VZCZCXRO6004
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1236/01 1250018
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050018Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6370
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2571

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001236 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, 
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS 
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES) 
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER) 
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA 
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 11 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico 
 
REF:  MEXICO 1235 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY 
-------------- 
 
The Minister of Health announced May 4 that the number of new H1N1 
cases has declined and that there have been no new deaths.  However, 
as Mexico clears a backlog of older H1N1 samples, the total number 
of confirmed cases has risen to 727 and deaths to 26.   Mexican 
schools will reopen gradually, beginning with universities and high 
schools on May 7 followed by lower schools and preschools on May 11. 
 Similarly, the Mayor of Mexico City announced a gradual reopening 
of businesses and services beginning with restaurants on May 6 and 
museums and libraries on May 7. 
 
¶2.  (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:  After meeting with state governors, President 
Calderon announced that universities and high schools will re-open 
on May 7.  All other schools (middle, primary and preschool) will 
re-open on May 11.  He added that schools will be thoroughly 
disinfected before reopening and stressed the importance of 
maintaining precautions after schools re-open. 
 
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced May 4 that it would send a 
charter plane to China today to repatriate any Mexican nationals 
that are currently in quarantine and who would like to return to 
Mexico.  The press reports that 70 Mexican nationals who do not have 
H1N1 symptoms are currently in quarantine in China. 
 
In a May 3 press interview, President Calderon stressed that the GOM 
responded quickly and appropriately to the H1N1 outbreak.  He added 
if Mexico had not been so transparent about the H1N1 outbreak there 
would have been many more cases and deaths around the world. 
 
The Ministry of Finance will eliminate taxes on medical equipment, 
medical supplies and imports of alcohol for disinfection. 
 
The Minister of Health announced that the GOM will distribute 
sanitary guidelines that restaurants, schools and businesses should 
implement. 
 
MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: During a May 4 press conference, the Mexico 
City government announced that restaurants, cafeterias and all 
government offices will re-open on May 6, while museums, libraries 
and convention centers will re-open on May 7.  Bars, discos, sports 
stadiums and movie theaters will remain closed for the time being. 
The Mexico City government will advise businesses what precautions 
they must take when re-opening. 
 
The Mayor of Mexico City announced a new "alert" system which will 
be used to inform the public about the level of any potential health 
risks.  The system is color coded with green representing the lowest 
level of risk and red the highest. 
 
¶3.  (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
On May 3 the campaigns for the midterm elections kicked off without 
any public events. Several parties including the governing 
right-of-center PAN and the opposition left-of-center PRD agreed to 
yield part of their ad time to the Secretariat of Health for public 
announcements. 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) STATISTICS 
-------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 4 
morning press conference that the number of confirmed cases now 
stands at 727 (out of 2164 total cases tested), including 26 
fatalities - the latest of which was recorded on April 29.  Of the 
26 deaths, 16 were women and over half were between 0-19 years old. 
 
 
STATE BY STATE:  26 states have confirmed cases.  Below is the 
 
MEXICO 00001236  002 OF 005 
 
 
state-by-state breakdown of cases compiled by the Secretariat of 
Health, as of 2000 hrs on May 3.  (A state by state breakdown of the 
May 4 statistics mentioned above is not yet available.) 
 
State-by-state Statistics (cases, deaths) 
Auguascalientes 5, 0 
Baja California 11, 0 
Baja California Sur 0, 0 
Campeche 0, 0 
Chiapas 10, 0 
Chihuahua 4, 0 
Coahuila 0, 0 
Colima 9, 0 
Distrito Federal 318, 16 
Durango 2, 0 
Guanajuato 1, 0 
Guerrero 3, 0 
Hidalgo 40, 0 
Jalisco 0, 0 
State of Mexico 76, 4 
Michoacan 1, 0 
Morelos 0, 0 
Nuevo Leon 0, 0 
Nayarit 0, 0 
Oaxaca 1, 1 
Puebla 3, 0 
Queretaro 2, 0 
Quintana Roo 3, 0 
San Luis Potosi 58, 0 
Sinaloa 0, 0 
Sonora 1, 0 
Tabasco 4, 0 
Tamaulipas 1, 0 
Tlaxcala 19, 1 
Veracruz 1, 0 
Yucatan 0, 0 
Zacatecas 15, 0 
Not specified 2, 0 
Total 590, 22 
 
¶5.  (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES 
--------------------------- 
 
Of the 12 samples taken by the Medical Unit from Embassy personnel 
and EFMs, one case has been confirmed positive, one is probable and 
two have been confirmed negative.  The results of the eight 
remaining tests are pending. 
 
¶6.  (U) SECURITY ISSUES 
----------------------- 
 
Nothing new to report. 
 
¶7.  (U) CONSULAR ISSUES 
----------------------- 
 
Call volume to the Embassy switchboard continues to decline.  In the 
24 hours through 0700 AM May 4, the switch received only 5 H1N1 
related inquiries. 
 
 
¶8.  (U) CONSULATE ISSUES 
------------------------ 
 
CIUDAD JUAREZ:  No change in the number of confirmed cases of H1N1 
in the state of Chihuahua.  The Chihuahua State Secretary of Health 
reported to Post on May 4 that there are four confirmed cases and 
that this number has not increased since May 2.  On May 4, Dr. 
Hector Puertas, the delegate for the Secretary of Health in Ciudad 
Juarez, told Post that since the outbreak began there have been a 
total of 63 possible cases in Ciudad Juarez: 18 tested negative, 8 
tested positive for seasonal flu, 2 tested positive for swine flu, 
and 35 are still pending laboratory results. 
 
 
GUADALAJARA:  Western Mexico remains quiet.  There are no reported 
cases of the H1N1 virus in the state of Jalisco.  There are 6 
 
MEXICO 00001236  003 OF 005 
 
 
reported cases in the state of Colima - at the beach town of 
Manzanillo - all of whom are receiving treatment and recovering, 
according to media reports.  Duty officer has received no calls 
though the weekend about any ACS cases. 
 
Though traffic is light, businesses are reopening and people are 
beginning to gather once again in parks and public places through 
the metropolitan zone.  Fewer are wearing precautionary masks and 
overall there is a sense that the crisis has passed. 
 
 
HERMOSILLO:  In a meeting with Consulate staff and other local 
participants, the Sonoran Secretary of Health announced May 4 the 
first confirmed case of H1N1 influenza in the state.  The subject is 
a 15 year old male from Hermosillo, Sonora.  His blood sample was 
one of 15 returned from D.F. yesterday - one week after the sample 
was sent for testing.  The Secretary confirmed that although the 
youth tested positive, he is currently not showing any adverse 
effects.  The Secretary announced that the youth likely was exposed 
to H1N1 on a recent trip to either Phoenix or Tucson, AZ.  As a 
result, Sonora is considering passive inspections of southbound 
travelers coming into the state.  This would involve asking 
individuals health and/or travel-related questions.  Subjects who 
appear ill or considered to be possible carriers would be referred 
to local medical care.  If enacted, passive inspection would begin 
Tuesday, May 5th.  The Secretary also announced that parents across 
the state will be invited to help clean/decontaminate Sonoran 
schools beginning May 5th.  The consulate has received no calls from 
AMCITS regarding H1N1 influenza over the past 24 hours. 
 
 
MERIDA:  Hotel occupancy throughout the Yucatan Peninsula remains 
low.  Cancun Airport reports 9 cancelled flights for May 4, all 
international, but passengers remain calm. The Cancun Airport 
continues to report a very small volume of arriving passports. 
Throughout the Peninsula, health checks continue at transportation 
hubs.  Three Merida shopping centers closed May 4 for the day. 
Schools and cinemas remain closed.  Quintana Roo reports three 
confirmed cases of H1N1.  Yucatan reports its first confirmed case 
of Type A influenza but test results are still pending for H1N1. 
Tourism contacts report that while continuing to monitor the 
situation, their attention is turning to a recuperation plan.  The 
public remains calm but concerned about the long term economic 
impact of the outbreak. 
 
Consulate and Consular Agency staff and EFMs remain calm.  The 
Consulate remains closed.  The Duty officer is receiving very few 
calls. 
 
MONTERREY:  The governments of Nuevo Leon, Coahuila and Zacatecas 
emphasized that while they do not have any confirmed cases of H1N1 
flu, people should continue to take preventive measures.  Nuevo Leon 
has moved to fine four factories which did not close as ordered.  In 
Nuevo Leon, things are starting to return to normal, with more 
traffic and more patrons in restaurants.  Although San Luis Potosi 
(SLP) has 58 confirmed cases, the state government is sounding the 
same tone, saying that H1N1 flu has entered a stable phase, but 
residents should not lower their guard.  In contrast, after 
confirming two cases of the H1N1 virus, the Durango governor 
declared a maximum health alert, including information how to 
prevent the H1N1 flu and encouraging face masks. 
 
San Luis Potosi (58 cases) and Durango (2 cases) are the only states 
in the consular district with confirmed cases of H1N1 flu.  Nuevo 
Leon has investigated 310 possible cases, and found that 259 are not 
H1N1 flu.  In Coahuila, the number of possible cases climbed from 89 
to 97.  Durango is still investigating 38 possible cases.  There are 
no suspected cases of H1N1 flu among FSO or LES staff or their 
dependents. 
 
Media reports again emphasized how other countries were inspecting 
Mexican travelers; flights have been cancelled, and discussed 
whether schools would open and efforts to sanitize the schools, and 
the economic impact.  There were widespread reports that fear of the 
flu has dramatically reduced commercial sales, including a 50% drop 
in sales in Torreon, Coahuila, and economic activity is "paralyzed" 
in Durango.  In Nuevo Leon, basic services continue to operate 
 
MEXICO 00001236  004 OF 005 
 
 
normally, and more people are venturing outside their houses.  In 
addition, many traveled to nearby Texas for the weekend. 
 
 
NOGALES: There is no change in public reaction.  CBP reports normal 
to light northbound traffic at both Nogales ports of entry. There 
are no confirmed cases of H1N1 flu in Northern Sonora, but H1N1 is 
prevalent in border counties in Arizona with six confirmed cases in 
Pima County, one confirmed case in Yuma County and one confirmed 
case in Santa Cruz County. 
 
Visa service Visa services are suspended through May 8th, but if 
services open up sooner, post will contact H2 applicants.  ACS 
services continue with limited service for emergencies and 
passport/CRBA applications. 
 
 
NUEVO LAREDO:  The public is calm and many people continue to wear 
face masks.  There are still no confirmed cases of H1N1 in Nuevo 
Laredo but there are nine suspected cases.  Restaurants and grocery 
stores remain open to the public.  Bridge traffic to Laredo, TX 
appear to be lighter than average.  A public campaign to promote 
better sanitation and prevention of the H1N1 virus started today 
with a meeting between Luis Eduardo Campbell Loa, the Health 
Director of Nuevo Laredo, Aurelio Uvalle Gallardo, the Director of 
the Department of Regional Education, and Ramsn Garza Barrios, Mayor 
of Nuevo Laredo. 
 
 
TIJUANA:   Of 50 samples sent for testing, the number of confirmed 
cases of H1N1 flu in Baja now stands at 13 (10 in Mexicali, 1 in 
Ensenada, and 2 in Rosarito). Two patients remain hospitalized in 
Mexicali and two in Rosarito.  Border crossing wait times appeared 
to return to fairly normal levels for a week day, with waits of more 
than an hour at Otay Mesa and 1.5 to 2 hours at San Ysidro. 
According to one tourist business organization (CETURMEX), even 
though they remained open, the discos, "dives" and nightspots in the 
city suffered a 95% drop in business this weekend compared to the 
previous weekend, probably due to a decline in persons crossing from 
San Diego.  Rosarito was "desolate" over the weekend, including the 
beaches, due to the lack of tourists.   The Duty Officer reports no 
flu-related calls. 
 
 
¶9.  (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Coverage on May 4 of the H1N1 flu outbreak in the Mexican media 
focused mostly on the announcement of Secretary of Health Cordova 
that the outbreak was stabilizing (with 727 cases and 26 deaths) - 
after its peak on April 28 - and that in preparation for resuming 
economic activities his agency drafted guidelines for prevention and 
control of the H1N1 virus for restaurants, public transportation, 
and the workplace. Secretary Cordova invited business owners to 
review and enforce the guidelines, which include sanitation tips as 
well as recommendations of minimum spaces of separation between 
customers in restaurants and movie theaters. 
Several media interpreted this as the first signs of recuperation. 
"We are receiving the first signs of hope. If the government's 
figures are correct, then the infection rate and the deaths are 
decreasing... It seems that the government is getting ready to lower 
the emergency level. Especially because the suspension of business 
is taking a toll on the economy," stated El Universal's political 
gossip column Bajo Reserva. Newspaper Milenio's Trascendio echoed, 
"The good news Secretary Cordova gave us confirmed the rumor that 
business will resume on May 6 and schools will be reopened on May 
11." Many newspapers featured this as the front page story: 
"Outbreak going down" (El Universal); "Government sets rules to 
resume business" (Excelsior); "Outbreak numbers drop" (La Cronica); 
"Businesses reopen on Wednesday" (El Sol de Mexico); "Flu yields" 
(Rumbo de Mexico). In spite of the "moderate optimism," health 
officials reminded the population that the outbreak is not over. 
On Sunday the campaigns for the midterm elections kicked off without 
any public events. The media reported that some parties took 
advantage of the outbreak for political gain by distributing 
surgical masks with the party logo. 
 
¶10.  (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT 
 
MEXICO 00001236  005 OF 005 
 
 
------------------------ 
According to press reports, the business sector estimates that the 
impact of the world recession combined with the H1N1 influenza 
outbreak will result in a GDP loss of between 4.3 and 5.4%, the 
worst contraction of the Mexican economy in 13 years. One financial 
paper predicted that unemployment rates will rise to the highest 
rate since 1995, trade will drop to its 2006 levels, FDI to its 1999 
levels and remittances to its 1996 levels. 
The National Chamber of Restaurants and Food reports that the 
restaurant sector has suffered losses up to USD 100 million due to 
government ordered closures. 
Government inspectors found that forty-eight percent of businesses 
in Mexico City did not comply fully with the government's order to 
close restaurants and non-essential services.  In Acapulco, 19 
businesses have been fined between USD 800 to USD 4000 dollars. 
 
¶11.  (U) TRANSPORTATION 
----------------------- 
 
The financial impact of empty planes is leading U.S. and Mexican 
carriers to reduce capacity on U.S.-Mexico and Mexican domestic 
routes by cancelling 40% or more of flights.  For most U.S. 
carriers, the reductions will hold through June, and longer if 
conditions persist.  Mexican airlines, dependent on the home market 
for cash flow, have scheduled down this week but hope to restore 
service in the days ahead.  Airlines will likely request GOM 
financial assistance, in the form of reduced landing fees and other 
cost-savers. 
 
Aeromexico averages 17,000 passengers through its Mexico City 
International Airport (AICM) hub on the first day of long weekends. 
On 30 April, the first day of the current vacation weekend, the 
number was 7,000.  Aeromexico expected to operate roughly 120 
flights (total inbound/outbound) at AICM on 4 May, down from 320 
normally.  Cancellations were primarily on domestic routes, and 
Aeromexico's 12-14 daily flights to the U.S. were flying. 
 
Of the 5 largest U.S. carriers serving Mexico, 4 had announced 
flight cuts as of 4 May.  Continental has cut 40% of its aircraft, 
against a weekly roster Mexico-wide of 450 flights.  Continental 
will reduce service at AICM from 118 flights in/out per week to 78 
this week, and 60 the week of 11 May.  All 29 stations in Mexico 
will continue in service.  Delta is cutting 40% of its weekly 350 
flights to/from Mexico.  Delta is likely to suspend service at some 
of its stations.  US Airways is cutting 38% of capacity but will 
retain service at all 12 of its Mexico stations.  United will more 
than halve its 60 weekly flights, to 24, but keep its 4 stations 
open.  American, which has not yet announced reductions, will do so 
in coming days. 
 
 
¶12.  (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE 
------------------------ 
The U.S. Embassy issued a press release May 3 announcing that the 
USG delivered a total of USD 16 million in assistance to Mexico 
including a five million dollar donation to the WHO and PAHO, a USD 
1 million dollar donation of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) 
kits and USD 10 million in Tamiflu.  The press release received 
significant media play, particularly in the print media. 
The GOM through the Embassy of Mexico in Washington provided the USG 
with an updated list of requested supplies.   The list includes 
alcoholic gel, goggles, latex and surgical gloves; ventilators 
liquid soap, syringes. 
 
BASSETT