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INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LUXEMBOURG 000137 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON PREL LU
SUBJECT: JUNE 7 ELECTIONS: LUXEMBOURG'S LEADING POLITICIANS 
 
REF: A. LUXEMBOURG 128 
     ¶B. 08 LUXEMBOURG 3 
 
¶1.  Opinion polls show that Luxembourg's coalition government 
will be retained in the June 7 national elections (ref a). 
The dominant member of the coalition is the Christian Social 
People's Party (CSV), led by veteran political powerhouse and 
current Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker.  The junior 
partner in the sometimes awkward coalition is the Luxembourg 
Socialist Workers Party (LSAP), led by Deputy Prime Minister 
and Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn.  The Democratic Party 
(DP), Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR), and the 
Green Party all have seats in the Parliament but not in the 
Cabinet.  Following is a review of the key players in each of 
the major parties. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
CHRISTIAN SOCIAL PEOPLE'S PARTY (CSV) - LARGE AND IN CHARGE 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶2.  The Prime Minister: Jean-Claude Juncker, 56, has been 
Prime Minister since 1995 and Minister of Finance since 1989. 
 Juncker is the longest-serving head of government in the 
European Union and was recently elected to a third term as 
head of the Eurogroup (the 16-member club of all European 
nations employing the euro as the national currency).  Prior 
to the Irish "no" vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Juncker's name 
was championed as one of the leading candidates to serve as 
the European Union's first President (ref b).  Even prior to 
the Lisbon Treaty's partial demise, Juncker never publicly 
endorsed his own potential candidacy, regularly stating that 
he was primarily focused on his own country.  The possibility 
of Juncker's leaving Luxembourg for the EU's top job 
initially created anxiety within the CSV.  As the Lisbon 
ratification process has stalled, speculation about Juncker's 
eventual ascension seems to have vanished, and his prospects 
for that job are now considered slim.  The Prime Minister's 
ironclad grip on CSV leadership appears ensured and a 
succession fight appears delayed for another election cycle. 
 
¶3.  Juncker is the uncontested champion of national politics, 
enjoying approval ratings of over 90%.  He is one of the rare 
politicians from Luxembourg with international appeal. 
Juncker is considered a skilled and successful negotiator and 
an expert on EU financial issues.  He is the first permanent 
President of the Eurogroup, having served three consecutive 
terms, even though Eurogroup members originally agreed that 
the post was renewable only once.  Juncker may be tiring of 
the position, though, in part due to challenges to his 
leadership.  French President Sarkozy has repeatedly called 
for more individualized, national economic governance for 
Eurogroup members. Juncker has been involved in Luxembourg's 
national politics since 1982.  He previously headed his 
country's Ministries of Labor and Budget. 
 
¶4.  Luc Frieden:  Frieden, 46, is Luxembourg's Minister of 
Justice and Minister of Treasury and Budget.  He is widely 
perceived as Juncker's right-hand man and heir to the CSV 
leadership (and likely Prime Ministership).  Frieden lacks 
Juncker's charisma, but he is a respected technocrat who 
enjoys broad support within business circles, especially in 
Luxembourg's all-important financial services sector.  He 
enjoys high visibility and experience on the EU level, as a 
heavy dose of EU integration has fallen into his area of 
expertise, Justice and Home Affairs.  Frieden managed his 
party's sensational victory in Luxembourg Central District's 
2004 elections, previously considered a Democratic Party 
stronghold.  Frieden continually jockeys with Foreign 
Minister Asselborn for the coveted 
second-most-popular-politician-in-Luxembourg title (Juncker 
is considered untouchable).  The most recent polls, however, 
placed Frieden in third, a few percentage points behind 
Asselborn. 
 
¶5.  Francois Biltgen:  Biltgen, 51, is the president of the 
CSV Party and holds the top spot of three Ministries: 
Employment; Culture, Higher Education and Research; and 
Religious Communities.  Biltgen strongly advocates for 
traditional social and moral views, garnering significant 
popularity.  He represents the more conservative wing of the 
CSV.  Biltgen was once seen as a potential successor to 
Juncker, but has taken a couple of staggering hits over the 
years.  In 2001, he was diagnosed with cancer; his recovery 
forced him to reduce his political activities.  In 2006, his 
popularity took a major blow when he introduced legislation 
calling for a halt to unemployment benefits for graduating 
students who did not immediately find work, precipitating 
major demonstrations in front of his Labor Ministry and many 
calls for his resignation.  The legislation, however, 
eventually passed and entered into law. 
 
¶6.  Octavie Modert:  Modert, 36, was the first woman and 
youngest person ever to become the government's 
 
LUXEMBOURG 00000137  002 OF 004 
 
 
secretary-general, and used this position to earn her place 
as one of Juncker's closest advisors.  She currently holds 
the title of Secretary of State for Relations with 
Parliament, Agriculture-Viticulture, Rural 
Development-Culture, Higher Education and Research.  Modert 
is widely believed to have a promising political career in 
front of her. 
 
¶7.  Viviane Reding:  Reding is the current EU Commissioner 
for Information Society and Media.  Juncker has already 
announced that Reding, 58, will remain in her position as 
Luxembourg's EU Commissioner, provided the CSV remains the 
senior coalition partner following elections.  Reding enjoys 
high popularity in Luxembourg but is not considered a close 
friend or confidante of Juncker. 
 
¶8.  Claude Wiseler:  Wiseler, 49, formerly served as the 
CSV's secretary-general and currently serves as Minister for 
Public Works and Civil Service.  He participated in the U.S. 
International Visitor Program in 2003.  His portfolio limits 
his public profile, but he is considered a rising star in the 
CSV. 
 
¶9.  Marie-Josee Jacobs:  Jacobs, 59, is the Minister for 
Family, Integration, and Equal Opportunities.  She is the 
most popular politician from the mostly-rural northern sector 
of Luxembourg.  Heavily conservative, Jacobs is closely 
aligned with the politics of the Catholic Church.  Jacobs's 
position in government appears secure for as long as the CSV 
remains in power. 
 
¶10.  Michel Wolter:  Wolter previously served as Minister of 
the Interior and currently is head of the CSV parliamentary 
bloc.  Wolter, now 46, was first elected to Parliament at age 
21 - the youngest in Luxembourg's history - and was 
considered the CSV wunderkind.  Close to Juncker, Wolter was 
once thought to be a possible successor.  A poor showing in 
the 2004 elections, however, put an end to this speculation. 
Parliament's recent passage of controversial euthanasia 
legislation was a blow to his party credentials, as he led 
the CSV's opposition to the bill.  Wolter has expressed 
interest in the position of President of Parliament, but 
continues to be an underdog for the job. 
 
¶11.  Laurent Mosar:  Mosar is the leader of the CSV 
opposition within Luxembourg City's DP-led government.  He 
serves concurrently as Vice President of the Parliament and 
Chairman of Parliament's Financial Committee.  Mosar, 51, had 
a strong showing in 2004 elections and was offered a position 
in the government.  He instead chose to run for mayor of 
Luxembourg city, when the CSV lost to the Democratic Party. 
 
¶12.  Lucien Thiel:  Thiel, 66, currently serves in the 
Parliament and was previously president of the Luxembourg 
Banks and Bankers Association.  If Juncker were to cede his 
portfolio as Finance Minister, Thiel could find himself in 
the government, perhaps in a shared capacity with Minster 
Frieden for the Finance, Budget, and Treasury portfolios. 
 
¶13.  Jean-Louis Schiltz:  Schiltz, 45, is Minister of 
Defense, Minister for Development Cooperation and 
Humanitarian Affairs and Minister of Communications.  Schiltz 
joined the government to the surprise of many in 2004, as 
five higher vote getters were passed over.  Schiltz is the 
nephew of the Roman Catholic Vicar General of Luxembourg. 
Schiltz has recently been seen as a politician on the rise 
and is a possible competitor to Frieden as Juncker rides off 
into the sunset.  Critics claim that his management of the 
Cooperation Ministry is an empty and shallow resume-enhancer, 
with his work consisting simply of doling out money.  He is 
similarly criticized for his work as Defense Minister, with 
many claiming that the long-awaited army reform his Ministry 
oversees is simply implementing the hard work of his 
predecessor, Luc Frieden. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
THE SOCIALISTS (LSAP): LUXEMBOURG'S JUNIOR COALITION PARTNER 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶14.  Jean Asselborn:  Asselborn is Luxembourg's Deputy Prime 
Minister and the Minister for Foreign Affairs and 
Immigration.  Asselborn, 60, led the Socialist Party's 
renaissance in 2004 after five years in opposition.  While 
Asselborn is his country's top diplomat, he is not considered 
by many to be the most diplomatic.  His lack of finesse and 
subtlety, however, is compensated for by his stated vision of 
traditional Luxembourgish values, including the future 
welfare of society and solving the basic problems of common 
people.  Asselborn was previously mayor of the village of 
Steinfort (population of 5,000), succeeding to the position 
following his father's death.  Asselborn is ambitious.  Were 
his party to somehow score a major victory and assume the 
senior position of the next government, Asselborn would 
 
LUXEMBOURG 00000137  003 OF 004 
 
 
undoubtedly become Luxembourg's Prime Minister. 
 
¶15.  Jeannot Krecke:  Krecke, 59, is the Minister of Economy 
and Foreign Trade and the Minister of Sport.  Krecke 
represents the non-traditional wing of the Socialist Party, 
not linked to the trade union movement.  His free-market 
views put him closer in line with those of Juncker's than his 
party's.  Thus, Krecke does not enjoy the same support from 
the Socialists' historic stronghold in the industrial 
southern district of Luxembourg.  While considered a bit of 
an outsider within his own party, Krecke manages his 
relationship with party stalwarts very well, massaging his 
relationship with leader Asselborn well enough to remain at 
the top of the LSAP leaderboard. 
 
¶16.  Nicolas Schmit:  Schmit is the Delegate Foreign Minister 
for Foreign Affairs and Immigration.  Schmit, 56, is a career 
diplomat who served previously as Luxembourg Permanent 
Representative to the United Nations.  He developed a special 
relationship with Juncker while serving in Brussels at the 
European Union.  Foreign Minister Asselborn's lack of foreign 
policy experience led Juncker to create Schmit's current 
portfolio preceding Luxembourg's turn as EU President in 
¶2005.  Schmit is the only member of government without an 
electoral mandate. 
 
¶17.  Mars Di Bartolomeo:  Di Bartolomeo, 57, is Luxembourg's 
Minister of Health.  Di Bartolomeo has been active in LSAP 
politics since the 1970s and does not possess a university 
degree.  His popularity stems from his blunt and 
unconventional positions.  In the 2004 elections, he received 
the greatest number of votes for any Socialist, even greater 
than Asselborn. 
 
¶18.  Lucien Lux:  Lux is the Minister of Environment and 
Transport and began his political career by joining a trade 
union closely associated with the LSAP.  Lux, 53, managed the 
LSAP's 2004 electoral campaign, thus earning a lot of the 
credit for the Socialists' re-entry into government.  In his 
current capacity, Lux has spearheaded some unpopular reforms, 
such as raising the excise tax on fuel and increasing taxes 
on cars with high carbon dioxide emissions.  This 
unpopularity makes Lux one of the few members of government 
whose position is possibly in jeopardy during these 
elections.  Facing a possible electoral defeat, Lux has 
recently expressed interest in the directorship of the 
Luxembourg National Railway Company, where he worked at 
beginning of his career. 
 
¶19.  Alex Bodry:  Bodry, 51, is the president of the LSAP and 
formerly served as Luxembourg's Minister of Defense and 
Minister of Environment, Energy, and Communications.  Bodry 
is widely considered the Socialists' number-two leader behind 
Asselborn, often competing with Krecke for this status. 
Bodry chose not to join the government in 2004 to remain 
president of his party. 
 
¶20.  Lydia Mutsch:  Mutsch, 40, is a member of Parliament and 
mayor of Luxembourg's second-largest city, Esch-sur-Alzette. 
She is the first female mayor of Esch and is considered an 
up-and-comer in the LSAP.  Mutsch is lobbying hard for a 
position in government should her party remain a coalition 
partner. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP) - #1 IN THE OPPOSITION 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶21.  Claude Meisch:  Meisch, 38, is the leader of the 
opposition DP and is also mayor of Luxembourg's third-largest 
city, Differdange.  The DP staggered after losing five seats 
in the 2004 elections and Meisch has been charged with 
leading his party to a strong showing in these elections. 
The task is a tall order.  Meisch is considered by many to be 
too young to compete against major heavyweights.  The DP is 
also entering these elections without longtime party 
stalwarts and major vote getters Lydie Polfer, Charles 
Goerens, and Henri Grethen. 
 
¶22.  Xavier Bettel:  Bettel, 37, is a member of Parliament 
and deputy mayor of Luxembourg City.  Bettel is considered 
one of the DP's Young Turks.  As a lawyer, Bettel was known 
for taking on difficult cases, mainly representing refugees 
and immigrant detainees.  In Parliament, he has crafted a 
reputation of an "enfant terrible," frequently calling out 
Ministers with pointed parliamentary questions.  Bettel's 
status as one of the DP's rising stars has been somewhat 
hindered by his outspokenness.  Bettel is openly homosexual. 
 
¶23.  Paul Helminger:  Helminger, 69, is the mayor of 
Luxembourg City.  He is expected to retain his mayorship and 
draw some votes for the DP, but is not a major player in 
national politics. 
 
LUXEMBOURG 00000137  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
---------- 
THE GREENS 
---------- 
 
¶24.  Francois Bausch:  Bausch, 53, is the Green Party's 
leading political figure.  The Green Party won two seats in 
the 2004 elections, and the party was widely seen as on the 
rise.  The Greens, however, were hit hard by the financial 
crisis which has stalled their ascent.  Bausch has openly 
campaigned to be Luxembourg's first Green Foreign Minister - 
his party must win enough seats, however, to enter the 
coalition for that to happen. 
 
¶25.  Felix Braz:  Braz, 43, is one of Luxembourg's first 
successful politicians of Portuguese descent, a demographic 
strongly represented in Luxembourg.  Considered Bausch's 
right hand, Braz hopes to bring an additional seat or two to 
the Greens via his strong popularity in the country's 
southern district. 
 
¶26.  Manuel Huss:  Huss is a co-founder of Luxembourg's Green 
Party.  He is known for his strong opposition to the EU 
Constitutional Treaty of 2005, an effort that was put to a 
referendum and lost.  Huss, 62, was co-author of the 
controversial euthanasia legislation recently passed over CSV 
opposition - considered a major political victory for Huss 
and the Greens. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶27.  We do not expect any major shakeup to the governing 
coalition on June 7.  The CSV will almost undoubtedly remain 
the senior partner of a coalition with the Socialists. 
Juncker will remain as Prime Minister, extending his status 
as longest-tenured head of government in Europe. Some 
portfolios might be juggled, a few of the minor Cabinet 
ministries may change leaders, but, on the whole, the makeup 
of Luxembourg's next government does not look to change much 
from the status quo.  Some commentators have allowed for the 
possibility of each of the opposition parties gaining one or 
two seats.  If that happens, there is the slim possibility 
that the junior coalition partner could change.  While 
mathematically feasible, an outcome where all of the 
opposition parties unite to form a coalition and oust the CSV 
from power, is highly unlikely. 
WAGNER