VZCZCXRO9813
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1296 1410954
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 210954Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9017
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 0064

UNCLAS KABUL 001296 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: JUNBESH-WAHDAT ALLIANCE CLOSE TO RELUCTANT KARZAI 
ENDORSEMENT 
 
REF: KABUL 991 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Representatives of the majority-Uzbek 
Junbesh-e-Milli party and Hezb-e-Wahdat-e-Mardum faction of 
Hazara leader Haji Mohammed Mohaqqeq say their two-party 
alliance is reluctantly nearing an endorsement of President 
Karzai's re-election campaign.  The two parties agreed last 
month to support a joint candidate from outside of their own 
parties (reftel).  Lower House MP and Junbesh deputy 
Faizullah Zaki told PolOff the two parties would probably 
announce their support for Karzai within the next week.  In 
the meantime, the alliance will continue talks with United 
Front nominee Abdullah Abdullah and former Finance Minister 
Ashraf Ghani in the unlikely event that negotiations with the 
Karzai camp break down. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Junbesh and Wahdat contacts are not excited about 
the Karzai endorsement, but say they cannot afford another 
five years in opposition, locked out of political power.  The 
two parties tried earlier this year to convince Karzai to 
sign an agreement promising each party five seats in the 
Cabinet.  Karzai declined to commit himself to a public 
promise, knowing that neither party was eager to join 
Abdullah's struggling campaign.  Zaki feels the alliance's 
"true home" would be alongside Abdullah, but does not think 
the UF nominee will win more than 15 percent in the first 
round.  Even with a strong Junbesh-Wahdat endorsement, it 
would be difficult for Abdullah to top 35 percent.  If Ghani 
draws less than 10 percent of Karzai's Pashtun support away, 
Zaki calculates a first-round Karzai victory is increasingly 
likely. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Mohaqqeq and Junbesh Lower House MP Shaker Kargar 
have met numerous times in recent weeks to agree to "red 
lines" that the alliance will hold to in case Karzai 
undervalues their endorsement.  Kargar admits the red lines 
have slipped as Karzai's re-election chances grew stronger. 
Neither Junbesh nor Wahdat is now insisting on Foreign 
Affairs, Defense, Interior, or Finance to be one of "their" 
ministries.  Junbesh Chairman Sayed Noorullah has asked his 
deputies leading the negotiations with Karzai to instead 
insist on a "new direction" in the government's 
anti-corruption policies, even if it means walking back from 
their demand for five Cabinet seats. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Given both parties' fierce criticism of the 
government's performance in recent years, a Junbesh-Wahdat 
endorsement of Karzai would be another sign that Afghan 
political elite believe Karzai's re-election to be a safe 
bet.  Political observers also tell us that the fear Karzai 
will retaliate after the election against groups who did not 
support him is also pushing more uncommitted groups into his 
camp.  Reformers like Zaki are disheartened at the thought of 
joining what they view as a failing administration, but view 
their probable support for Karzai as a lifeline to their 
parties' political livelihoods.  "Our country cannot afford 
another five years of Karzai if he governs like he is now, 
but at the same time, we (Junbesh) can't afford another five 
years of being out of power," he said. 
EIKENBERRY