VZCZCXRO2203
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0684/01 1451905
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 251905Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3850
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000684 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: JEM ASSAULTS GOS IN UMM BARRO, MINNAWI ON STANDBY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: JEM forces clashed with GOS forces on May 24 in 
Umm Barro, North Darfur, forcing Sudanese soldiers to seek refuge at 
the UNAMID team site there, with JEM subsequently retreating back 
behind the Chadian border.  Up to 300 civilians have sought refuge 
at the team site as well.  Minni Minnawi reported JEM did not attack 
his forces, but anticipates his movement will be drawn into conflict 
with JEM in the future.  According to the UN, dynamics in Darfur do 
not favor JEM success in the short term, but do indicate that the 
Chad-based Darfuri rebel faction will continue its attacks on 
Sudanese military installations. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) UNAMID sources told poloff that on May 24, a sophisticated 
attack of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) displaced Sudanese 
Armed Forces (SAF) from Umm Barru, resulting in significant 
casualties from both sides.  According to UNDSS, JEM may have 
received strategic support for the attack from Chadian military, as 
three separate waves of JEM attackers assaulted the minor SAF 
outpost in Umm Barru (however the direct involvement of the Chadian 
military has not been confirmed by UNAMID).  UNAMID has not yet been 
able to confirm the number of serious casualties on either side, but 
following the combat, ten injured SAF soldiers sought treatment at 
the UNAMID team site in Umm Barru.  In addition to approximately 300 
civilians who arrived at the UNAMID team site there after the 
fighting, it was also reported that 100 unarmed GOS combatants 
sought refuge in the team site, possibly after fleeing from combat. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Meeting with poloff in El Fasher on May 25, Minni Minnawi 
said that JEM forces did not engage his Sudanese Liberation Army 
(SLA) forces in Umm Barro, located in the heart of Dar Zaghawa.  "We 
were not involved, but we will be involved" in clashes with JEM in 
the future, Minnawi foresaw, "JEM will force us to war."  The most 
recent information from Minnawi's forces in Umm Barro indicated that 
JEM had immediately withdrawn back to Chad after the attack had 
ended.  Confident that SLA/Minnawi forces had repulsed the May 9 JEM 
assault on Umm Barro, Minnawi was tight-lipped as to how his 
movement would respond, but said his movement would not hesitate to 
attack JEM in "self-defense."  Minnawi said he may fly to Khartoum 
on May 26 to meet with GOS Vice President Ali Osman Taha to discuss 
the situation in Darfur. (Note: UNAMID reported on May 25 that 
SLA/Minnawi field combatants are now receiving both food and 
ammunition from the GOS (protect). End note.) 
¶4. (SBU) UN Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in 
El Fasher reported to aidoff on May 25 that due to the recent 
fighting in the western reaches of North Darfur, Darfuri civilians 
have begun collecting in recent days near the UNAMID team site in 
Umm Barro.  As of May 25, UN-OCHA reported that slightly over 300 
IDPs relocated to the team site, up from 230 IDPs the previous day. 
At the present time no humanitarian assistance is being provided 
with the exception of limited water supplies from UNAMID, and the 
newly-displaced IDPs are cooking and providing their own supplies. 
UNAMID's main concern remains that sanitation in the area is 
limited, as there are no latrines or sanitation facilities 
available.  Umm Barro falls under the control of UNAMID West sector, 
and according to UNAMID, Sector West is developing a contingency 
plan in the event of further deterioration in the security 
situation. 
¶5. (SBU) JEM's attack on Umm Barro, and their subsequent retreat 
back into Chad, mark the third time Khalil Ibrahim's faction has 
assaulted the Sudanese frontier in as many weeks, only to retreat. 
According to the UN, JEM is stymied by internal and external 
dynamics that are proving disadvantageous to them.  Reports from the 
field suggest that Suleiman Jamous, the former SLA/Unity commander 
who defected to JEM in April of this year, has not succeeded in 
attracting as many low-level fighters as expected.  JEM's continued 
inability to bring on key "free agents" among the Darfuri rebel 
commanders (including Ali Karbino, Abdullah Banda and Abubakr Kado) 
indicate that JEM will be unable to take territory in Darfur and 
hold it in the short term.  Additionally, JEM's losses are already 
proving to be the GOS's gain, as several sources in El Fasher have 
reported that Sudanese authorities have recently been seen in El 
Fasher driving brand-new Chadian vehicles abandoned by JEM in their 
battles over the past few weeks. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: JEM's scattered May offensives on remote locations 
in North Darfur have yet to yield any significant gains for the 
faction, and the GOS has reacted with uncommon restraint. However, 
if JEM demonstrates that it intends to move toward other major 
targets further into Darfur or other parts of Sudan, the GOS will 
inevitably begin bombing JEM locations heavily, as they did before 
JEM's May 2008 attack on Omdurman.  With JEM intent on proving its 
military capacity through targeted attacks and hasty retreats, it 
appears that the movement may be attempting to strengthen its hand 
at negotiations in Doha.  Although it does not control any territory 
in Darfur, JEM is the only movement currently inflicting any damage 
on the government and this may force the government eventually to 
 
KHARTOUM 00000684  002 OF 002 
 
 
agree to JEM's demands of prisoner releases in the hopes of reaching 
a ceasefire.  Alternatively, if the government is gaining Land 
Cruisers, it may be content to allow JEM to continue these isolated 
assaults while waiting for the mud-enforced ceasefire of the rainy 
season to begin in June/July. 
 
ASQUINO