VZCZCXRO4889
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1229/01 1221837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021837Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6351
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2552

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001229 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, 
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS 
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES) 
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER) 
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA 
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 8 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: 
--------------- 
 
At a press conference on May 1, Secretary of Health Cordova 
announced that the GOM has confirmed 358 cases of H1N1 and 15 
deaths.  The GOM will process 500 additional cases in its labs 
today.  Embassy Mexico will be open for normal business on May 6, 
but has suspended non-emergency public services until May 11. 
 
 
¶2.  (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS: 
------------------------------------------- 
 
-- President Calderon and Foreign Affairs Secretary Espinosa 
personally received an airplane from China with medical supplies 
valued in USD 5 million. 
 
--The Inter-American Development Bank announced that it will lend 
Mexico USD 3 billion to cushion the economy from the impact of the 
H1N1 Influenza outbreak.  The peso appreciated .5 percent to 13.77 
at this news. 
 
 
¶3.  (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS: 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
Nothing new to report. 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) STATISTICS: 
--------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: 
At a press conference on May 1, the Secretary of Health announced 
that the GOM has confirmed 358 cases of H1N1 and 15 deaths.  Of the 
15 dead: 
--11 were in the Federal District, 2 in the State of Mexico; one in 
Oaxaca and one in Tlaxcala; 
--11 were female and 4 were male; 
--9 0f the 15 were between 15 and 40 years old. 
 
The GOM will process 500 additional cases in its labs today. 
 
The families of 86 confirmed H1N1 victims have been visited by 
doctors. 
 
The government has distributed 36,000 doses of Osetamivir, 11,000 in 
the Federal District. 
 
 
STATE GOVERNMENT: 
 
NOTE:  Below is based on press reports and represents best available 
data at this time on distribution of cases among states. 
Discrepancies exist between state and federal data. 
 
KEY: Column one - probable cases; Column 2 - cases with atypical 
pneumonia; Column 3 - deaths reported by state governments; Column 4 
- deaths reported by federal government; ND - no data. 
 
 
Auguascalientes  81, 43, 3, 0 
Baja     6,  0, 0, 3 
Baja sur     0,  0, 0, ND 
Campeche     1,  0, 0, ND 
Chiapas     0,  0, 0, ND 
Chihuahua    3,  0, 0, ND 
Coahuila   37,  0, 0, ND 
Colima    0,  1, 0, ND 
D.F.       115, 89,28, 51 
Durango    25,  0, 0, ND 
EDOMEX   64, 76, 9, 16 
Guanajuato  14,  0, 0, ND 
Guerrero    19, 14, 1, ND 
Hidalgo       188, 32, 0, ND 
Jalisco    40,  0, 0, ND 
Michoacan   83, 29, 0,  1 
 
MEXICO 00001229  002 OF 005 
 
 
Morelos    20,  4, 0, ND 
Nayarit    11,  0, 0, ND 
Nuevo Leon  37,  0, 1, ND 
Oaxaca    70,  1, 1,  2 
Puebla    74,  7, 0, ND 
Queretaro   76,  5, 0,  1 
Quintana Roo   14,  2, 1, ND 
San Luis Potosi    121, 14, 14,14 
Sinaloa     0,  0, 0, ND 
Sonora     0,  0, 0, ND 
Tabasco    54,  0, 0, ND 
Tampaulipas   11, 37, 1,  1 
Tlaxcala       390, 43, 0, ND 
Veracruz    69,  1, 0, ND 
Yucatan       124,  0, 0, ND 
Zacatecas   12,  0, 0, ND 
 
Total      1763  398 59 92 
 
 
¶5.  (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES: 
-------------------------- 
 
To date, Embassy Mexico has tested 12 staff or EFMs for H1N1 
influenza with one text showing a probable case.  Seven staff or 
EFMs have been treated with antiviral medication.  The health unit 
reports a slight increase in the number of patients coming for 
treatment.  Patients coming to the health unit have been mildly ill. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) SECURITY ISSUES: 
------------------------ 
 
Nothing new to report. 
 
 
¶7.  (U) CONSULAR ISSUES: 
------------------------ 
 
The Embassy will be open for normal business May 6, but 
non-emergency public services will remain closed  until May 11. 
 
Embassy Mexico will activate a call center if Embassy Mexico 
switchboard operators receive more than 1,000 calls per day. 
However, call numbers appear to be declining.  We received roughly 
110 calls within the past 24 hours.  Consulates report a low level 
of H1N1 related calls. 
 
Merida:  Post released an updated Warden Message on April 30.  Post 
assisted one USC who is hospitalized in Cancun with suspect 
symptoms.  The hospital diagnosed him with pneumonia but his hotel 
has refused to readmit him until he presents test results showing he 
is free of H1N1 influenza.  The test results are expected by 
tomorrow morning.  (more details by separate e-mail to CONS and 
CA/OCS) 
 
Monterrey:  Post distributed an updated Warden Message on April 30. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (U) CONSULATE ISSUES: 
------------------------- 
 
CIUDAD JUAREZ:  According to the Chihuahua Secretary of Health there 
are now 7 possible cases in Chihuahua and 8 in El Paso. 
 
GUADALAJARA:  State of Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez Marquez 
announced that state officials would establish checkpoints for 
sanitary control on the 5 federal highways and 18 state roads 
linking Jalisco with neighboring states.  These checkpoints would 
begin on May 1 and be in effect for an undetermined time. State 
education officials are considering whether schools should remain 
closed through May 11.  No decision has yet been announced. 
 
While public offices are closed, many businesses remain open, 
including stores and restaurants, as well as the public spaces used 
 
MEXICO 00001229  003 OF 005 
 
 
for "tianguis" or open air markets.  The National Chamber of 
Commerce of Guadalajara (Canaco) reported that since the beginning 
of the epidemic, the metropolitian zone of Guadalajara has lost an 
estimated 600 million pesos, or a drop of 60% of total member sales. 
 The agriculture secretary announced that in Jalisco some 250 
thousand pigs that should have been sold to producers remain unsold 
because of a drop in demand for pork.  Jalisco has 1200 pork 
producers that account for 30 thousand jobs. 
 
HERMOSILLO:  No new cases of H1N1 have been reported in the 
Hermosillo consular district.  One possible case tested negative. 
The Arizona ports of entry are reporting moderate traffic, not 
inconsistent with an average holiday weekend.  Duty officer received 
no calls about the H1N1 influenza over the past 24 hours. 
 
MERIDA:  There are no confirmed case of H1N1 in Yucatan or Campeche. 
There are reports of 2 positive cases of Influenza A in Quintana Roo 
but the cases have not been confirmed positive for H1N1. 
In Yucatan, the State has instituted daily press briefings and will 
increase public outreach.  The Secretary of Health noted that there 
are sufficient vaccines for the population but that pharmacies 
require a prescription to avoid panic buying leading to depletion of 
supplies.  Local press is starting to focus more on the economic 
impact to the tourism sector, particularly in Cancun and the Riviera 
Maya. 
 
MONTERREY:  Campaign rallies for the Nuevo Leon gubernatorial race 
have been postponed, and the campaigns for federal Congressional 
seats may be postponed as well.  The San Luis Potosi government 
closed nightclubs, restaurants, bars and health clubs, and is 
disinfecting public buses.   The San Luis Potosi public and private 
hospitals have supplies of anti-viral medication.  In Coahuila, the 
government is distributing 500,000 face masks, and Tamiflu is also 
available.  Media reporting continues to be straightforward on the 
number of suspected cases, the government's request to close 
non-essential businesses and the reaction of business leaders. 
 
In Nuevo Leon, many employers have closed administrative offices, 
but production lines continue operating.  In SLP, the secretary of 
economy agreed that it is not feasible to close many businesses, and 
suggested that the private sector take steps (washing hands etc) to 
prevent spreading the flu.  In Durango the large employers 
association Canicintra only agreed to close May 1, although 6,000 
non essential Durango government employees are off until May 6.  In 
Coahuila and Zacatecas the governments recommended postponing 
parties at restaurants, hotels and closing bars and bullfights, but 
it was not clear if those recommendations are being followed. 
Traffic was light but supermarkets remained open and well stocked. 
 
 
NUEVO LAREDO:  The public is calm and some citizens  continue to 
wear face masks.  Local media reports 9 suspected cases of H1N1 in 
Nuevo Laredo but still no confirmed cases.  The consulate received 
two calls from prospective applicants inquiring when the Consulate 
will resume services to the public.  Restaurants and grocery stores 
remain open to the public. 
 
TIJUANA:  Baja California and Baja California Sur continue to report 
there are no confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza.  Baja California 
state health officials are reporting that there are ten hospitalized 
patients with symptoms of H1N1 flu.  Three of the patients are 
showing improvement and the other seven are in stable condition. 
Twelve samples have been sent to Mexico City for testing.  The 
Catholic Church announced the suspension of mass for all churches in 
Tijuana Archdiocese but all scheduled events (baptisms and weddings) 
would continue. 
The San Ysidro and Otay Mesa Ports of Entry are reporting lighter 
than expected border crossings for a holiday weekend.  Baja 
California has begun monitoring all entry points--land border 
crossings, ports, and highways (airport monitoring had already been 
implemented) to try to minimize the entry of infected persons.  The 
Consulate received two calls related to the flu from travelers 
concerned that airports would be closed or they would not be allowed 
to return. 
 
 
¶9.  (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS: 
 
MEXICO 00001229  004 OF 005 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
May 1 coverage f the H1N1 influenza in the Mexican press focused on 
the increase in the number of reported cases.  According to Health 
Secretary Cordova there are 358 confirmed cases and 15 deaths from 
the H1N1 virus in Mexico. In a press conference Secretary Cordova 
stated, "It is important to highlight that the government's plan is 
working... and that it has allowed us to keep this situation within 
controllable levels." The Secretary also pointed out that Mexico has 
collaborated closely with U.S. and Canadian health authorities as 
well as the WHO. A radio newscast from Radio Imagen reported that 
the U.S. installed a laboratory in Mexico where a group of 
scientists can diagnose the H1N1 virus, and that 11 more scientists 
from the CDC will travel to Mexico to train local personnel. 
 
Newspaper Excelsior's front page story recounts how Mexico City 
residents are facing discrimination in other states and how Mexicans 
have faced the same in other countries for fear of the disease. 
There are also reports that there are 8 new confirmed cases in 
Europe. Also prominent in the media is the story that a member of 
President Obama's advance team that came to Mexico was showing 
symptoms of possible H1N1 infection. 
 
Several outlets also mentioned the European Union's rejection of 
France's proposal to suspend flights to and from Mexico. Mexico's 
Secretary of Transport and Communications guaranteed that all 
transport services were guaranteed and that his agency is in contact 
with his counterparts from other nations to maintain the highest 
security and health standards in air travel. 
 
A poll by Consulta Mitofsky shows that 75% of Mexicans believe that 
the government has taken appropriate actions. Jose Carreno, former 
Washington correspondent for El Universal, stated in a Radio Formula 
newscast, "These figures show that the government's communication 
strategy has been effective." The same poll shows that 45% also 
believe the government is withholding information. Analysts point 
out that there has been a huge amount of rumors circulating the 
internet - including that the H1N1 was developed as a weapon, and 
that the outbreak is meant to help pharmaceutical companies. 
Reforma's Sergio Sarmiento wrote, "The capacity to create conspiracy 
theories is amazing... but speculation and deceit can be very 
dangerous for society." Excelsior's Jorge Fernandez Menendez added, 
"We must dismiss all these conspiracy theories because they also 
alter our perception of the reality and undermine institutional 
solutions and society's effort to cope with what is going on." 
 
 
¶10.  (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT 
------------------------ 
 
The Bank of Mexico, Ministry of Finance and a private Mexican bank 
predict that the Mexican economy will contract by between 4 and 5% 
in 2009 before the impact of the H1N1 flu outbreak is taken into 
account.  All agree that the emergency actions (the temporary 
closure of restaurants in Mexico City and the temporary suspension 
of non-essential activities in the public and private sectors 
throughout Mexico) may reduce the GDP by an additional .3 to .5%. 
 
 
According to the press, the Mexican Hotel Association reports hotels 
in Mexico City have an occupancy rate of between 8% and 10%, and 
that 90% of reservations for the long weekend have been cancelled. 
The industry expects to lose about 100,000 jobs as a result of the 
outbreak. 
 
Coparmex, a union that represents about 4.8 million workers, reports 
absenteeism has been between 1 and 3%.  Most of the employees on 
leave are parents who stayed home for childcare reasons. 
 
Many multinational companies, such as Pepsico, Dupont, IBM and 
Phillip Morris have implemented emergency plans.  Most of them are 
allowing employees to telecommute. 
 
 
¶11.  (U) TRANSPORTATION 
----------------------- 
 
 
MEXICO 00001229  005 OF 005 
 
 
The Mexican Secretary for Communications and Transportation and his 
U.S. counterpart, Secretary of Transportation LaHood, held a second 
conversation regarding the pandemic the morning of 1 May.  OST at 
USDOT will have details of the conversation. 
 
MASS TRANSIT:  Directors for civil protection at the Mexico City 
(STC) and Washington, DC (WMATA) subway systems spoke 1 May via 
Embassy conference call.  Discussion focused on exchange of pandemic 
plans, precautions in place in the STC system, and contingency 
measures to guarantee operations.  Mexico City ridership appears 
steady at 2-2.5 million riders per day (50% off normal) and 
screening is in place.  STC screeners found 3 "probable" influenza 
cases this week and referred them to hospitals.  STC officials do 
not know the final disposition of the referred cases.  Teams 
equipped with hand sanitizer rove the network cleaning passengers' 
hands.  For employees, a liberal leave policy is in place and 
absenteeism is approximately 30%.  The system's tripwire to 
reconsider reducing service is a new spike in flu cases.  Rather 
than full closure, the proposed response would restrict crowds in 
stations and volume on trains (a full train can hold 1,800 
passengers). 
 
AIR TRAVEL:  Outbound passenger screening is up and running at 
Mexico's major airports and is not delaying flight departures. 
Inbound load factors continue at low levels while outbound flights 
are well-sold for now.  With few passengers arriving, foreign 
nationals in Mexico advancing their departures, and few Mexican 
nationals traveling abroad, a pass through effect should kick in 
within a week, resulting in reduced outbound passenger loads. 
Continental became the first U.S. airline to announce it would cut 
capacity on Mexico routes, by culling flights by its 50-passenger 
Embraer regional jets.  The move brings capacity in line with demand 
and does not come unexpected.  Continental operates the most 
extensive U.S. network in Mexico.  Other U.S. airlines may also 
reduce flight frequency, but intend to maintain ample service.  As a 
basis against which to measure cuts, the standard daily flight count 
between the U.S. and Mexico approaches 300 flights in each 
direction. 
 
¶12. (U) US ASSISTANCE 
--------------------- 
 
USG response to date includes: 
--the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has deployed 17 technical 
experts to Mexico to date who are working with their counterparts 
and international experts to investigate and prevent the spread of 
influenza and to consult with Mexico on community mitigation 
strategies; (We expect more CDC experts to arrive over the coming 
days) 
--USAID has donated $5 million to the World Health Organization and 
the Pan American Health Organization; 
--the Department of Health and Human Services provided 400,000 
courses of Tamiflu; 
--the Department of Agriculture has provided technical assistance 
for animal testing. 
--Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) has approved the 
shipment of 100,000 personal protection kits (PPE) similar to the 
Northcom January 2009 donation.   The value of the PPEs themselves 
is $875,000 and the airfreight is $100,000, or a total value of 
$975,000.  The PPE shipment is scheduled to arrive may 2.  OFDA and 
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have coordinated delivery and 
customs clearance. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) US ASSISTANCE CONTINUED 
----------------------------------- 
 
The HHS donation of 400,000 courses of Tamiflu was delivered to GOM 
officials on May 1.  Embassy Mexico did not publicly announce the 
donation at the request of Los Pinos, the Mexican NSC equivalent. 
 
BASSETT