VZCZCXRO4927
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0696/01 1481357
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281357Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3871
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000696 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN, USAID/W DCHA SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CREDIBILITY OF ELECTIONS AT RISK WITH SLIPPING ELECTIONS 
TIMELINE 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Despite the hope of election preparations moving 
forward rapidly with the formation of the National Election 
Commission (NEC), such preparation continues to be   delayed.  The 
NEC is already behind the election timeline that was announced on 
April 2, 2009 when an election date was set for February 2010.  Now 
the NEC plans to further delay national elections to late April 
¶2010. The current organization of the NEC gives weight to primarily 
two committees, and Post is concerned that the two Southern 
commissioners are being sidelined.  The NEC is also slow in its 
election preparations to respond to best practices guidance from 
international advisors.  USAID/Sudan officers had a series of 
elections-related meetings on May 19 - 20, including with the 
Ministry of International Cooperation (MIC), the National Election 
Commission, the Political Party Affairs Council, the Donor Working 
Group, the UNMIS Electoral Division, and USAID's Election 
Administration Support Program partner, the International Foundation 
for Electoral Systems (IFES).  These discussions highlighted 
concerns over the credibility of the  evolving electoral process. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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FURTHER ELECTIONS DELAY, ESTIMATED ELECTIONS BUDGET 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (SBU) USAID/Sudan Acting Mission Director, Regional Legal 
Advisor, and Democracy and Governance officer met with Ministry of 
International Cooperation Undersecretary El-Fathi.  The primary 
purpose of the meeting was to discuss USAID's implementation 
protocols for national elections assistance. During this meeting, 
Undersecretary El-Fathi explained that two new working groups have 
recently been established by the NEC to engage the international 
community on election coordination. The first is a high-level 
Election Policy Working Group composed of principal countries/donors 
supporting the elections, and the second is a Technical Working 
Group composed of election advisors and implementation partners. 
 
¶3. (U) Undersecretary El-Fathi, UNMIS Electoral Division Chief 
Ray Kennedy and USAID Electoral Administration Program Partner, 
IFES, reported that the first Policy Committee meeting was on May 
17, 2009.  The NEC, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, UNMIS, UNDP, 
representatives of the European Commission and UK DFID attended the 
meeting. The original composition of the committee was intended to 
allow it to  focus on management of the UNDP basket and its 
principal donors.  The Committee decided to expand the Policy 
Committee to include the U.S., Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) 
Ministry of Regional Cooperation, and the Political Party Affairs 
Council. 
 
¶4. (SBU) During the May 17  meeting, the NEC proposed a possible 
delayof elections to April 2010 on the heals of an April 2, 2009 
decision that the elections were to be held in February 2010.  The 
attendees discussed the status of voter registration, which has not 
begun. The NEC's proposed plan does not meet minimum international 
standards. (NOTE: There is a risk of manipulation of ballots on 
voting day without a method to substantiate both the voters list and 
registered voters. END NOTE.) With shared input from the 
international elections advisors, including USAID-funded IFES, UN 
Special Representative of the Secretary General Qazi insisted that 
voter registration meet minimum international standards and proposed 
two simple and technology-appropriate criteria: (1) pre-printing 
serial numbers on all voter registration forms, and (2) ensuring 
that voters receive proof of registration at the time of 
registration. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Undersecretary El-Fathi said that the NEC also presented a 
budget of SDP 1.1 billion (appx. 480,000 USD) with a request that 30 
percent be provided by donors at the Elections Policy Committee 
meeting. El-Fathi questioned the NEC's ability to develop a budget 
based on technical needs and requested that IFES support the NEC to 
develop a realistic budget. (NOTE: IFES meets regularly with the NEC 
and technical assistance on developing an elections budget has been 
discussed with the NEC numerous times without a favorable response 
from the NEC. Election advisors/experts from IFES, UNMIS, UNDP, and 
the EC collectively indicate that while NEC will receive technical 
input or material, it is  slow to open up to an iterative engagement 
process. END NOTE.) 
 
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ELECTION POLICY COMMITTEE AND TECHNICAL COMMITTEE 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
KHARTOUM 00000696  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) The objective of the Elections Policy Committee, endorsed by 
the NEC on May 25, 2009, is "to discuss and provide recommendations 
to the NEC and other national authorities on major policy issues in 
support of the delivery of genuine, credible, and transparent 
elections. The Elections Policy Committee will also provide 
strategic guidelines to the Technical Committee to optimize 
international technical support to the electoral process in Sudan." 
The membership includes both national institutions and development 
partners: NEC Chairman and/or Deputy Chairman; Ministry of 
International Cooperation, Government of National Unity (GoNU); 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (GoNU); Ministry of Regional Cooperation 
(GoSS); Political Party Affairs Council Chairman or Deputy Chairman; 
the UN SRSG with technical support by the UNMIS Electoral Division 
Chief; UNDP Country Director with support from the UNDP head of the 
basket fund;), the USAID Mission Director; European Commission 
Representative; and two Ambassadors from donor countries.  The 
Committee will meet monthly; the first meeting is tentatively 
scheduled for June 1, 2009. (NOTE: The two Ambassadors are likely to 
be from donor countries contributing to the UNDP basket fund. The 
USG has not contributed directly to the fund. END NOTE) 
 
¶7. (U) Also on May 25, the NEC endorsed the draft Elections 
Technical Committee's objective, which is "to coordinate technical 
support to the electoral process in Sudan and effectively and timely 
engage electoral assistance providers with the National Elections 
Commission. Ultimately, the Elections Technical Committee under the 
guidance of the Elections Policy Committee will support the National 
Elections Commission in delivering technically sound and credible 
elections as called for in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement."  The 
Elections Technical Committee will be led by the NEC and hold weekly 
meetings.  Membership includes technical assistance partners, UNMIS, 
UNDP, IFES, EU, and is open to any organization providing technical 
assistance to the electoral process "as deemed appropriate by the 
NEC." 
 
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CENSUS UPDATE 
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¶8. (SBU) Although the Government of National Unity Presidency 
endorsed the census on May 7, 2009, the official census results 
still have not been released.  However, NEC Vice Chairman Abdallah 
indicated that the NEC has the census results and will use the data 
to start constituency delimitation and use it as the basis for voter 
registration.  According to unofficial results, the voting 
population, 18 years of age and over, is 52.8 percent at 20,692,131 
out of a total population of 39,154,490. The actual census breakout 
looked at persons 17 years of age and older as census enumeration 
occurred last year and they would now be of voting age in 2009. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Southern Sudan Commission for Census, Statistics, 
and Evaluation (SSCCSE) raised three primary concerns with the 
census results:  (1) low number of southerners in Khartoum and the 
North, (2) high number of nomads (NOTE: It is widely known that 
people in Southern Kordafan boycotted the census END NOTE.), (3) 
high population in Darfur that is fairly equivalent to the 
population in Southern Sudan. UNMIS, IFES, and USAID views the issue 
with using the census results for constituency delimitation to be 
problematic with populations in areas where enumeration coverage was 
inadequate either because people boycotted the census or because of 
insecurity; it is possible the population could be further 
marginalized, as they would not receive adequate representation 
reflecting their true numbers. 
 
¶10. (SBU) A USAID advisor to the census reported that in a 
brief encounter with GoSS Minister of Presidential Affairs, Luka 
Biong Deng, on May 25, Deng said that there would be a lot of work 
to be done in terms of presenting basic analysis to key 
stakeholders. He said that the GoSS aim is to delink the census 
results from constituency delimitation (in which the NEC has already 
indicated they would proceed with using the census results) and the 
power sharing protocol. (NOTE: Per Minister Deng's remarks, GoSS 
negotiations appear to be ongoing with the NCP.  Without full GoSS 
endorsement, the status of the official census results is not in 
keeping  with media reports citing agreement on census figures. The 
distribution of the census to the NEC and state governors from the 
Central Bureau of Statistics in Khartoum without a complete 
settlement with GoSS is also adding to the confusion. END NOTE.) 
 
¶11. (SBU) UNMIS and IFES have provided technical material and 
offered expertise on voter registration and constituency 
delimitation to the NEC, but the NEC had not taken up any offer of 
support. However, there is a slow but perceptible change in the tide 
 
KHARTOUM 00000696  003 OF 003 
 
 
on technical assistance: the NEC specifically requested IFES to 
identify a seasoned expert to revise their constituency delimitation 
plan. 
 
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NEC ORGANIZATION 
----------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Up unti  now, there have only been two functioning 
committees at the NEC:(1) Elections Technical Affairs Committee led 
by Dr. Muktar Al Assam and the (2) Electoral Registry and 
Constituencies Methods and Training Committee by Secretary General 
Dr. Galal Mohamed Ahmed. They, in addition to Deputy Chairman 
Abdallah Ahmed Abdallah, have been dubbed  the "triumvirate" among 
the international election advisors. This triumvirate has managed to 
concentrate authority and decision-making on the electoral process, 
to the exclusion of the two Southern Sudanese Commissioners.  The 
Southern Commissioners are part of the NEC Committee on Southern 
Sudan Election High Committee (SSEHC) and the 25 State Election High 
(SEHC) Committees. Although the names of the SSEHC and SEHC 
commissioners were released on May 27, 2009, the NEC has not made an 
official announcement, and the functions of this Committee are 
fairly limited. UNMIS' Ray Kennedy and the IFES Chief of Party 
separately expressed concerns that the two Southern Commissioners 
have been marginalized.  They noted that there is no visible SPLM 
effort for a greater role for these commissioners and to advocate 
for national representation. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶13. (SBU) The lack of clarity over how the census results will be 
used, and the assumption that the GOSS and SPLM will reject their 
use, will continue to complicate elections planning with regard to 
constituency delimitation.  Moreover, although it is still premature 
  to make a final  assessment, concerns over the NEC's lukewarm 
receptivity of international technical expertise and experienced 
advisors for electoral administration assistance may signal an 
increased likelihood of a flawed electoral process.  The delayed 
elections timeline to April 2010 compromises the ability of Blue 
Nile State and Southern Kordofan to undertake viable popular 
consultations (already long delayed as according to the   CPA the 
consultations are meant to gauge the CPA's acceptability to  these 
populations) which would need to be led by newly-elected 
legislatures.  Moreover, popular consultations would likely collide 
with a seemingly fixed referendum timeline before the end of the CPA 
interim period of 8 July 2011 - unless the parties agree to delay it 
- something the SPLM is highly unlikely to accept. As preparations 
progress on elections with USG foreign assistance, parallel USG 
diplomatic engagement will be required to ensure that overall USG 
strategy and efforts support an electoral process in Sudan that is 
as credible as possible. 
 
ASQUINO