VZCZCXRO6528
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0591/01 1251402
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051402Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3693
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000591 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS STILL FEAR ARMY OFFENSIVE, PLEDGE NOT TO 
STAND DOWN 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 525 
B) KHAROTUM 212 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a May 4 meeting in Khartoum, RFC Chadian Rebel 
Commander (and close associate of UFR President Timane Erdimi) 
Mahamat Hanno claimed that the Chadian Army remains poised to attack 
the Chadian rebels along the nebulous border region.  Hanno 
backtracked on earlier assertions that the entire Chadian rebel 
force is inside Chad. He expressed great skepticism that the May 3 
Doha Accord between Chad and Sudan would halt Chadian President Deby 
from launching an offensive, and dismissed the notion that pressure 
from the international community would dissuade him from doing so. 
Hanno chastised the USG for insisting that the rebels stand down 
while at the same time denying opportunities for political 
engagement, noting that UFR President Erdimi would welcome a phone 
conversation with USG officials in Washington. Erdimi is currently 
beset by communications difficulties, he said, but has the ability 
to make outbound calls. Poloffs provided the phone number of AF/C 
Director Wycoff, as previously agreed with AF/C. On May 5, a GOC 
spokesman accused the GOS of violating the Doha Accord and asserted 
that several armed columns were launched against Chad. UNAMID 
sources confirmed the presence of two Chadian rebel columns in 
Chadian territory 65 and 10km North East of Goz Beida (near Amdam) 
on May 5, but could not confirm any clashes. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Meeting with poloffs in Khartoum on May 4, Hanno asserted 
that the Chadian army is positioned to attack the Chadian rebels in 
the ill-defined border area. "N'Djamena is empty. They have sent all 
their forces toward the border," he claimed. "They will attack us 
sooner or later." Hanno remained doubtful that Deby would hold back 
his forces, despite the signing of the Doha Accord between the GOS 
and GOC on May 3. "He will not respect it. He will make his own 
calculations about what is in his best interests, and that's what he 
will act upon." Hanno further dismissed the possibility that 
international pressure could avert a pre-emptive GOC attack on the 
Chadian rebels, or persuade the GOC to cut off its support to JEM. 
In particular, USG leverage on the Chadian leader was limited, he 
said, because "Deby has never been received by you in Washington." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Polchief pressed Hanno on the location of the Chadian rebel 
army, questioning whether the entire force had really crossed into 
Chad inside the Hajar al Marfein region, based on conflicting 
information from other reports. Back-tracking somewhat on his 
earlier assertions (Ref A), Hanno claimed that "there are 8,000 to 
10,000 UFR fighters in Chad and all along the border areas," noting 
that the actual border was very nebulous. On May 5, the GOC accused 
the GOS of launching a military assault against Chad. "While the ink 
has yet to dry on the Doha accord, the Khartoum regime has just 
launched several armoured columns against our country," 
Communications Minister Mahamat Hissein, the government spokesman, 
was quoted in the press as saying on state radio. UNAMID sources 
confirmed to poloff the presence of two Chadian rebel columns in 
Chadian territory 65 and 10km North East of Goz Beida (near Amdam), 
respectively. Each column is estimated to contain 60-70 vehicles. 
They are believed to have entered Chad on May 4. 
(Note: Previously UNAMID sources had told poloff they were unable to 
verify the strength or locations of Chadian rebel forces with any 
degree of certainty, but noted there were unconfirmed reports on May 
2 putting Chadian rebel groups in Sudanese territory, across the 
border opposite to the area between Adr and Toumtouma in Eastern 
Chad. UNMID sources also noted unconfirmed reports that Chadian 
Army forces at Adr were seen "on alert" as if preparing for an 
imminent rebel attack. Chadian army BMP-1 armored personnel carriers 
and BM-21 rocket launchers were reportedly observed exposed and 
ready for action. UNAMID received an unconfirmed report that a rebel 
advance team had attempted (and failed) to reach Abeche to destroy 
military aircraft there several days prior, but this rumor remains 
unsubstantiated. End Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) Polchief reiterated to Hanno the USG's strong disapproval 
of any offensive action taken along the border by either GOC forces 
or Chadian rebels, and urged the Chadian rebels not to launch any 
attacks. "You cannot look at it like that," snapped Hanno. "They are 
ready to attack us. We can't just sit there and do nothing." He then 
chastised the international community, in particular the USG, for 
its perceived audacity in demanding the rebels stand down. "We've 
been asking you for over six months" to force Deby to engage with us 
politically, he said, noting the letter that URF President Erdimi 
sent to AF/C Director Wycoff (Ref B). "We prepared a delegation to 
send to Washington, but we never received an invite." He then 
posited that clashes between the Chadian Army and the rebels might 
spur a negotiated settlement. "Concurrent with the fighting, we can 
negotiate," he said. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000591  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Hanno said that UFR President Erdimi would welcome a call 
from USG officials in Washington, but was currently beset by 
communications difficulties; the Chadian rebels have self-imposed a 
ban on the use of Thuraya satellite phones, he said, over fears that 
the GOC (and the French) are eavesdropping on their conversations 
and using the phones to track rebel positions. "For the past three 
weeks, no one in the field has been using telephones," he said. 
While the Chadian rebels also possess rival Iridium satellite 
phones, these have apparently had technical difficulties; currently, 
those in the field with Iridium phones are unable to receive calls, 
and can only make outbound calls. Erdimi would be happy to make a 
call to Washington, he said, and poloffs agreed to explore the 
possibility in the coming days. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: In the midst of an ongoing Doha peace process and 
upcoming meetings with Special Envoy Gration in Khartoum, the GOS is 
likely opposed to a Chadian rebel offensive at this time.  Hanno's 
abrupt return to Khartoum following the signing of the Doha Accord 
between Sudan and Chad could well be indicative of this.  For his 
part, Hanno denied that the GOS requested his return to Khartoum or 
had passed any messages instructing the Chadian rebels to defer 
offensive action. SLM-MM leader Minni Minnawi told CDA Fernandez 
late on May 5 that Chadian-supported JEM rebel units had just 
attacked his positions in Muzbat and Furawiya in North Darfur so it 
is clear that the border area remains extremely volatile. 
 
FERNANDEZ