VZCZCXRO6294
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1257/01 1371350
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171350Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8946
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI PRIORITY 6907
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 6756
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 4476

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001257 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PRM FOR PRM/ECA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PREF UN AF PK
SUBJECT: UNHCR, ICRC STILL WATCHING FOR CROSS-BORDER FLIGHT 
FROM PAKISTAN TO AFGHANISTAN 
 
REF: 08 KABUL 2361 
 
KABUL 00001257  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  The leadership of Kabul-based offices of 
the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and 
the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) shared an 
overview of their planning for potential movement of 
Pakistani refugees to Afghanistan with the Refugee Affairs 
Section.  Both organizations believe it unlikely that a 
significant number of refugees would flee to Afghanistan, but 
they do have contingency plans to respond should new 
movements occur.   In the meantime, Afghan refugees 
repatriating from Pakistan are reporting that insecurity was 
one factor in their decision to return after decades in 
exile, but the main factor was poor economic conditions in 
Pakistan. 
 
 
UNHCR and ICRC on Flight from Pakistan: Watchful Waiting 
 
¶2. (SBU) On May 10 UNHCR's Country Representative for 
Afghanistan, Ewen MacLeod, told RefCoord and a visiting 
Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM) 
delegation that UNHCR is following the situation within 
Pakistan.  In addition to the Pakistani military offensive in 
the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) districts of Lower 
Dir, Buner, and Swat, UNHCR is tracking the impact of 
sectarian violence in Hangu District, further south.  Note: 
Insecurity in Hangu caused cross-border population movements 
in prior years.  In 2008 a non-governmental organization 
(NGO) implementing a health program for PRM on behalf of 
camp-based refugees in Hangu withdrew its personnel from 
camps due to security concerns. 
 
¶3. (SBU) UNHCR is not currently seeing significant numbers of 
Pakistanis moving from NWFP to Afghanistan.  Rather, 
movements appear to be within NWFP, where internally 
displaced persons (IDPs) can find assistance through family, 
government, and/or humanitarian organizations.  (See 
extensive reporting from Islamabad and Peshawar.)  UNHCR is 
closely watching the border situation from its sub-office in 
Kunar Province.  In autumn 2008 approximately 20,000 
Pakistanis, and Afghans who had been living in the Federally 
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), sought refuge in 
Afghanistan from military operations in FATA, reftel. 
MacLeod said Kunar and Nangarhar residents were still 
sheltering 12,000-13,000 Pakistanis.  They have not required 
external support beyond the shelter and winterization 
assistance provided when they first fled across the border. 
MacLeod also mentioned that the newly reinstated UN Office 
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Kabul 
is working off a pre-existing contingency plan for 50,000 
persons and has been checking with partner UN agencies to 
ensure they have stocks to assist with a rapid influx from 
Pakistan. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a separate May 12 conversation, ICRC Head of 
Delegation Reto Stocker echoed UNHCR's comments and predicted 
most conflict-driven movements in Pakistan would be internal. 
 New IDP camps and delivery assistance points to assist those 
fleeing conflict have been set up and widely publicized. 
Should the situation change, the ICRC is prepared to draw 
from its regular operational stocks and could support up to 
3,000 families (approximately 18,000 persons) in eastern 
Afghanistan.  As in the past, the ICRC would rely upon its 
partner network of Afghanistan Red Crescent Society 
volunteers to deliver assistance in Kunar Province and would 
coordinate with the UN on dividing up geographic areas of 
response.  Stocker noted that the ICRC's and UNHCR's 
Afghanistan and Pakistan delegations had all been sharing 
information cross-border for contingency planning. 
 
 
Afghan Refugee Voluntary Repatriation Slow and Deliberate So 
Far 
 
¶5. (SBU) UNHCR is also watching the impact of insecurity and 
IDP movements on the 1.7 million registered Afghan refugees 
in Pakistan.  MacLeod estimated it would take two or three 
weeks to see if the counter-insurgency operations in Pakistan 
result in more rapid repatriation.  UNHCR's records indicate 
114,000 Afghan refugees live in the most affected districts 
of NWFP (Lower Dir, Buner, and Swabi).  UNHCR sub-offices in 
Gardez and Jalalabad are prepared to accept a rapid influx of 
50,000 returnees.  Coordination on unusual movements is being 
done with ICRC in Kunar and with the UNHCR sub-office in 
Peshawar, where refugees present themselves at a voluntary 
 
KABUL 00001257  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
repatriation center (VRC) prior to departing for Afghanistan. 
 
¶6. (SBU) May 11 we visited the Kabul encashment center, where 
135 Afghan families participated in voluntary, assisted 
repatriation.  UNHCR confirmed that returnees - over 12,700 
between April 5 and May 8 - were coming back with their 
personal belongings and families intact.  They had not left 
in haste or involuntarily.  Note: Refugees check out of 
Pakistan at VRCs, and check in to Afghanistan at encashment 
centers.  Between March 1 and May 1, 2008, more than 67,000 
Afghan refugees repatriated from Pakistan with UNHCR 
assistance.  UNHCR's assisted repatriation operations this 
year did not begin until April, and those only through 
Peshawar, with operations through Quetta indefinitely 
suspended.  It is too early to tell whether the decrease rate 
of returns is due to restricted operations or other factors. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Several returnees at the Kabul encashment center 
spoke separately with Kabul Refugee Affairs Specialist.  Most 
said poor economic conditions in Pakistan were the main 
factor in deciding to return.  A few said they feared 
spreading insecurity could eventually reach them in Pakistan. 
  They chose to return sooner rather than later, reckoning 
that the international community would turn its attention to 
the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan and withdraw its support 
for Afghan returnees.  In particular, they wanted to take 
advantage of the cash assistance provided to returnees 
(approximately $100 per person) while they thought it would 
still be offered. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Both UNHCR and ICRC, which regularly deal 
with internal and cross-border movements of people in 
insecure areas, appear well-prepared for a rapid cross-border 
movement should the situation in Pakistan worsen and drive 
flight into Afghanistan.  Kabul Refugee Affairs' Section will 
maintain contact with UNHCR and ICRC on cross-border 
movements and periodically check with the Kabul and Jalalabad 
encashment centers in the coming weeks to track motivations 
for, and voluntariness of, Afghan refugee returns. 
EIKENBERRY