VZCZCXRO2714
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1140/01 1461350
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261350Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2910
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0345
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0437
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 4950
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1696
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7296
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6235
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9474
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3963

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ISLAMABAD 001140 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: PAKMIL CONTINUES TO MAKE GAINS IN SWAT; UN PUTS 
IDP NUMBERS AT 2.85 MILLION 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Pakistan military tightened control 
around Mingora on May 25 and 26. Swat Taliban leader Maulana 
Fazullah announced that his men would no longer fight in 
Mingora and pleaded for those displaced to return to the 
city.  However, Pakistan military officials saw this 
announcement as a ploy to convince the displaced to return to 
provide better cover to their militancy operations.  U.S. 
Consulate Peshawar contacts report that militant presence is 
increasing in the northern Swat areas, Lower Dir and Shangla 
while in Buner, the Frontier Corps is preparing for 
mopping-up sweeps. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The UN High Commission of Refugees reports the total 
number of internally displaced persons to be approximately 
2.85 million; however, these numbers are likely to decrease 
by 20 to 30 percent once registration lists are cleaned and 
consolidated, expected to be completed by the end of May.  UN 
agencies report that approximately 500 schools within the 
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) are currently being used 
to house the displaced families, and the agencies are looking 
at ways to better assist this portion of the population as 
well.  In a press conference on May 25, the Benazir Income 
Support Program Chairperson announced that as many as 25,000 
IDP families from Swat will be issued "Benazir Smart Cards," 
which will entitle these families to free health facilities, 
life insurance, and vocational training for one family 
member. A riot broke out at a Mardan district IDP camp 
following the visit of Pakistan Muslim League leadership. 
End Summary. 
 
MILITARY UPDATE 
--------------- 
 
SWAT District, Malakand Division, Northwest Frontier Province 
(NWFP): 
 
¶3. (U) On May 25, the Pakistan Army reported that they had 
secured Maalam Jabba, the former ski resort and a militant 
stronghold.  Major General Athar Abbas, spokesman for the 
Army's Inter-services Public Relations office (DG ISPR), 
noted that Maalam Jabba was on the main line of communication 
between Swat and Manserha District, NWFP, and was being used 
as a training center and logistics base for militants. 
During the fighting, the Army reportedly killed four 
militants; six soldiers were injured and eight militants were 
arrested.  Abbas also reported that Pakistan troops continued 
operations in the Peochar valley and neighboring areas where 
Taliban from Mingora are fleeing. 
 
¶4. (U) In a press conference, Abbas noted once again that the 
operations in Swat, especially in the main city of Mingora, 
will be "a little slow" and may take "seven to ten days" to 
fully clear the city of militants.  He reported that the slow 
progress was a combination of fighting while attempting to 
avoid civilian casualties and clearing the improvised 
explosive devices (IEDs) that the Army is encountering in 
Mingora proper. 
 
¶5. (U) Following the capture of Maalam Jabba, General Tariq 
Majid, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a visiting 
CODEL on May 26 that Pakistan military troops secured 
strategic peaks around Saidu Sharif, the Swat district 
capital and south of Mingora, allowing for tighter control 
around the Mingora area. 
 
¶6. (U) In a May 25 interview, Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan 
announced that the Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah has 
directed his men to stop battling within Mingora and 
surrounding areas.  According to Khan, Fazlullah believes 
that the fighting is only causing undue hardships on the 
innocent civilian population of Mingora and he will not 
create any further hurdles for the internally displaced 
persons (IDPs) to return to their homes there. Khan noted, 
however, that this appeal for the IDPs to return was not to 
be interpreted as a ceasefire in that the Taliban will remain 
in the main city to "enforce shari'a law." Abbas dismissed 
these claims as a "ploy" by the militants to use the 
returning residents as a cover in their attempts to better 
blend in with the local population. 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001140  002 OF 005 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Non-governmental organization (NGO) contacts with 
U.S. Consulate Peshawar report that there is an increasing 
militant presence in Kalam city in the Kohistani area of 
northern Swat. 
 
SHANGLA District, Malakand Division, NWFP: 
 
¶8. (U) Local media report that militants from Buner and Swat 
on May 25 took over several key locations, including a 
government house, and a portion of the highway in the Poran 
area of Shangla district that links Shangla to Swat.  Press 
indicates that a curfew has been in place and communication 
lines disrupted for the past five days in Shangla to allow 
for movement of security forces. 
 
LOWER DIR District, Malakand Division, NWFP: 
 
¶9. (U) Local press reports that on May 25 the Kalpani check 
post in Lower Dir was attacked, and in the incursion, two 
security personnel and 20 militants were killed. 
 
¶10. (SBU) On May 26, Consulate Peshawar contacts within the 
local district government said that continued militant 
activity in the Maidan area (home to Maulana Sufi Mohammad) 
is leading the district government to contemplate a curfew on 
that area yet again in preparation for possible follow-on 
operations in that area by the Frontier Corps (FC). 
 
BUNER District, Malakand Division, NWFP 
 
¶11. (SBU) In Buner, a contact within the local government 
confirmed with Consulate Peshawar on May 26 that while 
militants remained in the Pir Baba area and other northern 
parts of the district, no organized resistance remains.  The 
Frontier Corps (FC) is reforming local lashkar forces 
(neighborhood watch groups) to conduct "mopping-up" sweeps. 
 
SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Agency, Federally Administered Tribal Areas 
(FATA): 
 
¶12. (U) On May 25, security forces moved tanks and heavy 
artillery into Frontier Region Tank, adjacent to South 
Waziristan.  Additional reports indicate that on May 26, 
troops entered the Chak Malai area of South Waziristan 
without resistance. 
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS 
--------------------------- 
 
Statistics: 
 
¶13. (U) According to the UN High Commission for Refugees 
(UNHCR) on May 26, the overall number of registered IDPs, 
including both the old and new caseloads, is approximately 
2.85 million IDPs.  (Note: UN and GOP authorities consider 
the influx of IDPs from Swat, Buner, and Lower Dir since May 
2 to be the "new caseload" as opposed to the 550,000 IDPs 
from the earlier Bajaur and Mohmand operations. End note.) 
 
¶14. (U) Before the National Assembly Standing Committee on 
Interior on May 25, Interior Ministry Joint Secretary 
Shahidullah Beg reported that there are 26 relief camps 
currently operating in the NWFP, with 338,422 IDPs living in 
them, with another approximately 2.6 million IDPs living 
outside the camps with host families.  According to GOP 
numbers, this brought the current IDP population to over 2.9 
million IDPs.  Additionally, the NWFP government has deployed 
Frontier Corps and police assets to the camps for security 
purposes and established over 80 registration points 
throughout Mardan, Swabi, Charsadda, Nowshera, Kohat, and 
Peshawar districts. 
 
¶15. (U) The overall number of IDPs is likely to decrease by 
20 to 30 percent once the National Database and Registration 
Authority (NADRA) completes the consolidation of the various 
registration lists, which is expected by the end of May. 
This consolidation is likely to remove many duplicate 
registrations that are known to have taken place in the 
overall registration process. 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001140  003 OF 005 
 
 
Return of IDPs: 
 
¶16. (SBU) In a May 25 meeting with RefCoord and USAID 
Disaster Assistance Relief Team (DART) Leader, the UNHCR 
confirmed that it has not been facilitating the IDP returns 
announced by Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmad with the Special 
Support Group (SSG).  UNHCR staff believes that IDPs are 
largely returning temporarily in order to harvest crops and 
that the IDPs themselves are in the best position to 
determine whether it is safe to return.  IDPs are free to 
take their UNHCR-provided tents and non-food items kits 
(NFIs) if they return home.  The NWFP government is not 
providing UNHCR data on those returning, and, therefore, the 
absence of returned IDPs is only evident, whether inside or 
outside the camps, when they do not arrive for food 
distributions.  UNHCR does not plan to de-register IDPs 
unless they fail to arrive for two consecutive (monthly) 
distributions of dry rations.  UNHCR staff said they had no 
way to assess the realities of GOP estimates of returnees 
from outside the camps, but the staff did note that they had 
observed returns to Bajaur agency from the Jalozai camps. 
UNHCR posited that IDPs will not permanently return until 
after they receive the GOP's promised PKR 25,000/family. 
(Note: UNHCR reports that IDP are also supposed to receive 
compensation for loss of family members killed in the 
conflict. End note.) (septel) 
 
Humanitarian Situation: 
 
¶17. (U) The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian 
Affairs (OCHA) reported on May 26 that a number of IDPs 
residing outside the camps are currently occupying 
approximately 500 schools in the NWFP, where the conditions 
are reportedly overcrowded.  The UN Water, Sanitation, and 
Hygiene (WASH) cluster chairman in Swabi district reported 
that all government schools in the district are currently 
sheltering IDPs and noted the need for additional WASH 
support.  (Note: USAID's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster 
Assistance (OFDA) is providing WASH support to displaced 
populations, including individuals in host communities, 
schools, and other facilities, through the UN Children's Fund 
(UNICEF) and humanitarian NGOs. End note.) 
 
¶18. (U) OCHA noted the importance of support for families 
hosting IDPs, particularly the families that have been 
hosting families displaced since the previous year.  OCHA 
also emphasized the importance of assisting populations that 
have stayed behind in the conflict areas once assessments can 
be conducted, particularly for the elderly, sick and 
disabled.  UN Habitat, which OFDA is supporting in the 
shelter sector, reported that distributions of 5,000 tents to 
alleviate IDP overcrowding in host communities in Mardan 
district began on May 25. 
 
¶19. (SBU) Following a May 25 meeting with Nadeem, OCHA 
reported that security conditions in Buner district, 
particularly in the south, are improving enough to permit an 
assessment of the damage in the near future.  The UN is 
planning to conduct a multi-agency needs assessment of 
populations that stayed behind and damage assessment of 
infrastructure needed to facilitate IDP returns.  The UN is 
also planning to conduct a similar assessment in Bajaur 
agency in the near future, date yet to be confirmed. 
 
Humanitarian Coordination: 
 
¶20. (U) UN agencies are increasing staffing in response to 
the new displacement.  OCHA is adding two international field 
officers soon (date unknown) while UNHCR has added 14 
additional international staff for operational support in the 
past week.  The UN Department of Safety and Security is 
bringing an analyst to Pakistan to provide additional 
security information to the entire humanitarian community. 
 
¶21. (U) The UN Shelter cluster met during the week of May 18, 
and it focused primarily on camp issues, with limited 
discussion of host family needs and planning for IDP returns. 
 In discussions with the DART, NGOs have highlighted the 
importance of also providing shelter assistance for some IDPs 
living in host communities, such as them living in household 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001140  004 OF 005 
 
 
courtyards. 
 
Humanitarian Assistance: 
 
¶22. (U) In a press conference on May 25, Benazir Income 
Support Program Chairperson Farzana Raja announced that as 
many as 25,000 IDP families from Swat will be issued "Benazir 
Smart Cards," which will entitle these families to free 
health facilities, life insurance, and vocational training 
for one family member.  The card holders were also to receive 
a monthly stipend of PKR 1000 (approximately USD 12). She 
also noted that over 500 displaced women in Peshawar had 
already received the cards and expected to have 3.5 million 
families, including IDP families, to benefit from this 
program by the end of June.  (Note: To ensure transparency 
and accuracy, Raja noted that the cards would have the 
recipient's fingerprint, instead of photo, and a "poverty 
score card" that would give details of the recipient's 
financial status. End note.) 
 
¶23. (U) On May 23, the Embassy's Narcotics Affairs Section 
provided a generator set for the FC sub-headquarters office 
in Daggar, the district capital of Buner.  The electrical 
grid and tube wells for providing potable water had been 
previously damaged by militant activity.  The FC offices, the 
troop accommodation area, the District Commissioner's Office, 
and the Civil Colony within Buner are now receiving fresh 
drinking water due to the generator set.  (Note: FC troops in 
Buner have been reporting a high level of intestinal ailments 
due to the dirty drinking water. End note.) 
 
Health and WASH: 
 
¶24. (U) The UN World Health Organization (WHO) reported on 
May 26 that the Disease Early Warning System has been 
established in Swabi District, and reporting commenced 
immediately. 
 
¶25. (U) UNICEF staff noted that the recent displacement 
offered an opportunity for polio vaccination teams to reach 
children previously inaccessible due to militant opposition 
to vaccination campaigns.  To date, UNICEF teams have 
vaccinated 15,000 children in seven camps for polio and 
measels in NWFP and noted that future vaccination campaigns 
would cover children accommodated in schools, government 
buildings, IDP camps, and private premises.  UNICEF is also 
providing teams with special training to vaccinate and 
register all children based with host families. (Note: UNICEF 
reports that the success of the vaccination campaigns has 
been due in large part to improved camp management at all the 
camps. End note.) 
 
¶26. (U) In addition, UNICEF reported providing safe drinking 
water and sanitation facilities for more than 22,000 people 
in four of the recently established camps to prevent the 
spread of diseases among children.  UNICEF is supporting 
latrines, water tanks, and boreholes for safe drinking water. 
 
POLITICAL UPDATE 
---------------- 
 
¶27. (U) On May 26, Pakistan Muslim League leader Chaudhry 
Shujaat Hussain visited the Takhtbai IDP camp in Mardan 
district.  During his visit, he promised the camp inhabitants 
that the PML would provide over 10,000 fans to the 26 camps 
as summer approached and turned over a small number of fans 
to the Takhtbai camp management.  As management attempted to 
distribute the fans, a riot took place and security forces 
were called in restrain the crowd. 
 
¶28. (U) In a May 25 briefing to the Peshawar Press Club, 
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) provincial ameer Sirajul Haq accused the 
Awami National Party (ANP), the ruling party of the NWFP, of 
sabotaging the peace agreement with the Taliban and the 
shari'a-based Nizam-e-Adl, which led to the "current 
disastrous situation" in Malakand Division.  In response, 
NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain said that the 
religious parties, including JI, had been taken into 
confidence before the Malakand operations were launched and 
the enforcement of the Nizam-e-Adl regulation had been 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001140  005 OF 005 
 
 
enforced in Malakand; therefore, JI and other religious 
parties had no justification in denouncing the ongoing 
situation in the division. 
PATTERSON