VZCZCXRO8601
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1283 1400454
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 200454Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9002
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 0063

UNCLAS KABUL 001283 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: NO MAJOR PROTESTS EXPECTED OVER CONTINUITY OF 
GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: KABUL 1097 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Afghan politicians remain divided over support for 
continuity of government under President Karzai following the 
May 22 constitutional expiration of his term, but we have not 
seen evidence that opponents will organize protests against 
the government's legality (reftel).  Privately, an 
overwhelming majority of MPs and other politicians tell us 
they recognize the need for Karzai to stay in office until 
the conclusion of the presidential election.  However, many 
opposition leaders are taking a different public position, 
hoping to score points against Karzai by allowing the debate 
to play out or actively criticizing his government's 
legitimacy. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Still, opponents do not appear to have gained much 
traction from their calls to publicly protest the 
government's authority.  The 70 Lower House MPs who signed a 
letter last month demanding Karzai seek a vote of confidence 
from Parliament in order to remain in office have been 
hampered by their failure to suggest an acceptable 
alternative way forward should Karzai decline to accept their 
demands.  Moreover, 150 Lower House MPs have issued a second 
letter supporting the government's legitimacy.  The Supreme 
Court went on record in March consenting to Karzai's interim 
authority. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Various media and opposition politicians continue 
to call for public demonstrations against Karzai's authority, 
but no group has announced plans to organize a major public 
event against the government on or around May 22.  Leaders of 
a new pro-Karzai democratic coalition, the National 
Democratic Participatory Front (NDPF), said the Palace 
discouraged their plans to hold a pro-government rally on May 
¶22.  An NDPF leader said the Palace felt Karzai already had 
broad public support for remaining in office and that a rally 
would only draw the ire of opponents, who could launch a 
counter-rally and provoke violence. 
EIKENBERRY