VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0388/01 1481456
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281456Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4202
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000388 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CE LAMORE EB FOR JENNIFER BOGER 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/OIPR/ SILVIA SAVICH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL EU HU
SUBJECT: WHAT THE EP ELECTIONS MEAN FOR HUNGARY 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 362 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Landslide opposition victory is forecasted for 
Hungary's June 7 European Parliamentary (EP) elections when voters 
will elect 22 representatives to go to Brussels.  As expected, 
domestic issues dominate party campaigns.  With the MSzP expected to 
suffer a major defeat, opposition parties are hoping it will shake 
socialist MP support for the Bajnai government and lead to early 
elections.  The smaller MDF and liberal SzDSz parties are polling 
poorly and their failure to cross the five percent threshold will 
severely cloud their futures.  More worrying, however, is pollsters' 
predictions that the far-right Jobbik party could enter the European 
Parliament.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Hungarians go to the polls on June 7 to elect 22 members to 
the European Parliament, two fewer members than in 2004, as recent 
EU enlargement cost Hungary two seats.  Although 21 parties 
announced the intent to run in early 2009, eight finally managed to 
collect the 20,000 supporting signatures required by Hungary's 
electoral law.  Parties must receive five percent of all the votes 
cast in order to win a seat, but as there is no threshold for 
participation, the elections will be valid regardless of turnout. 
 
FORECAST: LOW TURNOUT AND FIDESZ LANDSLIDE 
 
¶3. (U) All polls predict a landslide victory for opposition party 
FIDESZ.  An early May Gallup poll found that FIDESZ can expect 66 
percent of all votes, while the MSzP would receive approximately 22 
percent.  Two other polling companies, Median and Szonda Ipsos, also 
forecast a near two-thirds victory for FIDESZ.  Think tank Vision 
Consulting predicts that FIDESZ and its Christian Democratic Party 
ally will register the largest victory throughout Europe, and note 
that it could have the effect of weakening support for the current 
government and possibly even trigger early elections. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Member of the MSzP Executive Committee Gergely Barandy told 
the Embassy May 22 that while a major defeat could trigger some 
irrational reactions within the MSzP, he does not believe early 
elections would be beneficial for the party.  He pointed out the 
austerity measures have a good potential to help Hungary get out of 
the crisis and "if people see the results - a much stronger forint 
and higher take-home pay due to tax cuts - then the expected 
elections in 2010 might hold a better outcome for the socialists." 
 
¶5. (SBU) It remains to be seen whether any of the smaller parties 
will be able to pass the five percent threshold.  According to 
latest surveys, neither the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) nor the 
Alliance of Free Democrats (SzDSz) would garner five percent of the 
votes if Hungary held general elections now.  However, because the 
turnout in EU elections is traditionally lower than in general 
elections, a low turnout would increase the chances of small parties 
reaching the five percent threshold.  Pollsters seem to agree that 
the far-right Jobbik party has a chance to obtain one seat on June 
¶7.  Participation is not expected to exceed that of the 2004 
elections, which was 38.5 percent.  Median predicts 37 percent 
turnout, while in April, Sonda Ipsos forecasted a turnout of 35 
percent. 
 
VIGOROUS FIDESZ CAMPAIGN 
 
¶6. (U) Stimulated by its wide lead in the polls, the opposition 
FIDESZ party is actively urging Hungarians to vote as a statement of 
opposition against the policies of the Bajnai government.   FIDESZ 
posters dominate the streets and bridges of Budapest with the 
slogans "Enough" and "Vote" and FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban himself 
has been on a nationwide campaign tour since May 4.  Domestic 
political issues rather than European ones are the focus of the 
FIDESZ campaign that harshly criticizes the austerity measures of 
the Bajnai cabinet.  Orban's main message is that the EU elections 
will be "a referendum about the performance of the current 
government."  FIDESZ spokesman Peter Szijjarto announced the party 
will not spend more than HUF 100 million (approximately USD 500,000) 
for the campaign as "it is distasteful to overspend in an economic 
crisis." 
 
¶7. (U) The party plans to retain most of its current MEPs (12 now in 
Brussels), but there are two new names on its election list: Orban's 
former chief of cabinet Tamas Deutsch and former House Speaker Janos 
Ader.  MEP Pal Schmitt, a former Olympic champion and Orban 
confidant, leads the FIDESZ list and polls forecast the party will 
win between 13 and 16 seats. 
 
LANGUID SOCIALISTS 
 
¶8. (SBU) The MSzP campaign lacks the energy and intensity of that of 
FIDESZ, and many believe that the MSzP's anticipated poor showing on 
election day is causing them to downplay the significance of the 
elections.  Although party president Ildiko Lendvai asserted the 
party takes the EU elections seriously and will spend HUF 100 
million (USD 500,000) for the campaign, it has less visibility than 
that of FIDESZ.  The only tangible event in addition to posters and 
some resounding phrases ("we want to import good solutions from the 
EU rather than export domestic conflicts there") was when they 
kicked off their campaign on May Day attracting a small crowd in 
Budapest's City Park where the newly inaugurated PM Gordon Bajnai 
explained the need for the austerity measures. 
 
¶9. (U) Former Foreign Minister Kinga Goncz tops the MSzP list 
followed by two current MEPs, Zita Gurmai and Edit Herczog.  Goncz 
said recently the party's MEPs in Brussels should do their best 
during the coming years to maximize EU funds for Hungary.  According 
to surveys, the MSzP can expect to win five to six seats out of the 
22 for Hungary.  The party currently has nine representatives in the 
EP. 
 
THE REAL QUESTION: WHO COMES IN THIRD? 
 
¶10. (U) Since most expect a strong FIDESZ victory over the MSzP in 
the June 7 elections, the real question is which party comes in 
third.  The Alliance of Free Democrats (SzDSz), who performed 
surprisingly well in 2004 - winning over 7 percent and two seats - 
performs poorly in all surveys.  Their departure from the government 
coalition with the MSzP a year ago did not result in higher support, 
and it is questionable whether the main election theme on their 
posters - "who do you want, the radicals or the liberals?" - will 
mobilize enough voters to pass the threshold.  SzDSz MEP Istvan 
Szent-Ivanyi, who is the chair of the SzDSz National Council, leads 
the party list. 
 
¶11. (SBU) In a May 22 telephone conversation, SzDSz executive Laszlo 
Csozik painted a fairly negative picture of the Free Democrats' 
situation, confirming rumors that internal party fights continue and 
that a party split is possible should the SzDSz lose its presence in 
Brussels.  He quoted party President Gabor Fodor to have said that, 
"if we do not reach the five percent, then we won't make it to the 
Hungarian Parliament in 2010 either." 
 
¶12. (U) The Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF), which recently lost 
its parliamentary caucus in the Hungarian Parliament due to internal 
party conflicts (its former members continue to serve as independent 
MPs), faces problems similar to those of the Free Democrats.  Poor 
showings in public opinion surveys suggest the party may lose its 
only mandate in the European Parliament. 
 
¶13. (SBU) In a surprising move, former MSzP finance minister Lajos 
Bokros leads the MDF list - a well-known name in Hungarian politics 
who may attract as many voters as he may alienate.  (Note: a 
top-notch economist, Bokros' package of austerity measures in 1995 
helped stabilize the Hungarian economy.  Nevertheless, many people 
view him as a "ruthless exploiter."  End Note). 
 
¶14. (SBU) MDF Presidium member Szabolcs Kerek-Barczy was more 
optimistic when he told the Embassy May 22 that Bokros and the MDF 
have 13 percent support among decided voters and predicted the party 
may win two seats.  (Note: Most polls do not show this level of 
support for MDF.  End note.)  He believes the turnout will be under 
40 percent and emphasized "our campaign focuses on uncertain voters 
and we try to convince them to choose us rather than the two large 
parties." 
 
FAR-RIGHT SUCCESS POSSIBLE 
 
¶15. (SBU) Just as the case with the SzDSz and the MDF, the 
non-parliamentary far-right radical Jobbik party also hopes to reach 
the five percent threshold due to low turnout on June 7.  The 
economic crisis and dissatisfaction with the ruling socialist party 
is resulting in increased support for the far right (Reftel), and 
which could result in Jobbik winning a seat in June.  Surprisingly, 
polls reveal that support is increasing for both Jobbik and FIDESZ, 
suggesting that both parties are attracting disillusioned former 
socialist supporters. 
 
¶16. (SBU) The Jobbik list is led by Krisztina Morvai, a professor of 
law who on several occasions has voiced extremist views - including 
anti-Semitic statements - in public fora.  Besides tough criticism 
of the Bajnai administration, Jobbik also attacks FIDESZ claiming 
"it is too soft and has been unable to remove the socialists from 
power." 
 
COMMENT: IMPACT ON DOMESTIC POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 
 
¶17. (SBU) As has often been the case, domestic politics, rather than 
broader European issues, are taking center stage in Hungary's 
European Parliamentary elections.  While the expected FIDESZ victory 
will likely provide a springboard to the party in its preparations 
for the 2010 general elections, the EP election results have the 
potential to considerably shake up the rest of the domestic 
political landscape.  The governing MSzP's popularity has fallen to 
levels not seen since the early 1990s, and it appears likely they 
will suffer a major defeat in June.  Such a result could create 
panic within the party, whose MPs are already under pressure for 
supporting austerity measures that adversely impact their 
traditional voter base.  Socialist MPs may decide that early general 
elections are no longer the "worst case scenario," as a FIDESZ 
victory in early elections would force the opposition to bear some 
of the load in carrying out austerity measures, possibly improving 
the MSzP's chances in the October 2010 local elections. 
 
¶18. (SBU) If the SzDSz does not pass the five percent threshold, it 
may exacerbate the leadership conflict between current President 
Fodor and his predecessor and now caucus leader Janos Koka.  A 
similar failure for the MDF may cost party President Ibolya David 
her position, as she will attract blame for choosing a former 
socialist to lead the party's electoral list.  This could make it 
even more difficult for SzDSz and the MDF to meet the five percent 
threshold in the general elections.  Moreover, many see a Jobbik 
success in the EP elections as an increasing possibility.  Because 
of the traditionally higher turnout in general elections, however, a 
Jobbik success in winning a seat in the EP elections will not 
necessarily mean they will receive enough support to meet the five 
percent threshold to make it into the national Parliament in the 
general elections.  It would, however, help them galvanize support 
toward that goal.  End comment. 
 
LEVINE