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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000715 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: DONNYBROOKS AND DEBACLES: BELGIUM'S REGIONAL 
ELECTION CAMPAIGNS HEAT UP 
 
¶1. Summary: The Belgian regional and European elections will 
be held on June 7, and both Flemish and Francophone parties 
have used mudslinging tactics to get ahead in the polls.  For 
the Flemish elections, the media fight between the Liberals 
and the populist Lijst Dedecker have hurt both parties, and 
allowed the Christian Democrats to maintain a lead.  It is 
unclear whether these three parties could form a center-right 
coalition with a fourth party or whether a center left 
coalition might be formed that includes the Liberals and the 
weaker Socialists or even the Greens.  On the Francophone 
side, the Liberals and Socialists are fighting hard for first 
place; the Liberals would like to exclude the Socialists from 
the new regional government, but it is unclear if the Greens 
or the Center Humanist party would join them in a coalition. 
The parties forming the post-June 7 regional governments 
might make strong arguments that the national government 
should be reshuffled to match the regional mix.  The European 
election campaigns between former Liberal PM Guy Verhofstadt 
and former Christian Democrat PM Jean-Luc Dehaene have not 
resulted in the same level of vitriol or picked up as much 
press.  End Summary. 
 
INTRODUCTION 
 
¶2.  Mudslinging, scandals and defections have so far 
dominated the Belgian campaign for the June 7 regional and 
European elections.  On the weighty issues, like the soaring 
budget deficit, political leaders are treading with caution. 
They know that after June 7 the federal government will have 
to tackle the soaring budget deficit, and that regional 
governments will have no choice but to cut their expenditures. 
 
FLUCTUATIONS AND FIGHTING IN FLANDERS 
 
¶3.  The Flemish regional campaign centers on the contest 
between Christian Democrats (CD&V) and liberals (Open VLD) 
for leadership of the region.  Five years ago, the CD&V had 
coaxed the nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) into an 
alliance.  This combination (CD&V-N-VA) was successful, not 
only in the 2004 elections but also in the general elections 
of 2007 and was easily the largest party grouping.  The 
alliance ended in late 2008, and the CD&V is now running 
alone.  At the outset of the campaign the Open VLD sensed 
that it had a real chance at beating the CD&V.  By becoming 
the largest party of the region, it would be in a position to 
claim the Minister-President portfolio for Open VLD party 
president Bart Somers.  However, Somers made a serious 
blunder by offering in writing a parliamentary seat or 
matching pay to a potential defector from another rival 
party, Lijst Dedecker (LDD).  Somers' blunder forced the 
party to drop him from the top of the list and substitute 
regional minister Dirk Van Mechelen at the head of the list 
in the last two weeks before the election.  The ensuing media 
vitriol between Open VLD and the populist LDD has lowered the 
standing of both parties, and allowed the CD&V to rise into 
the front runner's position.  At this stage of the campaign, 
a continuation of the current three-party coalition of CD&V, 
Open VLD, and Socialist (sp.a) appears to be the most likely 
outcome of the election.  However, the current weakness of 
the sp.a could pave the way for smaller parties to join a 
coalition.  The most recent poll had the sp.a at 14.2 percent 
of the popular vote, a historic low for the party.  Until 
recently, the Greens (Groen!) seemed unlikely to perform 
well, but the most recent poll showed their support rising to 
almost nine percent. 
 
¶4.  Disseminating a new brand of populism, the LDD list of 
Representative Jean-Marie Dedecker is an unknown quantity for 
political pundits.  A strong LDD showing t on June 7 would 
likely come at the expense of Open VLD, Dedecker's former 
party, and the extreme-right Vlaams Belang (VB).  With the 
new LDD option for right wing voters, the VB will not be able 
to repeat its previous 24 percent showing in the 2004 
regional elections.  Dedecker dreams of forming a 
center-right coalition composed of CD&V, Open VLD and his own 
party.  The most recent polls show that these three parties 
might need the support of N-VA to command a majority in the 
Flemish regional parliament.  The majority of the Flemish 
vote will be center-right and right wing, but will not 
necessarily lead to a center-right Flemish regional 
government. 
 
HOW GREEN WAS MY PARTY: MR COURTS THE FRANCOPHONE GREENS 
 
¶5. It has been the life-long ambition of Francophone Liberal 
(MR) leader Didier Reynders to break the Socialist hegemony 
in Francophone Belgium.  He failed in the regional elections 
of 2004, and his party was kicked out of the regional 
 
BRUSSELS 00000715  002 OF 002 
 
 
coalitions in Wallonia and Brussels.  His stated goal of 
removing the Socialists from office has resulted in open and 
unending feuding between the Socialist PS and Liberal MR, 
impacting negatively on the performance of the current 
federal government, of which they both are part of.  The 
mudslinging between the two has led to the current insult 
hurling between the PS and MR leaders.  The most recent polls 
indicate that the Socialists have the upper hand in Wallonia, 
and that Reynders will have to seek the support from third 
parties to overcome the Socialists.  In Wallonia the 
Christian Democratic CDH is locked in a contest with the 
Greens (Ecolo) for third position.  Ecolo long ago shed its 
traditional green trappings.  Contrary to its Flemish 
counterpart, Ecolo has learned that a leftist view of world 
affairs does not win votes.  Ecolo is currently experiencing 
a spectacular climb in the polls, and could become the second 
largest party of Brussels and third largest of Wallonia. 
Reynders is actively courting Ecolo, hoping to form a 
coalition of Liberals, Christian Democrats and Greens. 
 
THE CAPITAL OF BELGIUM AND OF EUROPE 
 
¶6. In the predominantly Francophone Brussels capital region, 
the Flemish parties have a guaranteed number of seats in the 
regional parliament and ministries in the government.  This 
legal requirement results in large coalitions.  The MR is the 
largest party of the region, but in 2004 it was excluded from 
the majority coalition by a Socialist-led coalition of 
Christian Democrats, the Francophone Greens and Open VLD, six 
parties in total. 
 
¶7. So far, the European parliament campaign has failed to 
appear on the radar screen. Two former prime ministers, Guy 
Verhofstadt of Open VLD and Jean-Luc Dehaene from CD&V, are 
running for office, but they have decided to avoid personal 
attacks, opting for academic discussions on the future of the 
Union.  There are slight differences of opinion between the 
two.  Verhofstadt is positioning himself as the champion of a 
federal Europe, while his older colleague is focusing on 
steps to achieve more cohesion among the 27 member states. 
Verhofstadt has let it be known that he would not serve as 
Belgium's EU commissioner under outgoing EU Commission 
President Jose Manuel Barroso. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8. Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, one of the country's 
most seasoned politicians, has avoided involvement in the 
regional and European campaigns from the outset.  He knows 
that joining the fray would undermine the federal 
government's stability.  The latest verbal confrontation 
between his Vice Premiers Reynders and Laurette Onkelinx 
(PS), and her veiled threat to leave the national government, 
has demonstrated just how real that danger is.  The outcome 
of June 7 will impact the federal government.  It will most 
likely cause a federal government reshuffle, and in a worst 
case scenario result in a protracted crisis.  Van Rompuy has 
repeatedly stated that after the election, the federal 
government will have to tackle the rapidly deteriorating 
budget situation.  To achieve his goal he will need the full 
cooperation from the new regional governments.  Consequently, 
a federal government wth the same parties that run the new 
regional governments would be his best outcome. 
 
BUSH 
.