VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0436/01 1492036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 292036Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7679
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO 6020
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS KINGSTON 000436 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT PASS EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE FOR INFO 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX) 
(VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MCMANUS) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PARTIES NOMINATE CANDIDATES FOR JUNE 16 
BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: A. 07 KINGSTON 1336 
¶B. 07 KINGSTON 1389 
¶C. 08 KINGSTON 156 
¶D. 08 KINGSTON 245 
¶E. 08 KINGSTON 280 
¶F. 08 KINGSTON 310 
¶G. 08 KINGSTON 398 
¶H. 08 KINGSTON 1034 
¶I. 09 KINGSTON 221 
¶J. 09 KINGSTON 232 
 
Summary 
------ 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: On May 29, Jamaica's two major political parties 
announced their candidates to contest the June 16 by-election in the 
North East St. Catherine constituency.  The ruling Jamaica Labour 
Party (JLP) selected its incumbent Member of Parliament (MP), 
Desmond Gregory Mair, who earlier this month was declared to have 
been ineligible when originally nominated in 2007 due to his dual 
Jamaican/Venezuelan citizenship.  Mair has since renounced his 
Venezuelan citizenship.  The opposition People's National Party 
(PNP) nominated Granville Valentine, a trade unionist and party 
activist new to electoral politics.  Early indicators suggest that 
the JLP candidate should easily retain the seat, although how the 
electorate will react to Jamaica's continuing economic malaise and 
the government's budget cuts and public sector wage freezes may 
favor the PNP.  End Summary. 
 
Supreme Court Orders By-Election 
------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding announced the by-election 
following the Supreme Court's May 21 ruling that Mair had been 
ineligible for his party's nomination for the September 2007 general 
election because, at the time of his party nomination in August 
2007, he had held dual Jamaican/Venezuelan citizenship.  The 
election petition, filed by Phyllis Mitchell, Mair's 2007 PNP 
opponent, was one of four filed by defeated PNP candidates against 
their JLP opponents following the September 2007 general election 
that brought the JLP back to power after 18 years.  The ruling was 
consistent with the Court's judgment against JLP MP Daryl Vaz in 
February 2009 that forced a by-election in the West Portland 
constituency the following month (Reftel C).  Vaz had renounced his 
U.S. citizenship following the ruling, and won the by-election 
handily (Reftel J). 
 
¶3. (U) The Court's ruling was based on a joint agreement between 
Mair and Mitchell in which Mair admitted to holding a Venezuelan 
passport on which he had occasionally traveled.  Nevertheless, due 
to his dual Venezuelan/Jamaican citizenship, Mair agreed that he was 
not properly nominated on August 7, 2007 to contest the September 
2007 general election.  Section 42 of Jamaica's Constitution forbids 
anyone who has sworn allegiance to a foreign power, other than 
Commonwealth states, to contest a general election.  Mair 
immediately announced that he would be contesting the by-election, 
noting that he had renounced his Venezuelan citizenship shortly 
after being nominated in August 2007. 
¶4. (SBU) Two similar petitions remain undecided, although the 
Court's previous rulings seem to suggest that those cases will 
result in by-elections as well.  Were the PNP to win two or more of 
those races, the ruling JLP would lose its slender 31-28 majority in 
Parliament (Note: Due to the Court's ruling, Mair's seat is now 
vacant.  End Note) and PM Golding would probably be forced to call a 
snap general election.  However, Mair appears to be the favorite and 
even PNP sources suggest that they don't have much hope of 
recapturing the seat.  Historically, Jamaican by-elections usually 
result in the seat's return to the incumbent party; of the 36 
by-elections since 1944, only three have resulted in a loss by the 
incumbent party. 
Valentine 
--------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) On May 24, the PNP announced that their candidate for the 
seat would be Granville Valentine, a National Workers Union trade 
unionist and North East St. Catherine's local party constituency 
chairman.  Valentine gave his first speech as a candidate at the 
opening of the PNP's new constituency office in North East St. 
Catherine, alleging that the JLP "has no regard for poor people and 
no regard for the working class..." 
 
¶5. (SBU) However, Embassy contacts within the PNP were skeptical of 
Valentine's chances, noting that the JLP enjoyed the advantage in 
terms of financial resources, both public and private, and were far 
more organized on the ground.  Although the electorate is frustrated 
by high unemployment, inflation, a stagnant economy, and rampant 
gang-related crime, the Golding government has been successful in 
diverting responsibility for these issues to global economic 
conditions and/or the previous PNP governments. 
¶6. (SBU) One PNP operative expressed incredulity to PolOff that his 
party hadn't selected a candidate weeks earlier, given that the 
court's ruling was widely anticipated.  According to media sources, 
some in the PNP were wary of mounting a challenge due to the party's 
fundraising difficulties and the lingering effects of a leadership 
challenge in September 2008, in addition to concerns that voters 
would be weary of electioneering so soon after the 2007 general 
election.  Media reports noted that some in the constituency favored 
the nomination of Abe Dabdoub, the former MP for the constituency 
who was defeated by Daryl Vaz in West Portland in 2007 (Reftel G). 
 
¶7. (SBU) It was perhaps telling that PNP leader and former Prime 
Minister Portia Simpson Miller did not attend Valentine's 
announcement.  The charismatic Simpson Miller had mounted a high 
profile campaign in favor of Kenneth Rowe, the PNP candidate Vaz 
defeated with 58 percent of the vote in the March 2009 by-election 
(Reftel J).  A similar effort followed by another defeat in the 
North East St. Catherine by-election might further tarnish Simpson 
Miller's reputation and raise doubts about her leadership in the 
party.  Previous reporting has intimated that Simpson Miller may not 
have been fully aware of the potential repercussions of such a 
litigious approach to contesting the 2007 general election results 
(Reftel G), suggesting she might now regret the position to which 
such a strategy has led the PNP. 
Mair 
----- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Meanwhile, the JLP appeared to be pulling out all the stops 
to ensure Mair's reelection to the seat, which he won with 54 
percent of the vote in 2007.  Warren Newby, president of Generation 
2000, the JLP's youth organization, was named campaign manager, 
while Shahine Robinson, JLP MP for the St. Ann North East 
constituency, was named campaign director; interestingly, Robinson 
is the plaintiff in one of the two remaining PNP election petition 
court cases due to her joint U.S./Jamaican citizenship at the time 
of her 2007 nomination. 
 
"Vulgarly Partisan" 
---------- 
 
¶8. (U) The PNP has described as "vulgarly partisan" three major 
government Labour Day public works projects on May 25 in the three 
constituencies in which by-elections are scheduled or likely, 
reflecting the greater PNP concern that government spending in the 
districts since 2007 might sway voters toward the JLP. 
 
¶9. (U) Media reports from North East St. Catherine meanwhile suggest 
road construction, water projects and jobs are more important to 
voters than the prospect of another by-election.  Mair is apparently 
perceived as a hard worker who has paid attention to the 
constituency and brought much-needed road improvements to several 
districts. Some local citizens interviewed expressed the view that 
Mair would win easily and that the by-election was a waste of 
money. 
Outstanding Cases 
------ 
 
¶8. (U) The two remaining qualification challenges are scheduled for 
court hearings in the coming months.  Failed PNP candidate Richard 
Azan's challenge to the JLP's Michael Stern's qualifications to hold 
the North West Clarendon seat due to his dual U.S./Jamaican 
citizenship is scheduled for July 27, with the challenge to North 
East St. Ann's Shahine Robinson, also a dual U.S./Jamaican citizen, 
to come later. 
 
Sauce for the Goose... 
------ 
 
¶9. (U) Meanwhile, the Golding Administration has hinted that the JLP 
might raise similar legal challenges to the qualifications of at 
least one sitting PNP MP if the PNP does not cooperate on a 
constitutional resolution to the dual citizenship eligibility issue. 
 Sharon Hay-Webster, the PNP MP for the South Central St. Catherine 
 
constituency, has admitted to being a U.S. citizen and to having 
traveled on her U.S. passport, while Ian Hayles, the PNP MP for 
Hanover Western has also admitted that he did not renounce his U.S. 
citizenship until after his election (Reftel F) 
 
¶10. (U) In the Appeal Court's written judgment in the Vaz case, 
Court of Appeal President Seymour Panton called on legislators to 
amend the Constitution to clarify the qualifications necessary to 
serve in Parliament and in other positions of authority, expressing 
dismay that a citizen of a Commonwealth country would be eligible 
while a U.S. citizen in the large Jamaican-American diaspora would 
not.  The PNP, however, has insisted that dual citizenship 
eligibility should be addressed in the context of wider 
constitutional reforms, perhaps requiring public referenda. 
Conclusion 
------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) Following its defeat in the September 2007 general 
election, the PNP adopted the strategy of challenging the 
nominations of four JLP MPs with the goal of peeling off enough 
seats to strip the JLP of its 31-28 majority and take over the 
government once again.  However, given the party's organizational 
and financial disadvantages, it does not appear that the PNP will be 
able to follow these judicial successes with electoral victories. 
Should Mair win by a greater percentage of the vote than he did in 
2007, as Vaz did in the March 2009 by-election, it could prove an 
embarrassment to the PNP and a much-needed show of support for 
Golding's administration, not to mention a troubling omen for the 
PNP's chances in the two remaining by-elections. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Despite formidable economic challenges at home, a 
burgeoning crime wave, and the prospects of labor unrest, the 
current JLP government seems well-poised to survive until the next 
general election in 2012.  Nevertheless, with the narrowest 
parliamentary majority in Jamaican history, Golding's room for 
political maneuver will be limited and he will not have the luxury 
of alienating any members of the JLP majority.  Golding will likely 
not risk a snap general election to increase his party's 
parliamentary majority until the country's economy has stabilized. 
End Comment. 
HEG