VZCZCXRO6669
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHCO #0200/01 1380640
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180640Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY COTONOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0924
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1445
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0440

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000200 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W ACOOK 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
PARIS FOR BKANEDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BN
SUBJECT: BENIN: POLITICAL UPDATE 
 
REFERENCE: (A) 08 COTONOU 201; (B) 08 COTONOU 795 AND PREVIOUS; (C) 
COTONOU 186 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Politicians have engaged in early and thinly veiled 
campaigning ahead of the 2011 presidential election. Some members of 
the contentious opposition have solicited the candidacy of Bio 
Tchane, a former Minister of Finance in Kerekou's administration, to 
challenge President Yayi in the 2011 presidential election while 
President Yayi's ministers have increased outreach efforts to 
support his agenda and publicize his achievements. Yayi has secured 
a very unstable majority in the National Assembly with the defection 
of a few deputies from the opposition G-13 to the Pro-Yayi Front 
Cowry for the Emergence of Benin (FCBE) and vice-versa. Tensions and 
personalized attacks are prevalent in the National Assembly where 
the government tries to push outstanding bills. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
--------------- 
Early Electoral 
Campaigning 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) President Yayi and his ministers have recently started to 
make extensive trips nationwide to kick off community projects and 
to attend groundbreaking ceremonies for infrastructure projects. 
Though these trips are consistent with Yayi's economic agenda for 
the emergence of Benin, many political observers view them as part 
of an overall strategy to increase popularity and engineer support 
for the 2011 presidential election. A case in point is the April 
mobilization of Yayi's cabinet to select cultivable lands and equip 
local communities with agricultural machines as part of the 
implementation of the government's ambitious agricultural 
development project. This event, which received heavy media 
coverage, was regarded by the opposition as a precocious pre 
electoral campaign activity. A few suspicious politicians blame Yayi 
for allegedly using government projects and means for 
electioneering. (Ref A). 
 
¶3. (SBU) The G-13, made up of business men, is frustrated inasmuch 
as Yayi has prevented it from accessing illegal sources of funding 
through anti-corruption measures he has taken since he became 
president. As a rule, the opposition's early electoral campaigning 
is more obvious, and very often takes the form of personalized 
attacks on Yayi and vitriolic statements against his policies (Ref 
B). 
 
----------------------------------- 
Opposition prepares a Challenger 
for the 2011 Presidential Elections 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) On April 26, Wallis Zoumarou, a FCBE deputy who defected in 
December 2008 from this group and joined the G-13 announced on 
television the candidacy of Bio Abdoulaye Tchane, a former Minister 
of Finance in Kerekou's administration, in the 2011 presidential 
elections and pledged that he would support him. Likewise, the G-13 
officially declared its support for Bio Tchane's candidacy (in the 
2011 presidential race) and has started coordinating marches 
supporting him in the north of Benin. 
 
¶5. (U) On the margins of the signature of a West-African Development 
Bank (BOAD)loan agreement for a road construction in northern Benin, 
Abdoulaye Bio Tchane, the president of the BOAD and former President 
Kerekou's Minister of Finance told the press that he was aware 
Beninese were concerned about his candidacy in the 2011 presidential 
election. He said that he could not speak to the issue since 
elections were still two years ahead. However, everybody has 
regarded his trip to Benin as a sign that he would join the race in 
¶2011. Many politicians concede that Bio Tchane will be a serious 
challenger to president Yayi, in consideration of his economic 
background and the strategy that politicians put in place to rally 
supporters for him. 
 
¶6. (U) The USD 16 million that the BOAD granted Benin is meant for 
the restoration and asphalting of the road linking Djougou to Ouake 
in northwestern Benin, Department of Donga, Bio Tchane's home 
district. It is clear that this move will increase his popularity in 
this particular area because possible supporters will likely credit 
him with this development project. Also, in early February, Bio 
Tchane made a trip to Djougou, a neighbor city to his hometown 
(Semere, located a few miles away), to gage his popularity. It is 
noteworthy that Yayi engaged in a similar exercise prior to his 
 
COTONOU 00000200  002 OF 002 
 
 
candidacy in the March 2006 presidential election, launching several 
BOAD-funded projects and engaging local communities, which 
tremendously increased his popularity. 
 
¶7. (U) Begin biographic note: Aboudoulaye Bio Tchane was born in 
1952, in Northwest Benin. After primary and secondary school 
education, he travelled to France where he obtained a masters degree 
in economics. Later on, he obtained a diploma in Islamic Banking. 
Then Director of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) 
Charles Konan Bani named him Vice Governor of the bank, where he 
worked from 1992 to 1998, when former president Kerekou appointed 
him Minister of Economy and Finance in his government. In January 
2002 he was named African Director for the International Monetary 
Fund. In January 2008, he was appointed President of the BOAD by 
country members of the Economic Community of West African States 
(ECOWAS), replacing Yayi Boni who won the presidency in March 2006. 
He is divorced and has three children. End note. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
------------------- 
Deputies' Defection 
sparks Polemics 
------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) On April 21, Rachidi Gbamadassi, an outspoken and fierce 
opponent to president Yayi and active member of the G-13,  announced 
in a press conference his defection from this group to the FCBE. His 
unexpected departure from the G-13 sparked fanciful rumors by 
politicians and the local press. One of these rumors says that he 
was allegedly bribed into joining the FCBE with USD 4 million (CFA 2 
billion). Some FCBE members have viewed this affinity with the FCBE 
in an unfavorable light since Gbadamassi is a controversial business 
man and political figure. As the Mayor of Parakou, he faced charges 
in the November 2005 murder of Severin Coovi, President of Parakou's 
Court of Appeals. He was arrested and held in custody for five 
months before his temporary release in April 2006. Conversely, 
FCBE's Deputy Chabi Tokou Dare resigned from FCBE and sided with the 
G 13 in April, complaining about FCBE methods. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Developments in the National Assembly have indicated a 
possible alliance of the Renaissance du Benin party (RB) and the 
FCBE since December 2008 when Rosine Soglo, the president of the RB, 
pushed her party into adopting the 2009 budget and more recently 
when she backed the adoption of the bill on the LEPI (Ref C). A 
source close to the president of the party confirmed to post that an 
undermining conflict within the party opposed the RB group willing 
to join FCBE and those RB members who wanted to stick to the 
opposition G-4. The first group backs Galiou Soglo, Rosine's 
youngest son and Yayi's minister of Youth, Sports and Leisure who 
entered the government in June 2007. While the RB complained that 
Yayi did not consult them before appointing him. Rosine is said to 
be putting pressure on the RB to have it allied with the FCBE. The 
opposing group within the party, led by Lehady Soglo, Rosine's 
eldest son and Deputy Major of Cotonou, chooses to stay with the G-4 
because he does not trust Yayi. The issue is pitting factions of the 
Soglo family against one another. 
 
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: No one can predict the outcome of the 2011 
presidential election because of constantly shifting political tides 
in Benin. Political scientists and journalists have ventured to 
present various scenarios based on fragile hypotheses. However, all 
agree that if Bio Tchane runs in the 2011 race, he will be a serious 
contender. Post will provide further comment on this issue as the 
political situation develops. 
 
BROWN