VZCZCXRO5946
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1179/01 1491442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291442Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2991
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0380
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0491
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 4984
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1733
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7333
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6272
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9507
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3979

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001179 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: ADB WILL CONDUCT A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT; NO 
GOVERNMENT GRANT EQUALS NO ONE GOING HOME 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  In a May 29 meeting with Ambassador, the 
Asia Development Bank (ADB) committed to doing a joint 
damage/reconstruction assessment with the World Bank of the 
conflict-affected areas.  In order to properly conduct such a 
survey, ADB has requested assistance through satellite 
imagery, and Embassy will examine options for this request. 
FATA Secretariat officials reported to Peshawar Principal 
Officer on May 28 that the internally displaced persons 
(IDPs) from Bajaur and Mohmand agencies refuse to leave the 
camps until they receive the PKR 25,000 grant as promised 
under the terms of the Prime Minister's National Response 
Plan.  The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees 
(UNHCR) cite government sources as reporting that the total 
number of IDPs at approximately 3 million to date, but all 
acknowledge that fraud and duplication in registration have 
resulted in inflated numbers.  The Pakistan military 
spokesman announced that operations in Swat continue as 
Mingora is slowly being fully secured, and in a May 28 raid, 
the military recovered 12 UN-registered vehicles and a 
weapons cache.  UN cluster members indicated that 
coordination remains an issue, particularly camp management 
and cluster levels.  President Asif Zardari visited an IDP 
camp in Swabi on May 29.  End Summary. 
 
ASIA DEVELOPMENT BANK DAMAGE ASSESSMENT 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Ambassador met with Asia Development Bank (ADB) 
Country Director Rune Stroem on May 28 to discuss ABD's 
participation in damage and reconstruction assessments in 
Malakand Division and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas 
(FATA).  Stroem reported that ADB and the World Bank received 
a request for ABD and the World Bank to conduct this 
assessment, and both agencies agreed.  Stroem noted that the 
scope of their assessment will be to look at economic 
revitalization of the conflict-affected areas, but they will 
delink any examination of the civil administration from the 
economic survey because they believe that by including the 
civil administration for purposes of the assessment that its 
release will be slowed tremendously.  Within the assessment, 
the ADB also plans to look at ways to build capacity through 
training officials on how to respond better to disasters and 
other crises of this nature.  Stroem made clear that the ADB 
cannot commit its resources for an indefinite period of time, 
and, therefore, the GOP will need to learn how to control 
these assessment and reconstruction efforts in the future. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Noting that the Embassy plans to send an assessment 
team into Buner on June 2 to examine law enforcement and 
infrastructure needs, Stroem requested that the Embassy and 
ADB teams meet regularly to compare notes and information for 
clearer damage assessments.  Stroem also requested assistance 
in procuring satellite imagery to gain better understanding 
of the scope of damage.  Embassy will examin options for this 
request. 
 
CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION COMMITTEE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) On May 28, Peshawar Principal Officer and other 
Consulate and Embassy personnel attended the monthly 
Civil-Military Cooperation Committee (CMCC) that brings 
together representatives from the FATA Secretariat, Frontier 
Corps (FC), and various political agents throughout the FATA. 
 According to Habibullah Khan, the Additional Chief Secretary 
of the FATA Secretariat, plans are in place to fully clear 
Bajaur and Mohmand agencies of remaining militants in order 
to bring the internally displaced persons (IDPs) home. No 
time frame for the operations was provided.  Khan reported 
that he had staff canvassing every IDP camp to find the 
Bajaur and Mohmand IDPs and to talk with them about 
returning; however, most IDP families are refusing to go back 
until they have the promised PKR 25,000 (approximately USD 
300) in hand, as promised under the Prime Minister's National 
Response Plan.  Additionally, Khan noted that the lack of 
donor coordination among the international community, 
including the UN, was making his planning for IDP returns 
complicated and difficult. (Note: Khan reported that he 
continues to receive several requests from various donors, 
asking for a return plan and promising money, but he is 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001179  002 OF 004 
 
 
confused as to what, if anything, is actually being done and 
if these money pipelines are actually being created. End 
note.) Embassy will continue to work with the FATA 
Secretariat and the UN agencies in Pakistan to develop one, 
streamlined voice in regard to donor coordination. 
 
UNHCR-PESHAWAR MEETING 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees 
(UNHCR) Peshawar told Peshawar Principal Officer on May 28 
that the newly registered IDP population stands at 2.5 
million (314,000 families) with "transit" and "spontaneous" 
camps still to be accounted for. (Note: With the old case 
load of 550,000 IDPs, this estimate would put the UNHCR total 
IDP population at over 3 million IDPs. End note.)  UNHCR 
Peshawar is increasingly focusing on IDP populations in these 
unofficial camps and schools. Numbers of civilians unable to 
leave Swat or Dir districts remains unclear.  Bajaur and 
Mohmand IDPs, according to UNHCR Peshawar, are returning, 
which has freed up space at Jalozai camp (Nowshera district). 
 Unexploded ordnance was found and cleared in an area of the 
camp where Afghan refugees had once lived.  There are 
sufficient food supplies, but IDPs are angry over being 
forced to flee without their possessions.  UNHCR Peshawar is 
exploring the procurement of individual stoves but must 
identify an appropriate fuel source.  Communal kitchens have 
been rejected by IDPs because of tensions over mixing with 
strangers.  UNHCR is helping Dera Ismail Khan (DI Khan) 
District Coordination Officer identify camp sites for 
outflows from South Waziristan.  Numbers are conflicting, but 
most of those leaving now appear to have winter homes in DI 
Khan. 
 
MILITARY UPDATE 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Militants continue to defend the main town of Mingora 
and nearby locales.  A number of reports indicate that 
Baitullah Mehsud and other militants in North and South 
Waziristan are preparing to oppose an army offensive.  There 
are reports of plans to attack police patrols, police posts, 
and container yards along the Ring Road in Peshawar.  Taliban 
militants continue to fire mortars and rockets at military 
posts in the Waziristans.  Militant forces are reportedly 
massing in Mohmand Agency (FATA) to interdict lines of 
communication and attack FC garrisons.  Militants continue to 
operate in Lower Dir and have the ability to mass for planned 
assaults against government positions. 
 
¶7. (U) According to the Director General for Inter-Services 
Public Relations (ISPR), Major General Athar Abbas, reported 
that in the last 24 hours, 28 militants were killed and seven 
arrested in various areas of Swat while 5 soldiers and 2 
civilians were injured. 
 
¶8. (U) ISPR also reports that security forces continued with 
cordon and search operations and successfully cleared the 
stronghold of militants at Peochar village, Swat.  Pakistan 
security forces destroyed militant hideouts, including one 
madrassah and recovered 12 UN registered vehicles.  Four 
tunnels were reportedly discovered with ration items that had 
been stolen from relief agencies and a cache of weapons. 
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS 
--------------------------- 
 
Numbers: 
 
¶9. (U) Embassy continues to receive differing numbers on the 
IDP totals, but new and old caseload totals average still at 
about 3 million total IDPs.  Embassy contacts report that 
various agency and district officials are encouraging their 
constituents, whether conflict affected or not, to register 
as IDPs for the purposes of receiving the free relief items 
and the PKR 25,000 grant from the GOP.  Additionally, reports 
indicate that husband and wives are separately registering 
their family at different registration hubs in order to 
receive double benefits.  The National Database and 
Registration Authority (NADRA) assured the Embassy that it 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001179  003 OF 004 
 
 
would have the registration lists scrubbed for duplications 
by next week and expect that once these lists are scrubbed 
that the overall total will decrease by 20 to 30 percent. 
 
Return Package Grant and Disbursement: 
 
¶10. (SBU) The GOP has allocated PKR 8 billion (approximately 
USD 100 million) out of the supplementary budget grants in 
order to meet its commitment to pay PKR 25,000 (approximately 
USD 300) to each IDP family. Although there are plans to 
disburse this money to IDPs via so-called "smart cards" 
(essentially microchipped versions of the traditional 
NADRA-issued ID cards that can be programmed for a variety of 
electronic banking and other services), their program is 
still several weeks, if not months, away from being fully 
operational.  On May 22, after months of preparation, a small 
pilot project in Kacha Gari camp in Peshawar distributed 
smart cards to 400 IDP families.  It is likely the GOP will 
turn to more traditional means of disbursement to process 
these payments in a timely manner. 
 
Humanitarian Support: 
 
¶10. (U) The USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) 
urged NGOs to focus on meeting the immediate humanitarian 
needs, particularly of the IDPs outside the formal camps. 
The DART encouraged NGOs to coordinate through the UN cluster 
system, agree on respective geographic focus, and work with 
local NGOs and local authorities. 
 
¶11. (U) NGOs discussed various strategies of providing 
support to IDPs through cash or voucher distribution 
programs.  One NGO noted that such programming is very tricky 
to implement properly without substantial previous 
experience.  Another NGO has begun a cash distribution 
program for both IDPs and host families through an agreement 
with a local bank.  A third NGO is handing out 3,000 
Pakistani rupees along with partial non-food item kits in 
Mardan district, but indicated that IDPs preferred full NFI 
kits without cash in Swabi district, perhaps as markets there 
are not functioning quite as well as in Mardan and other 
districts. 
 
Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH): 
 
¶12. (U) At the May 28 UN WASH cluster meeting, the UN 
Children's Fund (UNICEF) noted that the organization is 
trying to improve information management by expanding the UN 
website and posting additional cluster information.  The 
website is available at http://unportal.un.org.pk. 
 
¶13. (U) Cluster members indicated that coordination remains 
an issue, particularly camp management and cluster levels. 
 
¶14. (U) Organizations participating in the cluster discussed 
how to best prioritize WASH projects.  UNICEF circulated 
guidance for comment that included the following criteria: 
The cluster should prioritize WASH assistance to formal and 
spontaneous camps with more than 100 IDP families, with the 
goal of initially providing assistance to meet 50 percent of 
SPHERE indicators for key WASH services and subsequently 
updated to fully meet SPHERE standards.  The next priority 
would be IDPs in schools with little or no functioning 
infrastructure, with the same initial and subsequent goals. 
The third priority would be to target IDPs living with host 
families with acute WASH-related vulnerabilities, as 
determined by additional assessments. 
 
Access to Food/Non-food Support: 
 
¶15. (U) The World Food Program (WFP) reported that 52 percent 
of the registered IDPs was accessing food and NFIs at the 10 
distribution hubs in Mardan district.  WFP is currently 
assessing 8 additional locations to improve service delivery 
and increase the coverage percentage.  WFP noted that the 
access percentage was higher in neighboring districts, 
including Swabi (90 percent), Nowshera (85 percent), and 
Peshawar (80 percent). 
 
POLITICAL UPDATE 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001179  004 OF 004 
 
 
---------------- 
 
¶16. (U) Media reports that President Asif Ali Zardari visited 
an IDP camp in Swabi district. 
 
¶17. (U) Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani announced that the 
GOP had developed an "exit plan" for the Malakand operations, 
which included hiring recently retired Army personnel to 
bolster the depleted and demoralized police force.  The 
operational commander in Mingora, Brigadier Tabhir Hameed, 
warned that after Swar was secured, the Taliban could 
re-enter the area. Hameed said that cooperation by civilians 
was essential to prevent a return of the Taliban. 
 
¶18. (U) In Peshawar, hundreds of students affiliated with a 
student organization linked to Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), marched 
to demand an end to the military offensive in Malakand.  The 
student leader, Atiqur Rahman, alleged that the war in 
Malakand was launched on "American dictation."  He urged the 
youth to stand against the U.S. policies and protect their 
land.  Sirajul Haq, JI's NWFP provincial chief, said those 
who picked up arms should use them against the U.S. in 
Afghanistan.  Haq condemned the Awami National Party (ANP) 
and Pakistan People's Party (PPP), stating that the "people 
of Governor Ghani and demanding repatriation of IDPs to their 
homes, the leader of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) Maulana 
Gul Naseeb also demanded the government to halt ongoing 
military operations in Malakand. 
 
¶19. (U) NWFP Senior Minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour (affiliated 
with the ANP) gave a speech at Shah Mansoor IDP camp in 
Swabi, attacking JI for its opposition to the Malakand 
operation.  Bilour stated that this party had always played a 
negative role, contributing to the killing of thousands of 
security personnel and the millions suffering under the 
current IDP crisis. 
 
¶20. (U) As Gilani urged Pakistanis to not abuse IDP supplies, 
reports circulated widely in Peshawar that IDPs from Swat 
were allegedly selling relief goods provided to them by the 
World Food Program.  Police were investigating reports that 
dealers purchase relief goods at cheap rates and then 
transfer thrm to warehouses for sale on the open market. 
NWFP Inspector General Police Malik Naveed Khan said 50 
suspects had been arrested from relief camps set up for IDPs 
from Malakand.  Khan urged people to cooperate with law 
enforcement agencies to apprehend extremist elements. 
 
¶21. (U) In Swabi district, a mob of IDPs, reportedly angered 
by the government closure of 12 out of 15 registration 
points, swarmed the only remaining registration and food 
distribution point in Kernal Sher Killay.  The protest 
triggered the police to launch a baton charge at the IDPs. 
PATTERSON