VZCZCXRO1022
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0678/01 1421231
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221231Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3839
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000678 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NORTH DARFUR REMAINS CALM FOLLOWING CLASHES 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 666 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The situation in North Darfur has remained calm 
since May 17 clashes between JEM and the GOS at Karnoi, according to 
UN and rebel sources. Meanwhile, the extent of JEM's presence in 
Darfur remains unclear. A UNDSS officer told poloff that JEM has 
retreated into Chad, but UNAMID has received unconfirmed sightings 
of JEM columns as far east as Hashaba (Northwest of Kutum). There 
are also a growing number of reports of civilian displacements due 
to the recent violence. In West Darfur, meanwhile, several hundred 
Chadian rebels are apparently camped out at Saro, south of Mukjar, 
and have been observed regularly purchasing food in Mukjar market. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Speaking to poloff on May 21, UN Department of Security and 
Safety (UNDSS) Officer Francis Sikaonga confirmed that North Darfur 
remained calm on May 21, with no new clashes between the Justice and 
Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) reported. 
Calling JEM's advance on Karnoi a "hit-and-run," Sikaonga said 
information from the field concurs with reports from UNDSS 
colleagues in eastern Chad that JEM has returned to eastern Chad to 
seek treatment for its wounded fighters. (Note: a May 20 report from 
UNDSS in Chad confirmed the presence of many JEM vehicles in the 
vicinity of Bahai, Chad. UNDSS further stated that an additional 30 
wounded JEM fighters arrived at Iriba hospital in Chad on May 19, 
bringing the total number of JEM wounded there to 64. End Note.) On 
May 21, SLA/AW-aligned commander Suleiman Marajan also told poloff 
that JEM had retreated to Bahai. 
 
¶3. (SBU) UNDSS reports indicate that neither Karnoi nor Um Barro is 
occupied by JEM, as Khalil Ibrahim's rebel faction does not have the 
resources to seize and hold ground in Darfur.   UNAMID Chief of 
Staff John Almstrom confirmed that the instability along the border 
in North Darfur does not pose a security threat to the visit of 
Codel Isakson on Tuesday, May 26 to El Fasher.  Almstrom agreed with 
UNDSS's assessment that JEM occupies no locations involved in last 
week's clashes.  He added that JEM has no capacity for a "long haul" 
from the Chadian border to the North Darfur capital of El Fasher, 
approximately 300 km away. 
 
¶4. (SBU) UNAMID has yet to send a verification patrol to the Karnoi 
area due to security concerns, according to UNAMID Political Affairs 
Officer Hideo Ikebe, but it has continued to receive unconfirmed 
reports of JEM sightings in North Darfur, including one as far East 
as Hashaba (approximately 50 kilometers northeast of Kutum.) Khalil 
Tukras, an El Fasher human rights lawyer and rebel interlocutor, 
told poloff on May 21 that several JEM columns are present in North 
Darfur, and that JEM maintains de facto control of most of the area 
west of Kutum. JEM's incursions have caused civilian displacements, 
he said, as local Zaghawa in Kornoi not from the Kobe clan of Khalil 
Ibrahim are fleeing south. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Speaking to poloff from El Fasher on May 21, SLA/Minnawi 
representative Adam Ali Ware said that travelers returning from the 
Kornoi area reported civilians fleeing there following the March 17 
clashes and subsequent overflights of the area by GOS Antonov 
bombers. Ware also accused JEM Commander (and Minnawi defector) Arko 
Suleiman Dahia of forcibly driving out resettled civilians from 
Togai (phonetic), Southeast of Karnoi, back to refugee camps in 
Chad, in an apparent attempt to restock JEM's recruitment pool in 
these camps. Ware stated that he expects JEM will resume attacks on 
SLA/Minnawi, possibly in one of Minnawi's few remaining strongholds 
south of El Fasher, including Dar es Salaam. He doubted that JEM 
would attack additional GOS bases, noting that while Kornoi was 
relatively weak, other GOS encampments are stronger. (Note: outside 
of Kornoi, other GOS encampments in North Darfur reportedly include 
from west to east: Tine, Umm Barro, Shegeg Karo, Ana Bagi, Kutum, El 
Fasher, Mellit, Saya, Kuma and Malha. End Note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) In Western Darfur, meanwhile, a recent UNAMID verification 
patrol to Mukjar assessed the security situation there as calm and 
confirmed the hostile bombings by Chadian airplanes on locations of 
Chadian rebels in Saro and Ramaila, southwest of Mukjar on May 
14-15. No civilian victims of these bombings have been identified. 
The patrol also found that there were approximately 200 Chadian 
rebels in Saro, and an unknown number in Ramaila, and on May 17 
those in Ramaila withdrew to join the ranks in Saro. UNAMID 
estimated the rebels to be in possession of approximately 150 
vehicles. Chadian rebels in heavily-armed vehicles are apparently a 
common sight in the Mukjar market, where they are often seen 
purchasing food. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: While it remains highly capable of hit-and-run 
attacks, JEM has yet to prove it can hold  territory. It appears to 
have learned a lesson from its disastrous foray into Muhajeriya, 
 
KHARTOUM 00000678  002 OF 002 
 
 
where its supply lines became stretched so thin that functioning 
Landcruisers were reported to have been abandoned due to a lack of 
fuel. The western reaches of North Darfur remain much closer to 
JEM's base in Um Jaras.  JEM may be able to enter SLA/Minnawi and 
former SLA/Unity territory with ease.  However, it will run into 
difficulties if it moves too far east into Meidob territory, 
northeast of El Fasher. Recent events and JEM's public statements 
continue to cast doubt on whether Khalil Ibrahim is either capable 
or inclined to play a constructive role in the Doha peace process. 
End comment. 
 
 
ASQUINO