VZCZCXRO3283
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0257/01 1331400
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131400Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0489
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0348
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000257 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI ELECTION OBSERVATION PLANS 
 
REF: LILONGWE 220 
 
LILONGWE 00000257  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Election observation for Malawi's May 19 
presidential and parliamentary elections will be robust.  The 
U.S. Mission will deploy 17 observation teams and will be 
joined by British High Commission, Canadian High Commission, 
German Technical Cooperation (GTZ), and Iceland International 
Development Agency (ICEIDA) observers.  The combined 
diplomatic missions will deploy 60 teams to 27 of Malawi's 28 
districts.  The European Union has deployed a full 
international mission of over 80 observers who will cover the 
entire country.  The African Union, Southern Africa 
Development Community (SADC), and SADC Parliamentary Forum 
will also field observer missions.  The Malawi Electoral 
Support Network (MESN), funded by a USAID grant through the 
National Democratic Institute, will provide local monitoring, 
as will the National Initiative for Civic Education (NICE), 
an EU-funded government of Malawi organization. 
Disenfranchisement due to voter roll errors, vote tabulation, 
and results management will all be key areas for observers 
and monitors to watch.  Comment:  The EU Mission's verdict 
will be important, but U.S.-funded MESN will likely provide 
the most accurate, comprehensive, and rapid report on the 
elections due to a statistically-based sample.  MESN's 
estimate of the actual result should add value to the 
qualitative assessments of other groups and counter any false 
claims by candidates and political parties. End Summary. 
 
U.S. Deployment Plan 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The U.S. Mission in Lilongwe will deploy 36 
accredited election observers to 13 of Malawi's 28 districts 
for the May 19 elections.  There will be 17 observer teams, 
each consisting of one American staff member and at least one 
locally engaged staff (LES) member.  Observers will monitor 
polling day activities including conduct at polling stations 
and vote tabulation at polling stations, constituency 
offices, and the Malawi Electoral Commission election 
headquarters.  The U.S. Mission is coordinating with the 
British High Commission, Canadian High Commission, GTZ, and 
ICEIDA who will also feed observation reports to the U.S. 
Embassy control center.  Combined, there will be 60 
diplomatic observer teams covering 27 districts. 
 
EU Mission Leads International Observers 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The European Union has sent a full observer mission to 
Malawi.  The EU Observer Mission (EOM) chief observer and six 
experts arrived on April 3.  Consisting of 28 long-term and 
20 short-term international observers, the EOM will also be 
joined by local diplomatic observers from the EU Mission to 
Malawi and other member states, bringing the total to 
approximately 80 participants.  The EOM will cover all 28 
districts in Malawi.  With a budget of over $3 million USD, 
the EOM expects to issue an initial statement within 48 hours 
of the polls closure on May 19.  The Southern Africa 
Development Community (SADC) and the African Union have also 
sent observer missions.  USAID's Southern Africa regional 
office is also funding an observer mission by the SADC 
Parliamentary Forum. 
 
Local Monitors Will Have National Coverage 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) In addition to political parties, NICE and MESN will 
perform local monitoring of the elections  NICE, which is 
wholly funded by the EU but formally a government of Malawi 
institution, will have monitors at every polling station. 
MESN, with funding from USAID through the National Democratic 
Institute (NDI), will deploy 800 local monitors to a 
statistically significant, random sample of polling stations 
throughout the country. 
 
Potential Problems 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) With well-documented problems with the initial 
voters roll (reftel) and a history of disputed election 
results, disenfranchisement, vote tabulation, and results 
management will be the key areas of observer interest. 
Although the Malawi Electoral Commission has manually 
inspected and corrected mistakes in the vast majority of 
voter registration applications, the political parties are 
still distrustful of the voter roll.  If even a small number 
of voters are turned away, the situation could quickly 
snowball into claims of wholesale disenfranchisement. 
 
LILONGWE 00000257  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Political parties also complained about inadequate security 
and transparency in the transport of ballots. 
 
EU, MESN Voices Should Have Impact 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: As the largest and best funded 
international observer mission, the EU will have significant 
clout and its initial statements will go a long way toward 
establishing the credibility of the election.  MESN will also 
be an important voice.  MESN's status as a well-known 
indigenous non-governmental organization may carry more 
weight with many Malawians than international observers, some 
of whom will have been in Malawi for less than a week on 
polling day, or NICE.  By using proven statistical methods 
and leveraging technical assistance from NDI, MESN should be 
able to add quantative assessments to the qualitative 
evaluations offered by other observers.  If all works to 
plan, USG-funded MESN will not only be able to verify the 
credibility of the final presidential results, but will also 
be able to provide numbers that tell the magnitude of 
specific election problems, hopefully countering any false 
claims by candidates or political parties. End Comment. 
BODDE