VZCZCXRO7034
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0661/01 1381433
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181433Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3818
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000661 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: JEM TAKES KARNOI FROM GOS, SLA/MM 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 652 
B) KHARTOUM 621 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has taken 
Karnoi, North Darfur, from the Government of Sudan (GOS), and 
unconfirmed reports from SLA/Minni Minnawi cite fifty dead in the 
fighting over the last week near the Chadian border.  Two years to 
the month after the signing of the Darfur Peace Agreement, Minni 
Minnawi and his movement find themselves at a critical juncture but 
are struggling to articulate their response.  UNAMID released a 
statement on May 17 condemning the aggression.  Embassy Khartoum 
urges that the U.S. release a similar condemnation of JEM actions - 
see proposed statement in paragraph 8. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) UNAMID confirmed that JEM took the North Darfur town of 
Karnoi from GOS forces on May 17, with Sudanese Armed Forces troops 
subsequently fleeing the town, but there were no reports of 
additional conflict on May 18.  UNAMID condemned the JEM attacks on 
May 17, with Joint Special Representative Rodolphe Adada saying in a 
statement, "I call on all parties to the Darfur conflict to refrain 
from the use of violence, to seek a peaceful resolution to their 
problems, notably through the Doha process, and to work towards a 
cessation of hostilities."  Arabic-language newspapers in Khartoum 
translated the boast by JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim that JEM intends 
to control all of Darfur. 
 
¶3. (SBU) SLA/MM issued a protest letter on May 14, signed by Darfur 
Peace Agreement (DPA) signatory Minnawi, complaining to the 
international community of JEM aggression in North Darfur.  Accusing 
JEM of "being engaged in dangerous and irresponsible and unprovoked 
acts of aggression and atrocities," the statement said that JEM had 
used 270 vehicles and assistance from Chadian mercenaries to attack 
SLA/MM positions the previous week in Gorbora and east of Um Barro 
(two locations approximately 100 km east of the border with Chad.) 
In addition to extensive looting and civilian displacement, the 
statement claims that more than fifty civilians have died (Note: 
UNAMID has not yet confirmed the figure).  Condemning the recent 
conflict as "terrorist conduct," Minnawi's statement continues to 
accuse JEM of seeking to destabilize Darfur for its advantage.  "JEM 
intends to pursue and fan unprecedented internal conflict of all 
against all, family against family, clan against clan, tribe against 
tribe, and community against community." 
 
¶4. (SBU) In his statement, Minnawi pointed the finger at several 
international actors, including UNAMID.  "UNAMID as usual kept 
silent and did nothing to voice or report on any of these 
violations."  Going beyond commonplace claims of Chadian assistance 
to the Kobe Zaghawa rebel movement, the statement alleges that JEM 
has received financial support provided by international Islamic 
organizations, and unspecified "Qatari assistance" as well. 
Regarding the relationship between Chad and JEM, the statement also 
rejects JEM's attempts to foil relations between Chad and Sudan, 
saying, "JEM is helping the destabilization and fragmentation of 
Chad itself."  The statement closes by requesting "prompt action" 
from the international community to pressure the governments of 
Sudan and Chad to normalize their relations and disown the recent 
JEM aggression in Darfur. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Voices within Minnawi's movement have yet to coalesce 
around a single way forward, and while some SLA/MM insiders are 
counseling engagement with the GOS on the issue of JEM's offensive 
in Dar Zaghawa, some members of the movement are reminiscing about 
their days in armed conflict in Darfur.  Seifeldin Haroun, former 
SLA/MM spokesman, described the inner circle of the movement as 
unable to make clear decisions or formulate a clear plan.  Haroun 
said that Minnawi has been  paralyzed into inaction as a result. 
Speaking with poloffs on May 17 in Khartoum, Haroun added  that he 
is pressuring Minnawi's confidants and Minnawi himself to engage 
with the GOS on how to defeat JEM, but that Minnawi has no clear 
plan on how to deal with the recent changes on the ground.  Issam 
Hamma and Mohamed Adam, two working-level members of SLA/MM who are 
both former field combatants, told poloff on May 14 in Nyala that 
they are pushing for the movement to return to war.  Reminding 
poloff of JEM's move to push SLA/MM from Muhajeriya, South Darfur in 
January of this year, Hamma asked rhetorically, "Do we need to fight 
JEM forever?"  Both said they were delivering their message up the 
ladder that their faction cannot stand idly by as JEM attacks GOS 
positions. They noted that JEM has already delivered a 
"with-us-or-against-us" message to Darfuri rebel factions. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Ambassador Azouz Ennifar, deputy AU/UN Joint Chief Mediator 
for Darfur, urged that the international community condemn the JEM 
aggression in North Darfur.  Citing Khalil Ibrahim's "arrogant" 
tone, Ennifar sees the recent escalation as dangerous because JEM 
has gained actual territory in Darfur at the exact moment that the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000661  002 OF 002 
 
 
Doha process appears to be stalling.  Currently, no agreement has 
been reached on the once-promising prisoner exchange between the GOS 
and JEM that would form the backbone of any goodwill between the two 
parties.  Describing the dispute as a "sticking point," Ennifar said 
that JEM continues to insist that the GOS release all JEM prisoners 
before a cessation of hostilities is signed, but the GOS is adamant 
that a phased release of prisoners can take place only after a 
cessation of hostilities is implemented.  Ennifar believes that 
while previous agreements in Doha have depended on a measure of 
goodwil from Khartoum, goodwill will be hard to come by considering 
that the GOS has lost territory to JEM. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: For the time being, JEM seems to be more 
interested in fighting than in negotiating, as it attempts to 
demonstrate that it now controls territory in Darfur.  Although the 
situation remains difficult to predict, JEM's stepped-up attacks on 
the GOS and SLA/MM lend Khalil Ibrahim forward momentum to stage 
attacks elsewhere in Darfur.  With JEM poised for a potential march 
to El Fasher (though incursions into eastern Jebel Marra are more 
likely in the short term, as SLM/AW is unable to mount any defense 
against JEM's superior resources.  Consequently it may allow JEM to 
occupy some parts of Jebel Marra unopposed) the GOS will most likely 
t soon react with a bombing campaign against JEM. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment continued:  U.S. silence regarding JEM's attack on 
the sole DPA signatory (Minnawi) would be interpreted as tacit 
approval.  For this reason, post suggests the following statement: 
"The United States condemns the recent attacks by the Justice and 
Equality Movement (JEM) on DPA signatory SLM/Minni Minnawi's 
positions in North Darfur at Umm Barru, as well as subsequent 
attacks by JEM on Government of Sudan positions in North Darfur at 
Karnoi.  Such attacks do nothing to advance the cause of peace in 
Darfur.  Instead, they violate the spirit of the Doha peace process, 
and threaten the security that guarantees vital humanitarian 
assistance to Darfur.  Two years after the signing of the Darfur 
Peace Agreement, we call on all parties to the conflict to end the 
violence and engage in constructive discussions on how to bring 
about a cessation of hostilities in Darfur." End comment. 
 
ASQUINO