VZCZCXRO7533
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHRN
DE RUEHMR #0136/01 1261115
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061115Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MASERU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4136
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RUEHMR/AMEMBASSY MASERU 4563

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000136 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV LT
SUBJECT: LESOTHO: MURMURS OF AN IMMINENT CABINET RESHUFFLE 
 
REF: A) MASERU 116  B) MASERU 113  C) MASERU 25  D) 2008 MASERU 336 
 
MASERU 00000136  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. The tranquility that Lesotho politicians enjoyed in recent 
months was marred by violence on April 22, when attacks on the 
Prime Minister's official residence and on military barracks 
were carried out by gunmen (refs A and B).  These attacks have 
come amidst growing speculation in the local media that a major 
cabinet reshuffle is in the offing.  Embassy sources have 
indicated that there is a strong possibility of a reshuffle 
within the next fourteen days. 
 
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Possible changes 
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¶2. Well placed sources within the governing Lesotho Congress for 
Democracy (LCD) informed the Embassy in confidence that the 
following ministers may lose their cabinet portfolios:  Minister 
of Sports and Recreation, Gender and Youth Affairs, `Mathabiso 
Lepono; Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Lesole 
Mokoma; Minister of Employment and Labor, Refiloe Masemene; and 
the Minister of Public Works and Transport, T'sele Chakela.  The 
sources also expect the Ministry of Sports and Recreation, 
Gender and Youth affairs to be split into two ministries:  The 
Ministry of Sports and Recreation (MSR), and the Ministry of 
Gender and Youth Affairs (MGY).  Tseliso Khomari (currently a 
Senator and president of the USG alumni association) would be 
appointed Minister of the MSR and Keketso Rantso (currently a 
National Assembly representative) would be appointed Minister of 
the MGY. 
 
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Dij` vu all over again 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. In its September 25, 2008, issue, the Lesotho Monitor, a 
local newspaper, published rumors of an imminent Cabinet 
reshuffle, reflecting reported tensions within the governing LCD 
party.  Though that predicted Cabinet shake-up did not 
materialize, highly-placed sources within the LCD are still 
convinced that a reshuffle is on the horizon. 
 
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Uncertain times for party leaders 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. The party is reported to be polarized, with one faction, 
which includes the youth league, reported to be pro-Monyane 
Moleleki, currently Minister of Natural Resources.  The other 
faction is the pro-Mosisili faction and is reported to have the 
support of most Cabinet members, including particularly the 
Minister of Communications, Science and Technology, Mothojoa 
Metsing, who is also the newly elected Secretary General of the 
LCD.  The Mosisili faction is also alleged to have the full 
support of former Secretary General and Minister of Trade and 
Industry, Mpho Malie, who resigned from the cabinet before the 
2007 general elections and also stepped down as Secretary 
General of the party in January 2009, prior to the LCD National 
Executive Committee (NEC) elections. According to local 
analysts,  Malie is credited with engineering the outcome of the 
afore-mentioned NEC in an endeavor to remove Moleleki from the 
NEC post he has held for over fifteen years (ref C). 
 
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What does the Moleleki group want? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. The Moleleki faction allegedly wants a clear succession plan 
and wants to see the Prime Minister, who is on his third term, 
leave office even though the Constitution allows him to seek 
more terms.  According to Embassy sources, Moleleki's camp 
argues that a leader who stays in power for too long becomes 
susceptible to despotic tendencies and ends up eliminating the 
competition, thus stifling the development of potential future 
party leaders.  At the LCD policy conference, held in September 
2008, Prime Minister Mosisili pointedly warned that party 
members who undermine both party protocols and the authority of 
the National Executive Committee (NEC) by campaigning in the 
constituencies using official transport without authorization, 
and by contradicting and challenging decisions, directives, and 
administration of the NEC, would be removed from office 
immediately.  The audience reacted by shouting Moleleki's name. 
On October 5, 2008, the LCD NEC subsequently fired the entire 
Youth League leadership, which was accused of being aligned with 
Moleleki's faction.  New members are likely to be elected as 
soon as all the constituencies have been consulted. 
 
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MASERU 00000136  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Comment 
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¶6. It is too early to gauge the possibility of a major reshuffle 
or provide a prognosis on potential political developments over 
the next few months.  One thing is clear, there is tension 
within the governing party.  However, as some observers point 
out, the governing party does not want to `wash its dirty linen 
in public'.  It will be interesting to see if indeed a reshuffle 
takes place and what it means for the future of the governing 
party.  The recent attempted assassination of the Prime Minister 
has spurred a feeding frenzy of speculation, including these 
renewed rumors of a cabinet reshuffle and a wealth of prophesies 
and conspiracy theories about who might want to destabilize the 
government or unseat the current Prime Minister.  Post has 
addressed several of these theories septel. 
NOLAN