VZCZCXRO0289
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #0993/01 1290258
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 090258Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2645
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0234
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4855
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 1588
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 7191
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 6131
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3917
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK NY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0286
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000993 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREF PK AF EAID PREL PINR PTER ECON
SUBJECT:  UN BRIEFS ON IMPENDING PAKISTAN IDP CRISIS:  URGENT NEEDS 
AND ASSISTANCE GAPS 
 
REF:  A) Islamabad 967  B) Islamabad 940 
 
¶1. (U) This is an action request.  See paras. 9 and 10. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary:  Pakistan faces an imminent humanitarian crisis. 
UN agencies now anticipate a total Pakistan IDP population of 1.3 
million.  This number includes an anticipated outflow of 800,000 
from Dir, Buner and Swat Districts.  Relief agencies and Northwest 
Frontier Province (NWFP) authorities identify the most urgent 
humanitarian needs and assistance funding gaps in food and non-food 
items (NFIs). Post requests Washington instruct USUN to push the UN 
to generate an immediate, revised, emergency appeal to help focus 
and galvanize donors and to send immediately a team to strengthen 
coordination of humanitarian relief efforts.  Post recommends that 
USD 50 million in proposed FY09 supplemental funds pledged in Tokyo 
be provided to the Government in Pakistan for rupee purchase of 
local food stuffs and non-food items.  End summary. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a May 8, OCHA-hosted General Coordination Meeting, held 
at Embassy's request, UN agencies and ICRC laid out estimated 
parameters of Pakistan's imminent humanitarian crisis.  OCHA 
informed donors that in addition to the existing "old" IDP caseload 
of 540,000 (internally displaced who fled from previous military 
operations beginning in August 2008 in Bajaur Agency and Swat), 
humanitarian agencies now expect approximately a total of 800,000 
additional IDPs to be displaced from Buner, Lower Dir and Swat as a 
result of the operations that began in late April and are ongoing. 
This displacement would represent 25 percent of the population of 
these three districts.  This estimate does not include those people 
who may be displaced within these areas and to whom there is 
extremely limited or no humanitarian access. As of May 7, 
approximately 65,000 new caseload IDPs had been registered, of whom 
13 percent had chosen to go to IDP camps.  Current camp capacity is 
meeting current need. However, the humanitarian agencies provided 
dire predictions of gaps in resources available to meet the needs of 
IDPs over the next six months.  These gaps do not include resources 
that would be necessary to enable people to return to devastated 
homes and property. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Current Capacity and Emergency Gaps 
(over the next 6 mos. to address new caseload only) 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
               Assistance 
Sectors        Available for:  Gap    Comment 
-------        -------------   ---    ------- 
 
Shelter and 
Non-Food Items     300,000   500,000  NFI need most 
(NFI)                                 urgent; one-time 
                                      Distribution 
 
Camp Coord.        240,000      0     Rest would 
and Camp Mgmt                         choose to stay 
                                      outside camps. 
 
                                      Contingency camp 
                                      sites available. 
 
 
Protection         800,000       0    IDP registration 
                                      only 
 
Water, Sanitation  135,000   665,000  New resources 
and Hygiene                           necessary 
 
Health             125,000   675,000  Medicines only. 
                                      Also need more 
                                      NGO partners 
 
Nutrition          100,000   700,000  urgent need; 
                                      details below 
 
Education            1,000   159,000  only small prop. 
                                      of current pop. 
                                      served 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00000993  002 OF 002 
 
 
Food               250,000   550,000  note:  six-month 
                                      figures for new 
                                      caseload 
 
Early Recovery         0     800,000 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The World Food Program (WFP) has food items available for 
250,000 new caseload IDPs for six months.  WFP reports that wheat, 
oil and pulses are available for three to four months.  Other food 
items are problematic this month and will be so again after August 
if new resources are not made available. 
 
¶6. (SBU) On May 7, provincial officials informed Consulate Peshawar, 
USAID, USAID/OFDA and Embassy officials of other steps that they are 
taking to meet the needs of newly displaced from Lower Dir, Buner 
and Swat Districts.  NWFP authorities had on May 6 received 500 
million rupees of the 1 billion rupees pledged by the Prime Minister 
for IDPs.  The Provincial Relief Commissioner indicated that 40 
million rupees ($1.75 million) would be used to supplement the food 
basket provided by WFP.  The Ministry of Social Welfare has set up 
reception points where IDPs are registered and can receive health 
care, information services and onward transportation.  The Minister 
of Social Welfare stressed to USG the need for timely delivery of 
relief goods and said that the most urgent needs were NFIs 
(including mosquito nets) and food items. 
 
¶7. (SBU) While the UN and its partners are overwhelmed by the large 
numbers of new arrivals, they are making a concerted effort to 
establish sufficient camp space and speed up the registration 
process for a clearly traumatized population.  Reception centers 
have been set up to receive Swat IDPs near mountain passes (away 
from urban centers where others interested in receiving food/NFIs 
turn up as well).  These centers will also screen out those who wish 
to go to camps and then transport them to the camps before 
registration in order to decrease congestion at reception centers. 
Local authorities are also using banners to increase information as 
to where IDPs should go.  Contingency camp sites have been 
identified for an additional 78,000 IDPs, and sites are being 
readied.  UNHCR announced May 8 that to speed up the registration 
process, 75 new registration points will be set up.  There will be 
one in each union council (a small administrative unit) in each 
district. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Popular perceptions of the conditions and 
treatment of IDPs may well be determinative for sustaining support 
for the campaign against militancy in Malakand.  Reports that IDPs 
are not being provided with adequate food, shelter, or health care 
may quickly sap popular sympathy for the government and military and 
renew calls for "peaceful" solutions to the rising extremism in the 
region.  Thus, ensuring a strong donor effort to address IDP needs 
is central to achieving critical goals related to the fight against 
extremism and militancy.  In addition to the call for enhanced 
multilateral and bilateral donor efforts, Charge wrote to Prime 
Minister Gilani, May 8, to again urge GOP leadership in coordinating 
IDP relief efforts and in communicating clearly to the Pakistani 
people the government's strategy and programs to achieve success. 
End comment. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Action request:  Post requests Washington instruct USUN to 
push UN to generate an immediate, revised, emergency appeal, based 
on the field's new planning assumptions, to help focus and galvanize 
donors.  Post also recommends pushing USUN to strengthen 
coordination of humanitarian relief efforts by sending immediately a 
team, preferably with at least some members committed to deploy for 
at least one year. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Action request:  Post proposes that the USG use USD 50 
million of the USD 400 million FY2009 cash transfer pledged in Tokyo 
to quickly provide the Government of Pakistan the equivalent in 
rupees to support the IDPs.  This sum would enable the GOP at the 
provincial and local level in affected areas to purchase local food 
stuffs and NFI in a timely manner and provide other IDP assistance. 
 
FEIERSTEIN