VZCZCXRO4240
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLB #0541/01 1341122
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141122Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4882
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3774
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3952
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000541

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S BRIMMER
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT
DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON
DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT
OVP FOR HMUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL DOWNBEAT ON MARCH 14'S CHANCES

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------

¶1. (C)  UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams
raised with NEA DAS Hale and Ambassador the idea of delaying
any possible Israeli withdrawal from Ghajar village until
after the Lebanese election on June 7, so as to avoid
opponents of the Siniora government using the charge that
Israel is trying to help Siniora.  He emphasized that
whenever the Israelis did withdraw, it should be without
conditions.  Williams travels to Israel to discuss Ghajar May
¶10.  On the elections, Williams thought March 14 was not
doing well and their opponents might win a five or six seat
majority in the new parliament.  The meeting in Williams'
office also covered post-election scenarios, the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon, and USG officials trip to Syria on May
¶7.  End Summary.

¶2. (C) Visiting NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale and
Ambassador met with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
(UNSCOL) Michael Williams on May 9 at the new UNSCOL
headquarters in the Beirut suburb of Yarze.  DCM and UNSCOL
staffers Jack Christofides and Rami Shehadi also attended.

Ghajar -- Israel Must Not Set Conditions
----------------------------------

¶3. (C) Williams said he would travel to Israel the next day,
May 10, to meet with Deputy FM Danny Ayalon and MFA Director
General Yossi Gal.  He did not expect a breakthrough on
Ghajar, but hoped to get an indication of what the Israelis
might do.  He told DAS Hale it was critical that the Israelis
not "ask for anything" in return for withdrawal from Ghajar.

¶4. (C) Williams raised the idea that, at this point, perhaps
it was best for Israel not to withdraw from Ghajar before the
June 7 Lebanese elections.  When there was a recent Israeli
press report saying Israel might withdraw to help PM Siniora
and his allies in the June 7 vote, Siniora had felt obliged
to distance himself from that, in order to avoid having the
opposition claim that Israel was helping him.  Williams said
March 14 stalwarts Marwan Hamadeh and Mohamed Chatah had
urged such a delay when he spoke to them three days before at
the Ambassador's reception for former Secretary Madeleine
Albright and an NDI delegation.  Williams emphasized that if
the Israelis attempted to put conditions on their withdrawal,
it would hurt March 14, and the coalition, he thought, is
nervous about that.

¶5. (C) DAS Hale responded that the USG supported Israeli
withdrawal from Ghajar.  It would be seen as a breakthrough,
fulfill a key element of UNSCR 1701, and be a
confidence-building measure between the new Israeli
government and the Lebanese government.

¶6.  DAS Hale said that during his meeting with President
Sleiman the previous day, Sleiman had expressed concern that
if the GOI resettles Ghajar citizens in Israel as part of its
withdrawal, squatters might take over the empty houses, and
he told Williams it would be important to address that if and
when UNIFIL took over Ghajar.

¶7. (C) The Ambassador asked if UN U/S for Peacekeeping LeRoy
had made progress on obtaining additional cluster munitions
strike data from Israel.  Christofides responded in the
negative, adding that at the recent Tripartite meeting of
UNIFIL and the Lebanese and Israeli armed forces, UNIFIL
Commander Graziano had pushed back when the Israeli
representative had said this was not a requirement of UNSCR
¶1701.  The Israeli also downplayed the significance of
upcoming Israeli military exercises near the border on or
about May 31.  When the Lebanese asked for a public Israeli
statement that they are not significant, the Israeli
representative agreed to ask the GOI to consider that.

Elections -- Opposition
May Get Five Seat Majority
--------------------------

¶8. (C) DAS Hale said he came to Lebanon with an impression
that the March 14 coalition was stumbling.  "I share that,"
Williams noted, saying that he sees an increased possibility
the opposition will gain the majority with a five-six seat
margin.  He thought the release of the four generals,
Jumblatt's critical comments about Maronites and weak March
14 campaigning had hurt the coalition.  He agreed with DAS
Hale that former PM Najib Mikati is seeking to become PM
again in the new government.  The two agreed that Speaker
Nabih Berri seems to be hinting that he may reposition
himself slightly after the election based on his warm words
for Jumblatt and his cool reaction to the release of the four
generals, a stark contrast to the public, positive reaction
of Berri's current ally Hizballah.

¶9. (C) DAS Hale noted that while in Saudi Arabia before
coming to Beirut, he had discussed the Lebanese elections
with former Ambassador to Lebanon and current Minister Khoja
-- who is "all over the election" -- and a son of the King.
The Saudis feel they have provided all the funding they have
to in support of the Lebanese election and if it has been
managed poorly by Hariri and others, it's not their problem,
but they are nervous about the outcome.  DAS Hale said he
also was struck by the Saudis current feeling that Syria has
not responded to their overtures to improve relations.

Post-Election Scenarios
-----------------------

¶10. (C) Williams said he has been expressing alarm to
Lebanese interlocutors to no avail about the lack of a
Constitutional Council to resolve election conflicts owing to
a dispute over the final five members.  The international
election observers will "tear you apart" over this, Williams
said he has told the Lebanese.  He hopes Interior Minister
Baroud will get this done.

¶11. (C) Williams predicted there would be national unity
government again, but there could be a fight over the issue
of the blocking third in the cabinet.  Hizballah will argue
that the blocking third structure has worked in the current
government and should be continued, he thought.  DAS Hale
said that if March 14 falters, it is likely the USG would
have to consider working more with the Presidency,
post-election.

¶12. (C) Williams said Hizballah had shown a hardened attitude
in his recent meetings with them, which he attributed to
anger over the reference to Hizballah interference in Egypt
in the recent UNSCR 1559 report prepared by Terje Roed
Larson.  Hizballah is embarrassed and unhappy about the
public disclosure or their activities outside of Lebanon,
Williams said.

Special Tribunal -- Chief Judge
Not Coming Until After Election
-------------------------------

¶13. (C) Williams said he would be traveling to the Hague in
ten days to give testimony in the Yugoslavia war crimes
tribunal (he served in the former Yugoslavia during the
mid-1990s conflict) and would see officials of the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) while there.  He revealed that he
had recommended that STL head judge Antonio Cassese postpone
his planned mid-May trip to Lebanon so as to avoid
election-season sensitivities.  Williams said that he worried
about the impact on the Tribunal's progress resulting from
the resignation of STL registrar Robin Vincent, prompted by
Vincent's "disastrous" relations with lead prosecutor Daniel
Bellemare.  He did not expect any STL indictments this year,
pointing out that the active trial for which he will be
providing testimony soon concerned crimes from 15 years ago.
This fact "stuns Lebanese interlocutors" who are hoping for
fast action by the STL, Williams said.

¶14. (C) On the release of the four generals, Williams thought
it could have been done as early as March 2008, minimizing
the negative impact for the March 14 of the release that took
place a few weeks ago, so close to the election.

Syria
-----

¶15. (C) DAS Hale told Williams that no new ground had been
broken during the visit to Syria two days before by NEA A/AS
Jeffrey Feltman and NSC Senior Director Daniel Shapiro.  The
Syrians considered that they had signaled a major opening
with small steps such as allowing the U.S-supported language
school to reopen and were annoyed the USG had not responded
with more, such as a Special Envoy Mitchell visit.

¶16. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.
SISON