VZCZCXRO4565
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1226/01 1211931
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011931Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6331
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2532

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MEXICO 001226 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, 
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS 
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES) 
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER) 
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA 
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 7 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: 
--------------- 
 
April 30 GOM estimates of confirmed H1N1 cases and deaths rose to 
260 cases, including 12 deaths. On April 30, the Embassy issued an 
updated warden statement and announced that Mission operations will 
be closed on May 4, 2009. This closure complies with the GOM's 
decision to close its non-emergency operations in government 
offices. 
 
¶2.  (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS: 
------------------------------------------- 
 
FEDERAL GOVERNEMENT: 
 
-- At a press conference on Aril 30, Secretary of Health Cordova 
announced that the GOM will now have six labs running tests in 
Mexico City, Veracruz, and Acapulco. 
-- There are currently no plans to postpone elections, however, the 
GOM postponed electoral training activities and recommended 
political parties to prevent large crowds during political 
campaigns. 
 
 
-- In response to the GOM's April 29 request for assistance, the 
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced the donation 
of 4M doses (400K courses) of Tamiflu to arrive in Mexico Mary 1, 
¶2009.  Moreover, on April 29 the US Embassy announced assistance of 
USD 5 million to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan 
American Health Organization (PAHO) to support Mexico's efforts to 
contain the spread of the H1N1 Influenza in Mexico.  The funds will 
provide equipment and supplies that will facilitate the diagnosis 
and treatment of people suffering from the disease. In addition, 
USAID/OFDA is currently preparing 100,000 personal protective 
equipment kits (PPE kits) to deliver to healthcare workers in 
Mexico. 
 
 
MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: 
 
On April 30, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said that there had 
been a reduction of the number of influenza cases reported, but 
encouraged everyone to continue following precautionary measures. 
He also said that his administration and that of other state 
governments need to channel resources towards equipment and 
improvements in health and medical facilities. 
 
 
¶3.  (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS: 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
Nothing new to report. 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) STATISTICS: 
--------------------- 
 
-- At a press conference on April 30, the Secretary of Health 
Cordova said the number of new H1N1 flu cases was stabilizing. 
Cordova says he hopes that trend will continue and that a vaccine 
will be available in six months. 
 
-- Cordova confirmed a total of 260 H1N1 flu cases, including 12 
deaths. He said he will no longer give figures on possible/suspect 
cases to avoid confusion.  He explained that the increase in the 
number of deaths did not mean more people died in the past 24 hours, 
but that authorities have been able to confirm more cases through 
the lab tests.  Note:  We continue to have problems obtaining 
consistent government statistical data. End Note. 
 
--Hospital capacity/occupancy remains at an estimated 70%. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES: 
-------------------------- 
 
 
MEXICO 00001226  002 OF 006 
 
 
-- Operation of the Embassy's call center (with 3 phones and 3 
computers) began on April 30. Callers can either dial direct or 
access the center through the main embassy greeting (press 1 for 
influenza info, then press 0 to speak to a call center staffer). 
 
-- Mission operations will be closed on May 4, 2009. This closure 
complies with the GOM's decision to close its non-emergency 
operations in government offices.   Tuesday, May 5, 2009 is also a 
national holiday. Mission Mexico operations will resume on 
Wednesday, May 6, 2009. 
 
-- Post continues to encourage the use of liberal leave for any 
personal concerns related to the flu. 
 
-- Embassy is denying all TDY travel except those responding to the 
H1N1 flu outbreak and TDYs that are deemed absolutely mission 
essential.  This includes the retraction of country clearances 
already granted. 
 
 
¶6.  (U) SECURITY ISSUES: 
------------------------ 
 
-- A warden check was conducted on April 29 with an 80 percent 
response rate (within 2 hours of initial contact).  A radio check is 
planned for the weekend. 
 
-- Embassy convened an EAC and virtual town hall with 300 
participants on April 30.  The next EAC meeting is scheduled for 
Wednesday, May 6, 0900 local time. 
 
 
¶7.  (U) CONSULAR ISSUES: 
------------------------ 
 
-- U.S. EMBASSY:  The Embassy issued an updated warden message April 
30, the sixth in seven days.  The message refers to the latest 
information regarding H1N1 Influenza A   and alerts Amcits to the 
enhanced health screening for all international passengers departing 
Mexico from Mexico City (Benito Juarez), Guadalajara, Monterrey, 
Cancun, Cabo San Lucas, and Puerto Vallarta airports.  Passengers 
with high temperatures or testing positive for the H1N1 virus will 
be denied boarding. 
 
-- NIV appointments have been suspended through the end of next week 
(May 8). 
 
-- The Embassy call center received over 400 H1N1-flu related calls 
on April 30, less than the previous day. 
 
-- PEACE CORPS:  Peace Corps (PC) Mexico currently has 57 volunteers 
in Mexico, all of which were put on a "standfast" status April 29. 
(Note:  Standfast in the PC Emergency Action Plan means that 
volunteers must stay near their sites, with no incidental travel 
away from their home of work sites.)  PC volunteers have been kept 
fully informed of all Embassy, WHO, and GOM communiqus.  All 
volunteers have been contacted by both cell phones and email and are 
required to check in daily with PC headquarters in Queretaro for any 
further instructions.  Volunteers are advised not to take public 
transportation or stay in crowded venues. 
 
-- CONSULATE, CIUDAD JUAREZ: Consular employees contacted applicants 
impacted by the suspension in services to notify them that immigrant 
visa (IV) interviews are suspended until May 8.  All other consular 
operations at the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez report no 
other significant change in operations since the April 29 SitRep. 
IV operations will now be suspended through May 15.  The National 
Visa Center is notifying applicants scheduled the May 11 through May 
¶15. 
-- CONSULATE, GUADALAJARA: ACS handled approximately 25 cases today. 
The Visa Section handled three emergency cases. 
 
 
 
-- CONSULATE, NOGALES:  The consulate has not received any calls 
regarding the flu outbreak in the past three days.  Visa services 
are suspended until May 8th.  ACS services continue with limited 
 
MEXICO 00001226  003 OF 006 
 
 
service for emergencies and will accept passport/CRBA applications. 
Employee absenteeism continues within normal limits.  A meeting of 
the local Integrated Emergency Management Group has been scheduled 
for Thursday May 7. 
 
-- U.S. CONSULATE, MERIDA:  There has not been a noticeable increase 
in the demand for American Citizen Services.  None of the Consulate 
staff to date has exercised the liberal sick leave policy.   Staff 
and EFMs remain calm. The Consulate held another town hall meeting 
today to pass information on the H1N1 virus and provide guidance 
should a staff member fall ill over the weekend. The Consulate will 
also perform a test on the mission phone tree tonight to prepare for 
any contingencies over the long weekend. 
 
-- U.S. CONSULATE, MONTERREY:  Post held a town hall meeting on 
April 29 to emphasize that H1N1 flu responds to treatment if prompt 
medical attention is sought.  American Citizen Services (ACS) has 
issued warden messages forwarded by Embassy, so now five warden 
messages have been sent to the local American community.  NIV 
received only a handful of phone calls and four e-mail inquiries 
about visas.  One emergency O1 visa renewal for a physician working 
in Texas was issued.  The Monterrey Applicant Services Center (ASC) 
is closed to the public but minimal staff are working. 
 
-- U.S. CONSULATE TIJUANA:  The suspension of non-essential consular 
services has been very smooth.  The call center was successful in 
re-programming all non-emergency NIV appointments without problems - 
no applicants came to the Consulate after Tuesday, and there were 
only 4 that day.  NIV has received only a few requests for emergency 
appointments and has processed only 5 visas.  Some passport and CRBA 
applicants have rescheduled, but most kept their appointments.  The 
number of public inquiries to the Consulate concerning suspension of 
services or general concern over the H1N1 flu situation have been 
surprisingly low, including very few from the families of our 
prisoners. 
 
 
¶8.  (U) BORDER AND CONSULATE ISSUES: 
----------------------------------- 
 
-- CIUDAD JUAREZ: Following the GOM's lead, Chihuahua State and 
Juarez Municipal governments will suspend all non-essential 
activities from May 1 to May 6.  In Ciudad Juarez, the Mayor's 
office told Post that the Municipal Police, Health Department, and 
the Department of Civil Protection will remain open.  These closures 
add to earlier announcements by State authorities that all public 
events, bars, nights, movies, gyms, and other large gatherings will 
be suspended until May 6. 
 
Poloff observed normal activity during visits on April 29 to 
hospitals and bus stations in Ciudad Juarez.  The medical personnel 
at the largest bus station in the city reported no cases of sick 
passengers.  Despite the municipal government's claim on April 29 
that 200,000 brochures were printed and being distributed, personnel 
at the hospitals and bus stations that poloff visited did not have 
brochures. 
 
CBP reports that passenger and vehicle traffic has not changed 
significantly since the H1N1 outbreak began.  (Passenger and vehicle 
traffic at international bridges in El Paso/Ciudad Juarez increased 
by less than 1 percent from April 19-21 to April 26-28.) The Juarez 
delegate to the National Chamber of Commerce (CANACO) estimates that 
the city's economy will lose approximately USD $ 115 million as a 
result of the business and event closures related to the H1N1 flu. 
According to the Maquiladora Association of Juarez (AMAC), 
manufacturing plants will offer temporary leave to employees with 
school-aged children due to the federal government's decision to 
close schools.  AMAC reports that the many of the city's 
manufacturing plants were already operating only three days a week 
due to the economic slowdown. 
 
 
-- GUADALAJARA:  Following suit from the national closures from May 
1-6, state and local officials have declared their closures until 
May 6.  RSO reports no significant incidents in the area and no 
"panic buying" as of yet. Public transit and airline flights 
continue to operate normally. As a result of the epidemic, the 
 
MEXICO 00001226  004 OF 006 
 
 
Jalisco Chamber of Bars and Restaurants estimates that their members 
have lost some $450 million pesos, and hotels are seeing their 
numbers drop by about 25%. 
 
-- NOGALES:  Public reaction remains the same throughout Nogales, 
that is to say, people appear calm and public use of masks is light. 
 CBP reports heavier than normal northbound traffic at both Nogales 
ports of entry.  CBP added that northbound traffic has been 
inconsistent in the last few weeks and they are not able to make the 
assertion that the heavier than normal traffic today is due to the 
current health situation. 
 
--MERIDA:  Cancun airport is installing 50 thermo-detectors to 
screen for fever in arriving and departing passengers.   Merida 
airport stated it has personnel with wireless thermometers to 
measure the temperatures of departing passengers.  The airport is 
still requiring all passengers to fill out a health questionnaire. 
In the Yucatan, local press is reporting a 70% drop in use of local 
transportation and 31% of hotel reservations in the state have been 
cancelled.  Local archeological sites and cinemas remain closed. 
The Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad is preparing one floor of 
the hospital in order to isolate any potential cases 
 
-- MONTERREY:  Campaign rallies for the candidates for Nuevo Leon 
Governor have been postponed, and it is possible that the campaigns 
for federal Congressional seats will be postponed as well.  The 
government in San Luis Potosi has closed nightclubs, restaurants, 
bars and health clubs, and they are disinfecting public buses.   In 
addition, the San Luis Potosi public and private hospitals have 
supplies of anti-flu medication.  In Coahuila, the government is 
distributing 500,000 face masks, and Tamiflu is also available. 
 
The PAN Mayor of the Monterrey suburb of Santa Catarina told the CG 
that the PAN Mayors throughout Mexico would meet on May 5, probably 
in Queretaro (but possibly in Zacatecas) to discuss their public 
message on the H1N1 crisis.  Zacatecas city mayor Cuahtemoc 
Calderon, the head of the PAN Mayors group (ANAC), would chair the 
meeting. 
 
Traffic remains very light in Nuevo Leon, and many post contacts are 
traveling to Texas for the long holiday weekend.  A number of public 
and private venues have closed voluntarily.  In San Luis Potosi 
(SLP), the situation appears to be under control, and despite the 
closing of public venues such as restaurants and bars, people seem 
calmer than before.  Church services have also been suspended.  Most 
people are staying home and many are wearing face masks. Some people 
plan to leave for the United States for the long holiday weekend. 
The SLP consular agency is informing the public that the border 
remains open but to expect possible delays.  The Monterrey Consulate 
and the SLP consular agency are both providing information about the 
CBP website on border wait times.  Meanwhile, in Durango, private 
businesses report that restaurant business has declined 15-60%. 
 
 
-- TIJUANA:  Government offices will close throughout our district 
in accordance with the ordered closures announced by the GOM. 
Prisons and state penitentiaries have suspended all visits with 
inmates until further notice.  No other closures have been ordered. 
Restaurants and shops remain open, but very empty.  Churches 
announced they will have services but will take measures to limit 
person to person contact.  Many newspapers included special inserts 
in today's editions on how to protect yourself from the flu. 
 
Border wait times continue to be very low.  CBP reports that they 
are passively screening individuals for possible illness. 
Unconfirmed media reports indicate that as many as 50 people were 
referred to secondary inspection yesterday due to concerns over 
possible illnesses. 
 
Shops and restaurants continue to see a slowdown in business with 
the exception of the sale facemasks, which are now becoming very 
scarce.  Several cruise ships originally scheduled to make stops in 
Ensenada and Cabo San Lucas were diverted away from our district and 
will now remain in the US.  Air travel in and out of the Tijuana 
airport continues as normal with virtually no cancelations. 
In-coming and out-going air travelers are being screened on a 
selective basis. 
 
MEXICO 00001226  005 OF 006 
 
 
 
 
--MATAMOROS:  All businesses appear to be closing on Monday. 
 
 
--NUEVO LAREDO:  There continues to be less-than-normal traffic 
going to the U.S. April 30 from Nuevo Laredo.  Restaurants continue 
to be open. There are only a few people on the streets in face masks 
and the public is calm. Post has had only one call about the flu 
since the H1N1 flu began. 
 
 
¶9.  (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS: 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
The Mexican media's coverage of the swine flu outbreak on April 30 
focused on the GOM's announcement to suspend all non-essential 
federal services from May 1 to 5. Reports highlighted that 
"production and availability of food, medicine and basic services is 
guaranteed." Headlines included, "Government, factories suspend 
labor for five days" (El Universal); "Holiday decreed" (Reforma); 
"Calderon says stay home" (Milenio); "Government suspends public 
services" (Excelsior). Media coverage also reported the raising of 
the WHO alert level to 5. Commentators pointed out that this "does 
not change the measures that Mexico is already taking and does not 
mean the virus is more dangerous, only that there are more cases 
around the world." 
 
Newspaper Reforma featured a poll that shows divided opinion among 
Mexicans. According to the poll, 49% of Mexicans said they fear 
contagion, while the other 50% said they were not concerned. Most 
media also featured reports that US legislators have asked the US 
Secretary of Homeland Security to consider closing the border with 
Mexico, and the negative response of President Obama to this 
petition. The media also reported on the installation of thermo 
scanners in the Mexico City airport and the suspension of visa 
appointments in the U.S. Consulates in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. 
 
Also noteworthy was President Calderon's meeting with former Health 
secretaries to hear their views on how to go about the outbreak, and 
the statement by the Secretary of Finance who estimated Mexico's GDP 
will drop a further 0.5% due to the outbreak but assured that the 
GOM has enough resources under the Catastrophe Expenses Fund and the 
swap lines with the World Bank and the Inter American Development 
Bank. 
 
 
¶10.  (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT 
------------------------ 
 
FOOD SUPPLY:  Wal-Mart supermarkets, Mexico's largest supermarket 
chain, see no supply problems for the foreseeable future.  Apart 
from low stocks of cleaning alcohol, face masks and vitamin C, 
Wal-Mart does not foresee running out of any basic items.  If some 
brands do sell out (i.e. tuna), they have other brands available. 
Masks have been a problem, and their US parent store has ordered 
several million.  Wal-Mart Mexico's stores (Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, 
Bodega Aurrera, Superama, Suburbia) are showing a slight surge in 
sales, consistent with last week's pattern, particularly in higher 
income neighborhoods. 
 
Modest (i.e. not panicked) stockpiling by consumers is generalized, 
but more pronounced in higher income areas. There is also a general 
concern that many people are using credit cards to charge their 
groceries, bucking a previous trend towards cash.  Wal-Mart is also 
the owner of the largest restaurant chain in Mexico, VIPS.  Their 
restaurants in the DF are open for take-out only, and revenues are 
at 17% of their usual levels.  Restaurants in the rest of the 
country are running at 50%, with different states requiring 
different maximum occupancy rates.  Wal-Mart is fine with this for 
the moment and comfortable with the level of operations. 
 
The Central de Abasto, Mexico City's city-run central food 
distribution market has put out a press release announcing that it 
will "guarantee" the supply of food to the city.  The city says 
there has been no interruption of any food supply. 
 
 
MEXICO 00001226  006 OF 006 
 
 
 
¶11.  TRANSPORTATION 
-------------------- 
 
In a 30 April press conference, Secretary of Communications and 
Transportation Molinar Horcasitas emphasized the GOM's commitment to 
guarantee transportation service.  He noted that trucking companies 
are operating normally, but that passenger loads on public 
transportation, from minibuses to airplanes, have declined.  He 
stressed that the supply of food is not at risk.  The Secretary's 
comments track with our grasp of the transport situation.  The 
Secretary also noted he had talked by phone on 29 April with his 
counterparts in the U.S., UK, Spain, Italy, and France -- making 
special mention of the EU's decision not to suspend air traffic to 
Mexico. 
 
Both terminals at Mexico City International Airport (AICM) are 
screening outbound passengers as of 30 April, including thermometer 
readings for all.  The process is not at this point delaying 
departures.  AICM is beginning an information campaign to reinforce 
the message that the facility is open and functioning normally. 
Flight cancellations remain few in number.  Airports such as Cancun, 
dedicated more directly to tourist travel, are seeing a more 
pronounced slowdown.  The new measures implemented by the 
Secretariat of Communications and Transportation could spread to 
additional airports beyond the initial 6 once the logistics are 
mastered at the first sites, according to a contact at the 
Directorate General for Civil Aviation (DGAC, Mexico's FAA). 
 
Passenger volume on inbound flights from the U.S. is now very low. 
Load factors of 15-20% are common.  Outbound traffic remains brisk. 
Reservation centers are not/not recording large numbers of Mexican 
nationals leaving the country, apart from regular vacation travel 
booked well in advance.  Wide-body flights from Europe show very 
low, while outbound flights are full of European tourists, many of 
whom have advanced their departure dates. 
 
 
BASSETT