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R 220522Z MAY 09
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000151 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL IN ASEC CE
SUBJECT:  TAMIL NADU QUIET AFTER PRABHAKARAN'S DEATH 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Mixed but moderate responses in Tamil Nadu 
followed the news of the death of Velupillai Prabhakaran, leader of 
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), from relief to 
indifference to occasional outright denial.  Despite the efforts of 
political parties to turn concern over the Sri Lankan war into votes 
in Tamil Nadu, the issue had little impact on the recent elections. 
Fears of organized uprisings for the defeated LTTE turned out to be 
unwarranted, as sporadic and ineffectual episodes of protest fizzled 
out, and Tamils were left with only colorful conspiracy theories to 
mark the passing of the famed chief of the Tigers.  The historic 
ties between Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, only 30 miles apart, failed 
to inspire both voters and potential protesters, but security 
concerns still muted the commemoration of the 18th anniversary of 
Rajiv Gandhi's assassination by an LTTE suicide bomber.  Unease 
remains over what the few remaining LTTE supporters in the state 
might do.  End summary. 
 
Sri Lanka was not an election issue 
------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The AIADMK-led coalition tried to make heavy weather of 
the LTTE cause during the recent election campaign, hoping to 
capitalize on rising pro-Tamil sentiment in the state as images of 
civilian casualties dominated the state's airwaves and newspapers. 
But the electorate did not buy it.  The AIADMK alliance lost badly, 
falling far short of expectations it would win at least 30 seats in 
Tamil Nadu.  The parties that most aggressively sought to take 
advantage of the Sri Lankan cause fared worst at the polls:  the PMK 
lost all seven of the seats it contested; MDMK leader Vaiko could 
not even win in his hometown.  With the just-released images of LTTE 
leader Prabhakaran's body flashing on the television in front of 
him, PMK Member of Parliament Ambumani Ramadoss said that "Sri Lanka 
is a non-issue in Tamil Nadu.  The elections proved it."  Ramadoss 
told us that he did not expect any widespread reaction to the LTTE 
leader's death and the end of the island nation's civil war.   An 
editor with The Hindu echoed Ramadoss's remarks, saying that he 
feels there is little political support for the LTTE in the state. 
 
Prabhakaran's death doesn't provoke much reaction 
------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Some Indian Tamils and Sri Lankan Tamil refugees were 
reportedly upset by the news of Prabakharan's death, but fears of 
mob violence turned out to be unjustified.  Security was tightened 
throughout Tamil Nadu, especially in coastal areas and around 
refugee camps.  But 25 students blocking traffic, some apathetic 
stone-throwing, and one attempt to light a bus on fire and at 
self-immolation (the pro-LTTE protest technique most frequently used 
in the past) were the sum of local reaction.  S.C. Chandrahasan, a 
leader of Tamil Nadu's Sri Lankan refugee community, said that news 
of Prabhakaran's death was met with sadness by many of the refugees 
who, despite their distaste for the LTTE's tactics, believe that Sri 
Lanka's Sinhala community will treat Tamils even more poorly with 
Prabhakaran gone.  Chandrahasan added that the dominant sentiment is 
resignation, and that he does not believe there will be unrest in 
the refugee community in the wake of the LTTE's defeat.  The fate of 
the Tamil internally displaced persons (IDPs), and not a Tamil 
"Eelam" or separate state, has now become the main rallying cry for 
the Sri Lankan Tamils Protection Movement, which organized rallies 
in Tirunelveli and Tuticorin (in southern and coastal Tamil Nadu), 
peaceably calling for UN intervention to monitor the treatment of 
Tamil IDPs in Sri Lanka. 
 
Diehards refuse to believe he's dead 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Some die-hard Prabakharan supporters in Tamil Nadu refuse 
to accept that the LTTE leader is dead.  Assurances that Prabakharan 
was "hale and healthy" came from the Tamils' Protection Movement, as 
the MDMK's Vaiko refused to accept that the LTTE commander had been 
killed, and many speculated that the image shown on television was 
of one of Prabhakaran's body-doubles.  Pro-LTTE voices first 
insisted on footage of the body, then denied that the footage was 
genuine, and now are demanding DNA verification of the remains.  "It 
is a ploy," one refugee told reporters.  As with sightings of Elvis, 
glimpses of the man Indian military experts call a "slippery 
character" are predicted but have not yet been confirmed. 
 
Security concerns lead to low-key Rajiv Gandhi commemoration 
------------ 
 
CHENNAI 00000151  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) May 21 marked the 18th anniversary of the assassination of 
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi by an LTTE suicide bomber just outside 
of Chennai in Sriperumbudur, Tamil Nadu.  This year no member of the 
Gandhi family traveled to the site to mark the anniversary.  Media 
speculation centered around two possible explanations:  that either 
the Gandhi family wanted to avoid the potential embarrassment of 
facing pro-LTTE protests or that security considerations kept them 
away.  Karti Chidambaram, son of Home Minister P. Chidambaram, cited 
"security concerns" as the reason for the absence of the Gandhi 
family at the Sriperumbudur memorial.  Chidambaram told us he 
believes the general public in Tamil Nadu is opposed to the LTTE, 
but that there are a thousand or so "radicalized young men" who 
could prove dangerous.  B. Raman, a former Research and Analysis 
Wing official who follows the LTTE closely, wrote, "there are 
elements in Tamil Nadu who could get emotional over the death of 
Prabhakaran and self-motivate themselves to give vent to their anger 
through terrorism.  There is a need for a heightened alert for at 
least some months." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  The Sri Lankan civil war has long cast a shadow 
over Tamil Nadu.  Revulsion over the Rajiv Gandhi assassination in 
1991 moved support for the LTTE from polite society to the fringes 
of political discourse.  Sentiment shifted temporarily back in the 
direction of the LTTE last year as Tamil civilian casualties mounted 
in Sri Lanka.  The change in sentiment was shallow and short-lived: 
the parties that most vocally took up the Tamil cause lost badly in 
the recent elections.  But the refusal of some in Tamil Nadu to 
believe Prabhakaran is dead demonstrates the depth of pro-LTTE 
sentiment on the far periphery of the state's political culture. 
Their numbers are likely quite small, but they may be willing to 
extend aid and comfort to elements of the LTTE fleeing their 
military defeat on the island.  Tamil Nadu, which is a short boat 
ride away and where Sri Lankan Tamils can fairly easily blend, is a 
logical destination for the remnants of the defeated terrorist 
organization.  End comment. 
 
KAPLAN