VZCZCXRO3942
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1151/01 1471550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271550Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2935
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0357
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0456
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 4962
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1708
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7308
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6247
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9486
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3971

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001151 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: UN IDP CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN; MINGORA 
OPERATIONS CONTINUE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  On May 27, Ambassador met with 
representatives from the UN Office for the Coordination of 
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to discuss OCHA's IDP contingency 
plan for the Waziristans, which will cost an additional USD 
150 million over the recently launched revised UN appeal. 
OCHA expects up to 700,000 to flee the Waziristans when 
military operations begin there.  The Pakistan military 
report that they have secured half of Mingora (Swat 
district), as well as approximately 90 percent of Buner 
district. 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting with Peshawar Principal Officer, 
Country Director for the International Crisis Group reported 
that those IDPs living with host families are currently 
suffering the most, and the way to ease the suffering is to 
remove the "middle men" (including local nazims) when 
distributing food, rehabilitation materials, and cash. USAID, 
the UN agencies and other humanitarian support groups 
continue to provide relief to the displaced populations both 
in and out of the camps.  End Summary. 
 
OCHA CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN OPERATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) ON May 27, Ambassador met with Rashid Khalikov, the 
New York Director of the UN Office for the Coordination of 
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and Manuel Bessler, the Pakistan 
OCHA Director, to discuss OCHA's contingency plan for North 
and South Waziristan agencies within the Federally 
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).  With the approximate 
overall population of the Waziristans at 900,000 residents, 
both GOP and OCHA officials estimate that approximately 
700,000 residents will leave the agencies once the Pakistan 
military operations commence. In preparation for the 
displacement, OCHA will likely ask for an additional USD 150 
million on top of its revised UN Humanitarian Response Plan 
for over USD 500 million.  This additional money will help 
support the OCHA contingency plan, which will address four 
clusters: food, shelter, water, and health.  OCHA expects to 
have the GOP's contingency plan by the beginning of next 
week. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Khalikov believes strongly that the displacement 
from the Waziristans will be different than the displacement 
in Malakand Division in that the needs of the people from the 
Waziristans will be much higher.  According to his estimates, 
he believes that 10 percent of the Waziristan internally 
displaced persons (IDPs) will move into UN-funded camps; 60 
percent will move in with host families and only need a 
portion of the assistance; and the remaining 30 percent will 
move in with host families that will be so impoverished that 
they too will need the full benefits a typical UN-funded IDP 
camp would provide.  OCHA sees this remaining 30 percent as 
the most troublesome and the biggest difference between this 
displacement and the previous displacement in Malakand. 
 
MILITARY UPDATE 
--------------- 
 
SWAT District, Malakand Division, Northwest Frontier Province 
(NWFP) 
 
¶5. (U) In his daily press briefing on May 26, Major General 
Athar Abbas, the military's Inter-services Public Relations 
(DG ISPR) spokesman, reported that the operations in Swat 
were going well and Pakistan troops had secured control of 
half of the district's main city of Mingora through a series 
of house-to-house searches.  Abbas also reported that in the 
various operations within Swat to date, 29 militants and six 
soldiers had been killed; another 14 militants had been 
captured; and 11 soldiers had been injured.  Abbas announced 
that at this time, the Pakistan military had defused four 
improvised explosive devices (IEDs), regained control of the 
Malakand-Qambar-Mingora and the Kanju-Kabal roads, and 
continued in operations to secure Kabal city. 
 
BUNER District, Malakand Division, NWFP 
 
¶6. (U) DG ISPR also reported on May 26 that the Pakistan 
military had cleared 90 percent of Buner, but militants 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001151  002 OF 004 
 
 
remained at Pir Baba where the military would not engage out 
of respect for the location's shrine to the Sufi saint. 
 
SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Agency, FATA 
 
¶7. (U) According to press reports, ground forces backed by 
tanks and helicopters moved into South Waziristan on May 26 
from neighboring Frontier Region Jandola and engaged in 
initial operations.  During the fighting, reports indicate 
that six militants were killed and 12 other militants and 
three security personnel were injured.  The same reports note 
that a 15-member jirga of Mehsud tribesmen called upon the 
South Waziristan Political Agent to criticize the operations, 
saying that they were in talks with militant leaders. 
 
BAJAUR Agency, FATA 
 
¶8. (U) On May 26, the Bajaur political administration 
announced that the Mamond tribesmen had six days to vacate 
the area before military operations would be starting again 
to root out militants.  According to Bajaur Political Agent, 
Sharirullah Khan, he was left with no choice but to call for 
military action in Bajaur when the tribal elders failed to 
convince the Tabilan to stop fighting the security forces 
during their three-day talks. 
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS 
--------------------------- 
 
"Cut Out the Middle Man for Relief Distribution" - ICG: 
 
¶9. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting with Principal Officer Peshawar, 
Samina Ahmed, Country Director of the International Crisis 
Group (ICG), reported that IDP camps are in good shape and 
those living there are receiving the support they need.  It 
is those IDPs living with host families that are suffering 
the most in that the relief being provided (i.e., food and 
materials) is insufficient for two major reasons: first, they 
are not paying the bills and other expenses of the host 
families, and second, the assistance is not getting the 
families back to their homes.  Recognizing that the current 
food distributions are adequate at this time, Ahmed's 
solution for the long term is for the GOP and the 
international donor community to focus IDP assistance in 
terms of quick cash and not in terms of food distributions 
and rehabilitation materials. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In Ahmed's view, the most efficient and transparent 
method for distributing quick cash to IDPs and host families 
is to expand the capabilities of the "smart cards" being 
issued to IDPs by the National Database and Registration 
Authority (NADRA).  In this expansion, the cards could not 
only contain biometric information about the cardholder and 
family for purposes of benefits, but they could be used as 
debit/bank cards as well, allowing the cardholder to have 
faster access to the monetary benefits, as promised under the 
Benazir Income Support Fund and other support mechanisms. 
Ahmed believes that by cutting out the middle man, such as 
local nazims and other layers of bureaucracy, for 
distribution of food/materials and using the smart cards for 
cash distribution, the chances of theft and fraud are reduced 
significantly while accountability and transparency is 
increased through the oversight of NADRA.  (Note. The ICG 
plans to release a report on IDPs and their needs in the near 
future, date unknown. ICG will then brief the report in 
Washington. End note.) 
 
Humanitarian Situation: 
 
¶11. (U) Beyond few reports of possible, unconfirmed Taliban 
or militant infiltration into the camps, Embassy has received 
no reports of law enforcement problems or criminal activity 
within the IDP camps. 
 
Logistics and Emergency Relief Supplies: 
 
¶12. (U) OFDA has provided nearly USD 4.9 million to the 
International Organization for Migration (IOM) for the 
provision of emergency relief commodities, including 30,000 
non-food item kits (NFIs).  IOM has ordered all of the relief 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001151  003 OF 004 
 
 
supplies, which will be consigned to UNHCR for distribution 
to a contracting issue at UNHCR.  To date, UNHCR has received 
approximately 10,000 of the 30,000 funded kits, which either 
have been distributed or are being prepared for distribution 
to IDPs. The remaining 20,000 kits are in the logistics 
pipeline. 
 
¶13. (U) Approximately 1,000 USAID/Pakistan-provided electric 
fans, as well as 500 fans provided by other donors, are 
beginning to reach IDP camps in Mardan. 
 
¶14. (U) As of May 26, WFP and other UN agencies have 
established 32 humanitarian hubs for food and NFI 
distribution, including 23 hubs for the IDPs outside the 
camps. 
 
Food Assistance: 
 
¶15. (U) As of May 26, WFP reported delivering 45,000 MT of 
food assistance to approximately 2.9 million people, 
including approximately 400,000 people in camps and 
approximately 2.5 million people outside of camps.  WFP has 
distributed dry ration which includes wheat flour, pulses, 
vegetable oil, tea, salt and sugar. 
 
¶16. (U) A humanitarian NGO informed the DART on May 26 that 
assessment teams had observed IDPs living outside of camps in 
Mardab District selling WFP-provided dry food rations in 
local markets, as the IDPs were receiving cooked meals from 
host communities and needed to purchase household and hygiene 
supplies. 
 
Health and Nutrition: 
 
¶17. (U) The U.N. Health cluster reported that humanitarian 
organizations have established 16 mobile health teams and 43 
static health facilities in IDP camps as of May 26.  To date, 
cluster members have responded to 76 disease alerts and 24 
notifications of potential outbreaks through the U.N. World 
Health Organization (WHO) - who managed Disease Early Warning 
System.  USAID/OFDA is planning to provide additional support 
to WHO for the disease surveillance system. 
 
¶18. (U) The U.N. Nutrition cluster noted that humanitarian 
organizations had treated nearly 6,500 children and more than 
2,000 pregnant and lactating women in IDP camps, as well as 
providing therapeutic food, as of May 26. 
 
Education: 
 
¶19. (U) The NWFP Minister of Education reported that as many 
as 1,500 schools in the province are currently serving as 
shelter for IDPs, a much higher estimate than the previous 
UN-provided figure of 500 schools.  The Minister indicated 
that the schools would need to be repaired once the IDPs 
leave before instruction could resume and requested USAID 
consider future renovation assistance. 
 
¶20. (U) The UN Education cluster reported that UN agencies 
and NGOs have set up 28 primary schools in the IDP camps 
serving 10,000 children.  Approximately 4,500 displaced 
children outside the camps have been enrolled in formal 
classes meeting in the evenings. 
 
Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH): 
 
¶21. (U) On May 26, The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) told DART 
staff that there were no acute WASH issues in any official 
camps. 
 
¶22. (U) The UN WASH cluster members are continuing to provide 
approximately 4.1 million liters of safe drinking water to 
150,000 IDPs in camps each day.  Organizations participating 
in the WASH cluster have constructed 6,400 latrines and 3,000 
bathing spaces to date. 
 
Pakistan Military Efforts: 
 
¶23. (U) According to Abbas, five relief trucks of army 
rations had been sent to various IDP camps while four trucks 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001151  004 OF 004 
 
 
of relief goods had been sent for the stranded people of 
Mingora, with six more expected to go soon. 
 
IDPs in Karachi: 
 
¶24. (U) On May 26, the Sindh High Court issued notices to the 
federal and provincial attorneys to seek accommodations for 
approximately 600 IDP families from Swat and Malakand. (Note: 
According to press reports, approximately 12,000 IDPs reached 
Karachi between May 23 and 25 from different areas within the 
NWFP, and in response, the Sindh government visited various 
sites on the Super and National highways to establish relief 
camps. End note.) 
 
POLITICAL UPDATE 
---------------- 
 
¶25. (U) According to press reports, Prime Minister Yousef 
Gilani on May 26 announced to a "Kissan" farmers' convention 
that he was declaring the Malakand Division as a 
"calamity-hit area," a move whose primary significance lay in 
the fact that it would waive federal taxes on land revenue. 
Gilani also stated that government authorities would manage 
the harvesting and marketing of the crops of those IDPs who 
remained outside of conflict zones in the Malakand Division 
and would keep the revenues from the sales of these items in 
trust prior to the return of the farmers. 
 
¶26. (U) Press also reported that the NWFP government was on 
the verge of finalizing a long-term comprehensive development 
strategy, whose cost would be more than PKR 550 billion 
(approximately USD 620 million) over the next six years. 
(Note: As the NWFP government has already diverted all FY09 & 
FY10 development spending to IDP relief and expects a greatly 
increased public security expenditure against flat or 
declining provincial government revenue over the next several 
years, it is unclear whether this strategy will actually be 
implemented. End note.) 
 
¶27. (SBU) In separate meetings with U.S. Consulate Peshawar 
staff on May 27, the NWFP Ministers of Environment and 
Commerce requested U.S. assistance in funding vocational 
education in the Malakand Division.  Environment Minister 
Wajid Ali Khan, a member of a major landholding family from 
Mingora, told Consulate that such assistance would be the 
"single most important U.S. gift" in suppressing militancy in 
the Malakand Division.  The Commerce Minister noted that 
without extensive vocational training, Malakand residents 
would be unable to benefit from restored peace and, in 
particular, from Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) at 
such time as enabling legislation is passed by the U.S. 
Congress. 
PATTERSON