VZCZCXRO0211
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0274 1411640
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211640Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0508
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 1016
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE PRIORITY 0041
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0359
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000274 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR AF WATCHER PETER LORD 
ADDIS ABABA FOR AU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MUTHARIKA HEADED FOR BIG WIN 
 
REF: LILONGWE 273 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: As of 5pm on May 21, incumbent President 
Bingu wa Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 
had a comfortable lead in the presidential election.  The 
Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has certified 41 percent of 
the polling stations' results, with Mutharika surpassing 
Malawi Congress Party (MCP) President John Tembo almost two 
to one.  The National Democratic Institute (NDI) privately 
told US officials Thursday that their numbers show Mutharika 
with approximately 65 percent of the vote and Tembo 31 
percent.  The MEC hopes to finalize official results by late 
on May 21, just in time for the scheduled May 22 
inauguration.  Former President Muluzi publicly acknowledged 
Mutharika's victory, while Tembo is still equivocating.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) As of 5pm on May 21, incumbent President Bingu wa 
Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a 
comfortable lead in the presidential election.  The Malawi 
Electoral Commission (MEC) has certified 41 percent of the 
polling stations' results, with Mutharika surpassing Malawi 
Congress Party (MCP) President John Tembo almost two to one. 
The National Democratic Institute (NDI) privately told US 
officials Thursday that their numbers show Mutharika with 
approximately 65 percent of the vote and Tembo 31 percent. 
NDI is working with the Malawi Electoral Support Network 
(MESN) in a joint monitoring effort funded by the USG.  MESN 
will make a public announcement only after an official 
proclamation by the MEC, which is expected late on May 21 or 
the next morning.  Preliminary and anecdotal evidence 
indicate that Mutharika's DPP has also won a parliamentary 
majority. 
 
¶3. (U) Statements by foreign observer missions generally 
applauded the election, with SADC terming the polling 
"credible, peaceful and free." Along with SADC, the EU and 
Commonwealth observer teams also noted shortcomings, 
including the belated release of the voter rolls, media bias, 
and Mutharika's use of state resources.  The Commonwealth 
statement noted that key benchmarks for democratic elections 
were not fully met. 
 
¶4. (U) United Democratic Front (UDF) leader Bakili Muluzi, 
who joined Tembo in a last minute coalition, publicly 
acknowledged the win by President Mutharika and personally 
congratulated him.  Tembo later distanced himself from 
Muluzi's statement.  Tembo lodged a complaint with the MEC, 
claiming irregularities such as delivery of ballots in open 
envelopes.  However, he suggested that he would accept the 
results if the MEC addresses his complaints.  The MEC has not 
yet acted on Tembo's complaint. 
 
¶5. (U) COMMENT: Mutharika's margin of victory has surprised 
everyone, even the ruling party.  Mutharika made unexpected 
inroads into MCP's stronghold in the central region and also 
swept constituencies in the north.  Tembo's loss also spells 
the end of regional loyalties that have dominated Malawi's 
politics since the establishment of democracy in 1994.  The 
DPP's potentially sizable majority in Parliament will give it 
a free hand for the next five years. 
BODDE