VZCZCXRO1363
PP RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1007/01 1311637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111637Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2667
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0243
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4864
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 1597
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 7200
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 6140
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3921
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK NY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0298
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001007 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID 
 
USAID FOR USAID/ANE, USAID/DCHA, USAID/OFDA, USAID/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREF PK AF EAID PREL PINR PTER ECON
SUBJECT:  PAKISTAN IDP CRISIS:  HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE UPDATE 
 
REF:  A) Islamabad 996  B) Islamabad 967 
      C) Islamabad 940 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  As of the evening of May 10, the total number of 
registered new caseload IDPs stood at approximately 360,000 (of whom 
15 percent are in camps).  According to UNHCR, outgoing Pakistan 
National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) Chief General Farooq Khan 
continues to challenge humanitarian community assessments of the IDP 
problem and contends that there is a very high, unreported IDP 
return rate.  Coordination with the GOP is likely to improve, 
however, as General Farooq is being replaced by General Nadeem, who 
successfully managed Pakistan's earthquake relief in 2005.  Through 
USAID/OTI, Embassy has provided capacity building to Northwest 
Frontier Province (NWFP) Secretariat in emergency coordination and 
public outreach, and USAID/OTI has provided 30,000 non-food item 
(NFI) family kits and 5,000 tents.  UNHCR reports that while Mardan 
and Jalala camps are filled, sufficient capacity remains in Swabi 
and Jalozai.  UNHCR is confident of the current NFI pipeline. 
UNICEF is providing tankered water to camps, and USAID/OTI has 
helped with generators and transformers for water provision.  World 
Food Program (WFP) estimates that it will need USD 100-150 million 
between now and the end of 2009 to feed the existing and new IDP 
populations.  Security concerns continue to impede humanitarian 
access, and as the large new IDP population finds its temporary 
place either in camps or outside them, there will be increasing need 
to address IDP protection needs and fuel and environmental impact 
considerations. Field-level donor coordination is increasing 
although needs will outstrip planned donations (septel).  The UN 
plans to submit its revised Humanitarian Response Plan to the donors 
early next week.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) UNHCR reports that as of the evening of Sunday, May 10, 
there were a total of 360,000 registered, new caseload IDPs from 
Dir, Buner and Swat.  Curfew was lifted on Sunday from 8:00 a.m. 
until the afternoon, and as in the preceding few days, lifting the 
curfew brought a flood of new IDPs.  In addition, IDPs arriving from 
Swat have reported that lack of wheeled transportation is actually 
slowing their exodus. (Note: Embassy is exploring renting buses to 
provide sorely needed transportation for IDPs coming out of 
Malakand.) In separate meetings on May 11, NWFP Chief Minister Hoti 
and 11th Corps Commander General Masood told Peshawar PO and 
Islamabad PolCouns that additional registration sites were needed 
although USG officials had previously heard that use of union 
councils would address this need. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Management of the increasing influx has brought some 
internal government conflict over IDP management and various 
coordination issues.  NWFP Minister of Social Welfare Sitara Ayaz 
has expressed concern to UNHCR about internal government competition 
for control of camp activity in Mardan and parallel IDP 
registration.  She indicated, however, that there remains a clear 
delineation of responsibilities in Swabi where camps are generally 
more organized.  Despite general consensus in the humanitarian 
community and local government, NDMA continues to dispute IDP 
numbers and has complained in a letter to the UN resident 
coordinator about UNHCR assertions that overall IDP count would 
reach over 1 million.  Meanwhile, the Chief Minister of the 
Northwest Frontier Province has said that 1.8 million people will be 
displaced. 
 
¶4. (SBU)(Comment:  General Farooq has been obstructive as NDMA 
coordinator, and the Prime Minister has decided to give the lead on 
IDP emergency assistance coordination instead to Pakistan Earthquake 
Relief and Rehabilitation Authority(ERRA) Chairman, and I Corps 
Commander, BG Nadeem.  Nadeem is well-known to the Embassy and donor 
community for leading the successful 2005 earthquake relief effort. 
According to 11th Corps Commander in Peshawar, General Masood, 
Nadeem is expected to travel to Peshawar as early as May 12 to begin 
his duties.  Nadeem is also well regarded by UN agencies although, 
according to UNHCR, direct coordination by a military representative 
is of concern as the military is "a party to the conflict" 
generating the IDPs.  End Comment.) 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001007  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The USAID-funded Capacity Building Program is providing 
computers and technical assistance to help the Chief Secretariat set 
up an Emergency Response Unit (ERU) to coordinate the provincial 
relief effort. Development Alternatives International (DAI) and the 
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) Secretariat have 
transferred two of the media cell public relations experts to help 
the Secretariat work with the press on coverage of the IDP 
situation. 
 
¶6. (SBU) UNHCR expresses confidence at this point in camp capacity. 
While Mardan and Jalala camps are filled to capacity, ample space 
remains in Jalozai (capacity up to 40,000) and Swabi (capacity of 
30,000 with expansion potential).  Thus far, UNHCR estimates that 
only 15 percent of registered IDPs are going to the camps.  Those 
outside camps are receiving assistance at humanitarian hubs although 
UNCHR is prioritizing camps, and assistance provision outside the 
camps is less organized and comprehensive.  IDPs are registering in 
Peshawar and elsewhere, and there continues to be movement farther 
afield.  Former NWFP Chief Minister Aftab Sherpao told Embassy some 
IDPs have traveled as far as Karachi to seek refuge. 
 
¶7. (SBU) UNHCR is currently confident of its NFI pipeline despite a 
close call and some looting over the weekend in Mardan.  Local 
procurement is possible for all items except plastic sheeting and 
mosquito nets.  However, UNHCR has just received 20,000 mosquito 
nets and is arranging from Dubai an airlift (full 747) of plastic 
sheeting, mosquito nets, and Rubb halls.  (Note:  Embassy is also 
working with CENTCOM Planners in a variety of areas to refine 
military response -- medical, engineering, supplies, airlift, etc. 
-- in the event of a humanitarian disaster declaration.)  Tents are 
procured locally and are not an issue (2000 in stock; 10,000 -- 
including 5,000 funded by USAID/OFDA and procured by IOM -- in 
pipeline).  In fact, according to UNHCR, Pakistan is the world's 
largest tent producer and produces most, if not all, of the tents 
that UNHCR uses worldwide.  UNHCR has 20,000 non-food item family 
kits in stock, 60,000 in the pipeline (30,000 USAID/OFDA-funded and 
IOM-procured, plus another 30,000 ordered by UNHCR), and intends to 
order another 20-30,000. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  UNICEF is providing water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) 
services in Jalala, Sheikh Shahzad, Sheikh Yasin, and Technical 
College-Takht-i-bai in Mardan District; and at Yar Hussain in Swabi. 
 ICRC and the Pakistani Red Crescent Society are doing so in Shah 
Mansoor camp in Swabi.  Water is being tankered at the moment, as 
UNICEF and the UN are unsure if some of these camps will be 
maintained in the long term.  Latrine construction has been ongoing 
in all these camps since their establishment.  UNICEF is currently 
discussing long-term responsibility for these services with its 
partner NGO agencies.  In addition, to respond to the NWFP Chief 
Secretary's request, OTI has instructed partner Creative Associates 
to meet an initial requirement of 20 emergency transformers and 20 
generators which can run water systems for IDP camps.  OTI has also, 
upon request, appointed a staff member to the NWFP Civil 
Secretariat's Emergency Response Unit. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  WFP estimates that it will need $100-150 million between 
now and the end of the calendar year to feed the existing and new 
IDP populations.  Existing stocks of wheat, pulses and vegetable oil 
are sufficient for three or four months for one million 
beneficiaries.  If the number rises above this, the stocks will last 
for two to three months.  WFP is borrowing 5,000 MT of wheat from 
their Afghan program, and they are buying 45,000 MT this week. 
Delivery of this wheat begins on May 16.  Other food basket items 
will be sporadic with the increased need.  Tea will be available in 
May, sugar and high-energy biscuits in June.  USAID/Food For Peace 
vegetable oil begins arriving at the end of May, and wheat flour and 
pulses arrive beginning in July or August. 
 
¶10. (SBU) While cooked food is being locally provided (and most IDPs 
are being hosted outside the camps), UNHCR is eager to move as 
quickly as possible to IDP preparation of WFP-provided food within 
the camps because previous experience during the earthquake was that 
cooked food presented quality, hygiene and profiteering issues. 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001007  003 OF 003 
 
 
Food preparation, however, will present fuel and environmental 
damage issues.  Currently firewood is not being provided (and there 
are no cook stoves in the NFI kits), but after immediate urgent 
needs are met, UNHCR will probably need to consider camp firewood 
provision, possibly accompanied by cash-for-work tree-planting. 
 
¶11. (SBU) While OCHA currently puts the number of old caseload IDPs 
at 540,000, it is unclear whether the small reduction (from 556,000) 
is due to successful scrubbing for double-registrations, to returns, 
or to both.  UNHCR notes, however, that registration of an 
additional 40,000 old caseload IDPs in Rawalpindi, Lahore and Punjab 
has not yet been taken into account.  Urban IDPs present different 
assistance concerns as they seek to obtain jobs rather than food or 
NFI support. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Security concerns continue to impede humanitarian access, 
and field staff of international implementing partners have 
expressed concern about the insufficiency of their security budgets 
and claim that the slow transfer of funds is increasing both risk 
and up-front financial burden they face.  Ensuring security of all 
international staff is also essential to maintain the smooth flow of 
international assistance.  With the outflow of IDPs from Swat, the 
humanitarian assistance community and donors have increasing concern 
of radicalization in camps. CM Hoti told PO and PolCouns that there 
were concerns about militants slipping into the camps.  In addition, 
as large IDP population finds its temporary place either in camps or 
outside them, there will be an increasing need to address protection 
needs beyond simple registration. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The UN is currently in the process of revising its 
February 2009 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP).  After a general 
coordination meeting on May 8, in which they briefed donors and 
implementing partners on the evolving IDP situation, UN agencies and 
clusters met over the weekend to begin assessing needs and planning 
for an IDP beneficiary population of more than 1.3 million.  The 
revised HRP will be reviewed in Geneva this week, and the UN, along 
with the GoP, plans to present it to the donor community early next 
week. 
 
 
PATTERSON