VZCZCXRO2130
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0626/01 1321317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 121317Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3753
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000626 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ASEC KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: 43rd AEC PLENARY MEETING, MAY 5 2009:  VIOLENCE IN JONGLEI 
AND ELECTION PTREPARATIONS 
 
REF:  KHARTOUM 564 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: At the 43rd Assessment and Evaluation (AEC) 
Plenary Meeting on May 5, western donors came out in strong 
agreement that despite logistical complications and technical 
shortcomings of the recently-completed census, both the NCP and SPLM 
should quickly accept its results.  Donors noted that the census 
results provide as sound a basis as is presently available for 
election preparation.  They also strongly urged passage of the 
referendum law and the need to "de-link" this law on the 
referendum's mechanics from broader discussions of post-2011 
arrangements.  In response, both the NCP and (more reluctantly) the 
SPLM agreed that discussion of accepting census results was the only 
sensible way forward, and that disagreements over this issue would 
be overcome somehow by the Presidency.  The two sides traded 
accusations about who was delaying passage of the referendum law, 
but agreed that the law would be delinked from post-2011 
discussions.  AEC Chairman Plumbly also lauded efforts by the U.S. 
Special Envoy for Sudan and Senator Kerry to reinvigorate the 
partnership between the international community and the two parties, 
and offered AEC support to such a process.  End Summary. 
 
CHAIRMAN'S INTRODUCTION 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) AEC Chair Sir Derek Plumbly remarked on the need to 
reenergize the partnership shared by the international community, 
the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation 
Movement (SPLM).  To this end, he welcomed the timeliness of 
initiatives currently under discussion to reaffirm commitment of the 
parties and international partners to the CPA following the visit of 
Presidential Special Envoy Gration and Senator John Kerry, adding 
that that the AEC is well placed to offer support to such a process. 
 
 
COMBATTING VIOLENCE IN JONGLEI STATE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Discussion shifted to the recent outbreak of tribal 
violence in Jonglei state (reftel), as well as more intermittent 
violence in other parts of the South.  The UN briefed AEC members on 
its plans to stabilize Jonglei state in coordination with the 
Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) and state authorities, including 
emergency deployment of UNMIS forces and UNPOL, technical support to 
the Jonglei-state security committee and other state authorities, 
and support for ongoing peace and reconciliation efforts between 
different tribal groups.  The AEC observer from Kenya also noted 
that peace in South Sudan is of the utmost importance to his 
country, and called for  further efforts to promote t South-South 
reconciliation. 
 
ELECTIONS: CENSUS AND BORDER DEMARCATION 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Italy (Power Sharing Working Group coordinator) noted that 
timely preparations for the 2010 national elections remain at the 
core of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement's (CPA) stability, 
reiterating that the end of the interim period (in 2011) is now 
rapidly approaching.  Italy noted the timeframe for the election 
proposed by the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and the 
activities associated with it represent a very positive development, 
and also lauded efforts by the UN and UNDP to provide appropriate 
financial and technical assistance.  However, Italy warned that this 
was only one of the elements needed to stage free and fair 
elections.  Others, including acceptance of the census results and 
completion of internationally arbitration on border demarcation, are 
critical and as yet unachieved. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On the census specifically, Italy noted that while the 
final result will undoubtedly be subject to objections  by the SPLM, 
and that all members were aware of the imperfections of the census, 
it was conducted as well as could be expected given the many 
obstacles to its successful completion.   Thus, the Italian 
Ambassador said it would be a mistake to question its legitimacy 
under such circumstances.   With this in mind, Italy called on both 
parties to accept the census results as a sound basis for election 
preparation. DCM Asquino, the UK, Norway, the Netherlands and EC 
representatives all strongly  endorsed Italy's statements, 
acknowledging significant logistical challenges in election 
preparations, but noting that that there needs to be quick agreement 
on how the parties will use the census results.    The NCP agreed 
that discussion and resolution of North-South disagreements on 
census results was the only sensible way forward, and that this 
issue would be overcome somehow by the Presidency.  The SPLM, 
 
KHARTOUM 00000626  002 OF 003 
 
 
meanwhile said that to a certain extent it agreed with the NCP: 
while it continued to have questions and concerns relating to the 
way the census was carried out and its results, these simply had to 
be overcome for elections to move forward. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) With regard to border demarcation, Italy noted that the Ad 
Hoc North/South border committee had become deadlocked on how to 
proceed.  While recognizing that this was a technical committee, 
Italy urged the parties to facilitate a more productive environment 
to address outstanding disagreements and allow quick progress on 
demarcation.  This notion was strongly endorsed by the other donors. 
 
 
REFERENDUM LAW AND POST-2011 ARRANGEMENTS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Italy noted the criticality of both the media and press law 
and the referendum law, as well as the need to look beyond the 2011 
referendum on southern self-determination.  With regard to the 
referendum, the representative from Norway noted that pursuant to 
February's AEC Plenary and subsequent bilateral meetings, both 
parties had agreed on the need for two complementary processes - a 
technical law on the modalities of the referendum itself, and a 
discussion on post-referendum arrangements.  However, it was obvious 
that the parties had not yet been able to engage in discussions on 
either of these issues, and it remained unclear  exactly how these 
processes would start, and what elements should be considered first. 
 Norway said that while it very much supported further discussions 
on post-referendum arrangements, any linkage between the Referendum 
Law and so-called post-2011 arrangements "would be contrary to both 
the letter and the spirit of the Agreement," a sentiment that was 
roundly endorsed by the U.S., UK, EC and the Netherlands.  Norway 
urged the NCP to begin engagement on the technical law without 
further delay and without conditionality.  When this happened, 
Norway would expect the SPLM to engage in good faith negotiations on 
post-2011 arrangements, something they have already said they are 
willing to do. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The NCP strongly disagreed with the notion that discussing 
post-2011 arrangements in connection with the referendum was somehow 
against the spirit and letter of the CPA, noting that that the CPA 
is about creating the circumstances in Sudan in which the people of 
South could exercise their right to self determination with full 
understanding of what it was they were voting for.  However, the NCP 
acknowledged that these processes would be delinked, and "everyone 
would get their wish."  Regarding the referendum law process, the 
NCP noted that the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) 
had previously been discussing a draft referendum law, and had 
formed a sub-committee for that purpose, but that the work of this 
subcommittee had been suspended by the SPLM following the 
appointment of Abel Alier to the NEC.  The NCP representatives said 
they were happy to join with other members' calls that there to be 
no further delay in this process. 
 
¶9. (SBU) In response, the SPLM noted that in many cases the 
high-level political and executive committee consisting of members 
of the two parties had considered aspects of the legislative draft 
process, as well as the NCRC.  The idea here was not to bypass the 
NCRC, but to supplement its work and make sure that by the time 
bills were presented to the Council of Ministers and the National 
Assembly, they have at least been agreed upon by the two CPA 
parties.  As part of this arrangement, the SPLM had proposed a draft 
referendum bill to the legal sub-committee on which it claimed it 
was still awaiting a response from the NCP.    The SPLM explained 
that this high-level political and executive committee also had 
discussed the post-referendum arrangements, something that the SPLM 
had no issue with, noting such discussions made sense in promoting 
a better understanding of how to proceed following the referendum 
result. These discussions, according to the SPLM, though not 
mandated by the CPA, should help to create a better environment for 
the referendum itself. (The SPLM pointed to the Abyei Roadmap as a 
good precedent for this.)  Concluding on this point, the SPLM said 
that given  the common  history and  environment all Sudanese 
shared, it would be impossible for one side to simply leave or break 
away without an understanding of future arrangements.  That said, 
the SPLM agreed with members that there should be no 
pre-conditioning of such discussions. 
 
¶10. (SBU) AEC Chairman Plumbly concluded that there was a very 
clear, unequivocal message to the parties from the international 
community that the census should be accepted following further 
political discussion, and that it had been useful to hear from the 
parties that the Presidency would be meeting within the next few 
days on this subject. Regarding the Referendum law and the post-2011 
 
KHARTOUM 00000626  003 OF 003 
 
 
arrangements, there also seemed to be a very clear message to 
proceed urgently on both of these discussions in both available 
fora, namely the NCRC and the high-level political and executive 
committee.  This was especially important, given that the sense from 
the meeting is that there is very little if any discussion currently 
in progress on either of the subjects in either forum. 
 
FERNANDEZ