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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
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R 070822Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0285
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0387
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 000559 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL OTRA OVIP ECON ETRD EINV KPKO EAID
MZ 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR GEN WILLIAM "KIP" WARD'S VISIT TO 
MOZAMBIQUE 
 
¶1. (SBU) The Embassy warmly welcomes you to Mozambique, 
widely considered to be an exemplary post-conflict democratic 
success story in Africa. Following the recent visits of Major 
General Altshuler, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for 
African Affairs Theresa Whalen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of 
State for Africa Carol Thompson, Rear Admiral Loeffler and 
Ambassador Mary Yates, your presence in Mozambique will 
further accentuate the upswing in bilateral relations. Your 
engagement with senior members of the Government of 
Mozambique (GRM) will again underscore that the U.S. is the 
largest bilateral donor to Mozambique, one of only two 
countries in the world benefiting from President Bush's three 
major initiatives--the Millennium Challenge Corporation 
(MCC), the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief 
(PEPFAR), and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). The 
visit will also provide the opportunity to further USG 
interest in encouraging Mozambique to participate in regional 
peacekeeping operations. 
----------------------------- 
A Post-Conflict Success Story 
----------------------------- 
¶2. (U) Since the signing of the 1992 Rome Peace Accord which 
ended sixteen years of civil war, Mozambique has made 
significant progress as a young democracy and is rightfully 
considered a post-conflict success story. The Frelimo party 
led the independence struggle and has maintained political 
power since Portuguese colonial rule ended in 1975. 
Frelimo's military opponent during the subsequent civil war, 
Renamo, has been the main opposition party since the first 
elections in 1994. In December 2004 Mozambique held its third 
presidential and legislative elections. Armando Guebuza won 
the presidency by a wide margin, defeating Renamo leader 
Afonso Dhlakama (who also ran unsuccessfully in 1994 and 
1999).  Since 2004, Renamo has become increasingly 
marginalized, as Frelimo continues to consolidate its already 
strong influence in the country. 
--------------------------------------- 
A Democratic Example, But Still Fragile 
--------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) Voter turnout in the December 2004 presidential and 
legislative elections was approximately 45 percent, down 
substantially from the 75 percent turnout in 1999. Although 
slightly fewer Frelimo voters cast their ballots than did so 
in 1999, about half of the Renamo supporters did not vote. 
Some analysts suggest Renamo supporters may have felt cheated 
in the very close 1999 election and cynically saw little 
point in participating. International observer groups 
monitored the elections and indicated that the elections were 
carried out in a generally successful and peaceful manner but 
noted there were irregularities in the administration of the 
elections. All agreed, nonetheless, that final results 
broadly reflected the will of voters. 
¶4. (SBU) In the December 2004 legislative election Frelimo 
won 160 out of 250 seats in the National Assembly, just seven 
short of a two-thirds majority. Renamo won 84 seats and an 
allied coalition of small parties took the remaining six. 
Since 2005 several of these small parties have distanced 
themselves from Renamo. Renamo's unexpectedly poor showing 
has led to disarray within the party and Dhlakama's 
leadership has been called into question. This has weakened 
any organized opposition to Frelimo, now in power for more 
than thirty years. 
¶5. (SBU) Local elections were held November 19, 2008 in all 
43 municipalities; in 2009, the country will hold its fourth 
national elections. Renamo failed to re-nominate popular 
Beira mayor Daviz Simango, allegedly due to his success and 
potential as a threat to wrest control of Renamo from 
Dhlakama. Simango ran and won as the only remaining 
independent mayor in the country, while Renamo lost further 
ground.  In early 2009 Simango launched a new national 
independent party, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique 
(MDM) which will contest the 2009 national elections.  As 
Frelimo gains further control over the democratic space in 
Mozambique, the GRM appears to be more willing to constrain 
press freedom and other human rights, which is worrying given 
the fragile state of opposition politics and civil society in 
the country. 
-------------------------------- 
Responsible Economic Stewardship 
-------------------------------- 
¶6. (U) Since the mid 1980s, the government has broadly 
followed IMF and World Bank guidelines on economic issues. 
Mozambique's macroeconomic reforms and success in attracting 
large investment projects have resulted in an average annual 
GDP growth rate of eight percent from 1994-2007, the highest 
in Africa over this time period. The 2008 growth rate is 
 
MAPUTO 00000559  002 OF 003 
 
 
lower, 6.5 percent due, in part, to the difficult world 
economic situation. Economic growth is from a very low base 
however, as per capita GDP for 2008 registered around USD 
¶375. Foreign direct investment, exports, and revenue 
collection all have increased significantly. U.S. investment 
in Mozambique has grown steadily, and in 2007 the U.S. was 
the largest foreign direct investor. Most of the state 
companies have been privatized, with only about one dozen 
remaining in government hands. 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Aid Community Voicing Concerns; USG Largest Donor 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶7. (U) The government receives approximately 50% of its 
budget directly from foreign aid and this trend is expected 
to continue despite recent complaints by European donors 
about the state of democracy, particularly governance and 
corruption issues. As the line between Frelimo and the 
government continues to blur, the group of donor nations 
expressed concern in 2008 that many democracy indicators have 
not been met. As a result, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark 
announced a restructuring of their foreign assistance which 
appears to reduce the amount of aid provided to Mozambique. 
The USG is the largest bilateral donor in the country with 
USD 325 million. In particular, our USD 216 million in PEPFAR 
funds in 2008 total more than the HIV/AIDS funds committed by 
all other donors and the Mozambican government combined. 
Although the USG does not provide direct budget support, we 
have forgiven all of Mozambique's USD 151 million debt as 
part of Mozambique's Highly Indebted Poor Countries relief 
initiative. 
------------------------------ 
PEPFAR, MCC, PMI: A Unique Mix 
------------------------------ 
¶8. (SBU) Mozambique is one of only two countries in the world 
to receive combined PEPFAR, MCC and PMI support from the USG. 
The MCC Compact signed in 2007 is on track for 
implementation. The five-year, $507 million Compact will 
reduce poverty through increased incomes and employment by 
improving water systems, sanitation, roads, land tenure, and 
agriculture, with a focus on the country's four northern 
provinces. Despite some frustration about the lengthy 
negotiation and implementation process, in July the MCC 
program began advertising tenders to bidders for several of 
its projects. 
----------------------- 
Zimbabwe and Madagascar 
----------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) The GRM has until recently been hesitant to 
criticize other African governments over human rights 
violations and historically has abstained from voting on any 
such resolutions. GRM officials have stated publicly that 
Mozambique, instead of criticizing actions, prefers to focus 
on what can be done to address such issues within regional 
institutions (e.g. the AU and SADC). Mozambique is the 
vice-chair of the Political and Defense Organ of SADC and GRM 
officials were quietly involved in the SADC mediation efforts 
in Zimbabwe. The 2009 coup in Madagascar; however, saw a 
rapid and public support for ousted Malagasy President Marc 
Ravalomanana from President Guebuza.  While senior GRM 
officials explained in the case of Zimbabwe that it was 
important for them to keep the channels of communication open 
with Mugabe, their strong stance on Madagascar may have 
arisen from growing concerns about stability in the region. 
--------------------------------------------- 
Peacekeeping Operations and Maritime Security 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) Mozambique's armed forces (FADM) have benefited 
from substantial USG military training and assistance, 
especially through the African Contingency Operations and 
Training Assistance (ACOTA) program. The FADM successfully 
participated in the African Union's 2005 peacekeeping 
operations in Burundi, and publicly expressed its interest in 
an increased level of contribution to peacekeeping 
operations.  The Embassy is working to assist FADM to develop 
its peacekeeping capacity and we look forward to supporting 
the GRM's eventual contribution to regional operations.  US 
Africa Command's Exercise Shared Accord will significantly 
assist the Embassy's effort. 
¶11. (SBU) Maritime safety and security is a significant 
concern in Mozambique because of its lengthy coastline and 
virtually ungoverned maritime spaces.  GRM recognized the 
impact on lost revenues and environmental degradation due to 
illegal fishing and organized a inter-ministerial working 
group to coordinate a governmental response to this 
situation.  The Mozambican Navy is the principal organization 
responsible for providing maritime safety and security, and 
 
MAPUTO 00000559  003 OF 003 
 
 
supporting this institution may help mitigate the threats of 
illegal trafficking, criminal activity, environmental loss, 
and illegal fishing.  The US Africa Command's FY09 Sec 1206 
proposal will considerably improve the capability of the Navy 
to perform this mission. 
Chapman