffered more than others.  However, Carstens stressed that 
Mexico will recover quickly, and President Calderon has instructed 
his administration to make it so. 
 
Carstens outlined various economic supports to help Mexico recover 
quickly.  If the impact reaches .5% of Mexico's GDP, tax collection 
will fall by 10 billion pesos.  However, the Mexican government will 
not implement new taxes to recoup these estimated losses.  To 
protect employment, the government will discount 20% of employee's 
social security and other fees, not to exceed 35,000 pesos per 
employee.  Employees will also see a reduction of their flat-rate 
 
MEXICO 00001237  005 OF 005 
 
 
business income tax, which will reduce Mexican businesses' overall 
tax bill by about 2 billion pesos.  Businesses in Mexico's tourist 
industry will benefit from other reductions in payroll taxes and the 
hotel tax.  The federal government will also compensate the affected 
Mexican states for the loss of tourism with 500 million pesos.  Air 
traffic control fees and cruise line docking fees will be halved, 
and financing will be made available to provide liquidity for 
affected businesses.  Proposed measures total approximately 17.4 
billion pesos. 
 
Around Mexico City, businesses are re-opening, including department 
stores, auto mechanics, hair salons, and pet stores.  Commercial 
activity has picked up, grocery stores are packed, fewer face masks 
are evident, and the traffic has returned.  People appear eager to 
return to normalcy. 
 
¶11.  (U) TRANSPORTATION 
----------------------- 
 
The GOM's announcement of aid to the aviation sector buoyed spirits 
today as airlines put flesh to their plans to reduce the new 
overcapacity on Mexico routes.  Flight cancellations continued 
across the country but few travelers experienced difficulty reaching 
their destinations.  American announced an expected reduction in 
flights, cutting daily round trips from 42 to 31 but maintaining 
service to all 14 stations. 
 
¶12.  (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE 
------------------------ 
 
President Calderon received the CDC's Mexico team leader, Dr. Steve 
Waterman, at Los Pinos on 5 May.  The President expressed thanks for 
close U.S.-Mexico cooperation in responding to the H1N1 outbreak. 
 
BASSETT