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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0285/01 1490634
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290634Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0521
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0365
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1022
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000285 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR AF WATCHER PETER LORD 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI - DPP DOMINATES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: LILONGWE 44 
 
LILONGWE 00000285  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), riding 
the coattails of President Mutharika, won an overwhelming majority 
in the National Assembly in May 19 elections.  The DPP won 113 out 
of 192 seats and will likely reach a two-thirds majority as 
independents join the government.  The Malawi Congress Party (MCP) 
and United Democratic Front (UDF) both lost more than half of the 
seats they had won in 2004.  Overall, 76% of incumbent MPs lost 
their bids for reelection.  Independents, while fewer than in 2004, 
still captured 32 seats.  A campaign to increase female 
representation succeeded in nearly doubling the number of female 
legislators, who now make up 21% of the legislature.  Comment: While 
the large DPP majority will bring stability to the legislature, 
civil society is concerned about the risk of the National Assembly 
becoming a rubber stamp for government policies and bills.  End 
Summary 
 
SWEEPING VICTORY FOR DPP IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The DPP, riding the coattails of President Mutharika's 
presidential victory, won 113 seats out of 192 contested in the May 
19 election.  The opposition MCP and UDF won 27 and 17 seats, 
respectively, cutting their numbers in half from 2004.  The 
magnitude of the DPP victory was unexpected, as many analysts 
believed the MCP and UDF had more seasoned political machines at the 
grassroots level.  The UDF's showing was so poor that its share of 
Parliamentary seats fell below the 10% threshold required for state 
funding for political parties.  Two seats remain up for grabs due to 
a candidate's death and the election of Joyce Banda as 
Vice-President.  These seats will be filled through by-elections 
within 60 days. 
 
INDEPENDENTS FARE WELL 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Independent candidates, although capturing seven fewer 
seats than in 2004, outdistanced all opposition parties with 32 
seats.  Poorly run primaries in all major political parties led to 
41% of candidates running as independents (reftel).  Most of the 
winning independents were formerly members of the DPP and are likely 
to return to the party.  These prodigal MPs should push the DPP over 
the two-thirds supermajority the party would need to pass 
constitutional amendments. After the elections, President Mutharika 
acknowledged that the large number of "independent" DPP candidacies 
was a sign of poor intra-party democracy, and vowed to create 
governing structures for the DPP that are more transparent. 
 
ONLY ONE IN FOUR INCUMBENTS RETURN 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Incumbency was once again a disadvantage for parliamentary 
candidates, as voters returned only 26% of incumbents to the 
National Assembly.  In both the elections of 1999 and 2004, over 70% 
of incumbents lost as well.  Malawian voters' expectations of what 
their MPs can do for them directly are often unreasonably high.  The 
DPP's conquest of former MCP and UDF constituencies was also clearly 
a factor in this high turnover.  Some commentators have suggested 
that voters consciously decided to give President Mutharika the 
Parliamentary majority he lacked in his first term. 
 
BIG NAMES FALL 
-------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) A large number of senior government and opposition figures 
failed to win their Parliamentary seats.  Among the big names that 
lost were five cabinet ministers - Davies Katsonga (Labor), Clement 
Khembo (Disabled and Elderly), Ernest Malenga (Home Affairs), Ted 
Kalebe (Energy and Mines), Callista Chimombo (Tourism) - and twelve 
deputy ministers.  Foreign Minister Joyce Banda was reelected, but 
as the new Vice President, she will give up her seat in the National 
Assembly and her ministerial portfolio as well.  The entire national 
executive council of the UDF also lost, along with the MCP's 
Secretary General.  Despite MCP's other losses, John Tembo 
successfully held his seat in Dedza.  The rest of the presidential 
candidates who also ran for Parliament, including independent James 
Nyondo, were defeated.  While Tembo's running mate, Brown 
Mpinganjira, also lost his parliamentary election, former President 
Muluzi's son, Atupele, retained his seat.  With the UDF's losses, 
Atupele Muluzi, a Western-educated lawyer, becomes one of the 
highest profile UDF members in Parliament and potential future 
leader of the party. 
 
 
LILONGWE 00000285  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
CAMPAIGN HELPS INCREASE WOMEN IN PARLIAMENT 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) The number of female MPs increased to 42 as women now won 21% 
of National Assembly seats.  A "50/50 campaign" by civil society 
organizations around the country played a large part in the 
increase.  The campaign, aimed at achieving gender balance in the 
legislature, trained female candidates in how to campaign and 
provided funding without regard to political affiliation.  The 
"50/50 Campaign" was inspired by the Southern Africa Development 
Community (SADC) declaration in 2005 for 50/50 (male/female) 
representation in the sub-region's legislatures by the year 2020. 
Women candidates accounted for 20% of all parliamentary candidates 
in the election. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment:  The DPP's landslide victory will bring order and 
coherence to the previously fractious National Assembly, but civil 
society groups have already stated concerns that the DPP might use 
its majority to turn the National Assembly into a rubber stamp for 
President Mutharika's initiatives.  The loss of several GOM 
ministers from Parliament should not adversely affect U.S. 
cooperation with Malawi.  Key partners such as Minister of Finance 
Goodall Gondwe and Minister of Health Khumbo Kachali survived their 
Parliament races, although they may be reassigned to new portfolios 
in the new Cabinet. End Comment. 
 
BODDE